Election 2010, who do you think will win and why??

[Mark from Brisbane]

Rusty was just looking at the latest calculator on the ABC website, Antony Green has Gillard winning by 83 to 66 based on the Newspoll results dated 15th August.

he's usually spot on, BUT I take polls with a grain of salt...so many people are prepared to say anything to a person calling BUT do they vote the same way??

 

[Liueli of Brookvale]

Tony Abbott and The Australian Liberal Party.. Because they're proven.

 

[bob dylan]

[quote author=bob dylan link=topic=184174.msg284545#msg284545 date=1281875350]
[quote author=ManlyBacker link=topic=184174.msg284526#msg284526 date=1281871535]
[quote author=bob dylan link=topic=184174.msg284443#msg284443 date=1281852951]

Libs/Nat $3.60
Labor $1.36

Market is 101.3%

I come up with around 112% BD. I always find the 'odds on' calcs difficult. Let me know how you got to 101.3% as I always like to know more about odds. Cheers.
[/quote]

To be truthful I copied it straight from Betfair.

But 20 odd years working part time for bookies and and pro punters I can help you out here I think. Off the top of my head I now $3.60 is old odds of about 11/4, and $1.36 is roughly 4/11 which I know is 100% market.

$3.60 = 27.77% (100/3.60)
$1.36 = 73.53% (100/1.36)

Hey 27.77 plus 73.53 = 101.3

http://www.onlinegambling.com/sports/odds-converter-calculators.htm
[/quote]

Thanks heaps BD for taking the time and posting that link.

I had a late night brain freeze and instead of adding one to the traditional odds (before dividing into 100) I was deducting 1. Doh!

Incredible that bookies can run a book at just 1.3% all the same.
[/quote]

Betfair is not a Bookies style betting outlet it is a betting exchange where the participants can either be the bookie or the punter ie you can back to win or lose.

It is the worlds biggest betting community with over 15 million bets placed each day.

They make their money by taking a commission from all winning bets, 5% is the norm for betfair.

 

[bob dylan]

Updated odds from Betfair with $2,020,000 in the pool.

Labor $1.38
Coalition $3.45

Thats 101.4%. I notice a big bet of $3000 on Labor waiting to be matched at !.40 but only small amounts for the Coalition.

Any Lib/Nat supporters who think they are on a winner there is some great value here, $3.45 in a two horse race.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

It's funny that the gap should be so big when the last Newspoll (just released) show this as 50-50, we could end up with a hung parliment

 

[The Gronk]

Polls are all over the place.galaxy has it at 52-48.  We will just have to wait and see I guess. 

 

[CussCuss]

Again, polls have a too small sample size and are usually biased towards a particular segment anyway.

In other news, shocking liberal policy, screwing over poor people.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/coalition-to-cut-funds-for-poor-students-20100819-12s1z.html

They are such good economic managers, look how they are proposing to reduce the defecit! All we have to do is get that number down and everything will be beer and skittles.

 

[bob dylan]

Updated odds from Betfair with $2,020,000 in the pool.

Labor $1.38
Coalition $3.45

Thats 101.4%.

Updated odds from Betfair with $2,276,000 in the pool.

Labor $1.50
Coalition $2.98

Thats 100.2%.

Money is pooring in.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

I fear this

LNP 72 seats
Labor 74 Seats

3 Independant's

AND one Green (Melbourne) who then (I think) holds the balance of power....add to that the increase in what they (Greens) will get in the Senate and god help us.....the Lunatic Assylum will be in control!!

 

[ManlyBacker]

Hurry up - you soapboxers only have one day left

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

OH come now MB, you have to admit this has been entertaining??

 

[ManlyBacker]

I'm pretty over it all. The ads are dreadfully negative from both sides. There is a bee's dick difference between either side. Only at election time does any money get promised to fix the problems that should have already been fixed. I lost being entertained by Aussie politics a long time ago. It doesn't mean I don't support the system we have, but I don't get inspired by it.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

No mate not the election entertaining, more the toing and froing we here have had since I started this thread 5 weeks ago.

I actually agree with you, they are both so in the middle it's just a personality thing now, a bit like the US Presidential Election.

I was so glad to wake up Thursday to not hear or see any advertisements again, and have not bought a paper since then to see the last of their garbage advertisements.

The sooner the negative advertising stops the better for me, it's just bull****.

 

[ManlyBacker]

No mate not the election entertaining, more the toing and froing we here have had since I started this thread 5 weeks ago.

Some has been good. But I must be getting very jaded as reading post after post where terms such as douche bag are thrown around, the lack of respect shown to individuals, and the inability to reason just leave me cold. Rusty injected some interesting thoughts and so have many others including yourself, but recently I get the feeling this site is turning into a turd sandwich.

 

[byso]

That Red headed f-ck only has negative comments about a 3 year old work choices policy that's dead. Her campaign should be enough to even lead our swinging voter CW wonder.

 

[ManlyBacker]

That Red headed f-ck only has negative comments about a 3 year old work choices policy that's dead. Her campaign should be enough to even lead our swinging voter CW wonder.

What the hell. You'll be eating Loser sandwich after Saturday night byso! THe Hockey team will be lining up the Mad Monk with swords.

 

[clontaago]

Better to be a red head than a red neck like you Byso.

 

[Rusty]

All getting a bit personal guys. Lets keep it nice. 

We all have to live together after the result is in, regardless of who gets in.

 

[clontaago]

Rusty no offence but you're a newcomer here and have no idea how much of a knob Byso is.

 

[byso]

Totally uncalled for Clontago.

Not a red neck, never voted Labor