Election 2010, who do you think will win and why??

[Mark from Brisbane]

Does anyone think the KDudd interview on the Chan 7 Sunday show OR the Latham debacle on 60 Seconds will have any impact???

I watched the KDudd one and all I thought was gained is more people will feeled gutted that he was shafted.

It's also funny the different results the Polls are getting. Front page of yesterdays Sunday Mail reads "bloodbath" and has the Galaxy Poll suggesting Labor will lose 17 seats and gain 2 and that Abbot (as a result) will be swept into power..then todays Newspoll has Labor with a healthy 52% to 48% lead...go figure!

 

[ManlyBacker]

60 Minutes has gone from a respected program to trash on the same level as TDT and ACA. It is bad enough that they selected Latham to act as a 'journalist' but I caught the end of his segment where he argued that Australians should vote informal. That they could air such a ridiculous suggestion says it all.

 

[The Gronk]

Does anyone think the KDudd interview on the Chan 7 Sunday show OR the Latham debacle on 60 Seconds will have any impact???

I watched the KDudd one and all I thought was gained is more people will feeled gutted that he was shafted.

It's also funny the different results the Polls are getting. Front page of yesterdays Sunday Mail reads \"bloodbath\" and has the Galaxy Poll suggesting Labor will lose 17 seats and gain 2 and that Abbot (as a result) will be swept into power..then todays Newspoll has Labor with a healthy 52% to 48% lead...go figure!

Antony Green from the ABC says that someone stuffed up on that galaxy one and that it should really work out to be 51/49 ALP. 

Honestly I think most of these polls are rubbish - for example a Morgan poll on Thursday had the ALP ahead 57.5 - 42.5, which would result in the biggest victory in Australian history.  Then on Sunday I see the Morgan CEO on TV telling us with a straight face that their marginal seats polling shows the ALP losing ~20 seats. 

Their results are just contradictory and therefore meaningless. 

The most respected poll seems to be Newspoll, which looks to be predicting close to a status quo result at this stage.

The last week will be very important though.   

 

[bob dylan]

I think the best guide is the betting, I noticed yesterday on Betfair two punters (or maybe the same one) wanting 2 x $2000 bets on the ALP, one at $1.40 and the other at $1.41.

 

[The Gronk]

Well the thing is that the betting goes largely on what the polls say, but yes the ALP is at very short odds for a party about to lose. 

 

[bob dylan]

No, No No professional punters do not rely on polls.

I have worked for one and know plenty of others, they do their own research/form.

 

[The Gronk]

So I assume they ring around all the marginal seats to work out how people are going to be voting?

Its silly to suggest that the polls are ignored by punters, maybe some, but certainly not all.  The betting market tightened a couple of weeks ago following some polls putting the Libs in front, who's odds blew out again in the last week following more favourable polling for the ALP. 

 

[CussCuss]

Polls usually have a **** sample size/audience.

Betting has shown to be pretty accurate historically iirc.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Yeah again I'll be surprised if it's not a slim Labor victory...wether it be the money (betting) or the polls making that call.

As I said in an earlier post, the Mr "Jo Average" isn't hurting enough yet to make a change....that's what changes government (usually) although perhaps Gronk and I disagree on this.

To be honest (with myself) this is what I expect to see.

1) I turn on the ABC at 5.30pm on Saturday....I imagine they'll have a news half hour prior to the main event and we might get some last minute predictions, most of which will be wrong.
2) At 6.00pm the election telecast starts, and away goes Antony and the crew
3) By about 6.30pm we'll have a very good idea as to the swings and roundabouts based on scrutineer information
4) By 7.00pm it will be clear that Labor aren't experiencing a "rout" and may lose 2 or 3 seats in QLD, perhaps 1 in NSW and maybe 1 in WA.
5) By 7.30pm one of the Labor officials will be almost ready to call the election, although just in case this won't happen until much later in the night
6) About 9.30pm the current PM will be thanking the faithful for keeping her in a job, but just prior to that Abbot will come on and concede defeat, so about 9.15pm

OH and we are sure to get "this is a win for the ages" etc etc blah blah...jeez I can't wait for that

Personally I have never ever thought that the LNP had a chance in this election, the win in 2007 was just far to great...their best bet would be to significantly claw back the losses and poise themselves for a win in 2013 after the Labor party has imploded.

I may well be wrong, but I'll be pointing this post out to you all come Sunday morning if I am right.

Regardless (and it's not over yet) this has been an interesting thread, not a whole lot of us involved but those that are are passionate!!

 

[The Gronk]

Yeah again I'll be surprised if it's not a slim Labor victory...wether it be the money (betting) or the polls making that call.

As I said in an earlier post, the Mr \"Jo Average\" isn't hurting enough yet to make a change....that's what changes government (usually) although perhaps Gronk and I disagree on this.

To be honest (with myself) this is what I expect to see.

1) I turn on the ABC at 5.30pm on Saturday....I imagine they'll have a news half hour prior to the main event and we might get some last minute predictions, most of which will be wrong.
2) At 6.00pm the election telecast starts, and away goes Antony and the crew
3) By about 6.30pm we'll have a very good idea as to the swings and roundabouts based on scrutineer information
4) By 7.00pm it will be clear that Labor aren't experiencing a \"rout\" and may lose 2 or 3 seats in QLD, perhaps 1 in NSW and maybe 1 in WA.
5) By 7.30pm one of the Labor officials will be almost ready to call the election, although just in case this won't happen until much later in the night
6) About 9.30pm the current PM will be thanking the faithful for keeping her in a job, but just prior to that Abbot will come on and concede defeat, so about 9.15pm

OH and we are sure to get \"this is a win for the ages\" etc etc blah blah...jeez I can't wait for that

Personally I have never ever thought that the LNP had a chance in this election, the win in 2007 was just far to great...their best bet would be to significantly claw back the losses and poise themselves for a win in 2013 after the Labor party has imploded.

I may well be wrong, but I'll be pointing this post out to you all come Sunday morning if I am right.

Regardless (and it's not over yet) this has been an interesting thread, not a whole lot of us involved but those that are are passionate!!

I agree with the bit you said I might disagree Mark.  The 'sins' of the ALP in the last term don't feel to me like enough to throw out a government, which rarely happens.  However these sins were paid for with the scalp of a prime minister, which changes everything.  Either that means the ALP has moved on (forward?) from any criticisms, or they have forfeited being 'the government' and voters are deciding from scratch. 

I think the ALP will do better than expected in QLD and NSW, but will lose the odd seat.  I will bet there will be a couple of massive swings either way. 

I will predict Bowman being one where the Libs do exceedingly well, Longman as one where the ALP holds on against expectations, and Aston as one where the ALP gets a bigger than expected swing. I see the ALP winning McEwen and La Trobe here in Vic as well. 

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

So your call Gronk is "status quo"??

I disagree, I think Labor will lose more than they gain, but not enough to be toppled out.

And I am pleased you agree with me on something, and that is the electorate are not hurting enough to toss out a sitting government.

Given my age I have seen a LOT of elections, I first voted in 1973 when Gough Whitlam came to power.

Since then there hasn't been an opposition win power, it's all been the government losing power, wether it be Fraser, Hawke, Keating, Howard or Rudd it's all been the same...whenever there's a change of Government it was the Government losing NOT the opposition winning.

Has there been enough pain out there for the current Government to get turfed out...probably not.

 

[CussCuss]

There hasnt been much pain at all, most of the 'sins' have been of a monetary ****up or badly managed variety, not of a children overboard and ****ing up half of australias wage negotiations variety.

Most of labors policys throughout the past 3 years have been good intentioned and could have been very good, but they were badly managed.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

And therin lies their problem Cuss.....they bleat about Abbot not being ready but in reality they did a **** job themselves.

But no matter how bad they performed there's not ebough pain this time for a change.

 

[eagles2win]

Is anyone else thinking if Abbot get's in and does something to the work reform laws the country will come to a stand still?

With all the big unions going on strike.

 

[CussCuss]

**** will hit the fan, but he promised not to touch it. As much as it pains me its the one thing ill give him credit for, he doesnt blindly defend workchoices because it was a liberal policy, he has admitted that it was a ****up and he is right to not **** with it again if he got in.

The main thing I will be interested in is the senate. Most of the seats wont change too much I dont think because most of the disgruntled labor voters will go to greens, not libs in the reps and that will just go back to labor anyway and the local seats wont change too much.

The senate is where you will see the biggest change imo, its got the most potential. I really hope the sex party gets at least one to balance out those family first **** wits.

 

[bob dylan]

Is anyone else thinking if Abbot get's in and does something to the work reform laws the country will come to a stand still?

With all the big unions going on strike.

It only takes school teachers and public transport workers to go on strike and everything grinds to a halt, they are the only employees who have a significant effect on the community.

No one really cares if the local council workers go on strike or if the police stop writing out tickets etc.

 

[ManlyBacker]

What about a beer strike? I remember those dark days!

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

I agree BD, Teachers strikes and public transport strikes throw the place into Chaos, however they are both the domain of state politics at present so whilstever Labor is in charge there that's unlikley to occur.

 

[bob dylan]

What about a beer strike? I remember those dark days!

Who?

Breweries or drinkers?

 

[Rusty]

Must say that I am not as confident as I was to start with.

Still I did predict a Labor win in 2PP vote and a Coalition victory on seats, so I guess we were always going to be looking at a close run thing.

I will note the seat by seat polling has Labor up by 4, 2 more losses and it will be a hung parliament.