Election 2010, who do you think will win and why??

[Mark from Brisbane]

Yes Gronk, I didn't actually mention that but isn't that what they are supposed to stand for??

I consider myself "Green"...certainly not a Green voter, but I recycle, I mulch, I have a water tank and use that for my veggie patch. I take short showers, and in Brisbane (where water was non existant until recent times) we have learnt to water our small garden from the gray water that comes out of our washing machine...so I AM a Greenie (as such).

But dead set those people are from loony tunes, they simply masquerade as being Green when in fact they are just radical left wing Labor.

so whatever everone does don't vote for those bastards!!

 

[CussCuss]

While I do agree that the greens are loons for the most part (and thats coming from a left leaner), they can be useful in some instances, like having enough power to stop the filter but to get the NBN through if labor got in with a small majority.

You just have to look at the fact that they oppose nuclear power to see that they have been hijacked by idiots with their own ajenda.

Im seriously considering the sex party for a senate seat as they seem to be decently uncorrupted as yet.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

"Im seriously considering the sex party for a senate seat as they seem to be decently uncorrupted as yet"

Free Gang Bangs for everyoe...that's corruption isn't it??

 

[The Gronk]

Free Gang Bangs for everyone...that's corruption isn't it??

nah just my place on a typical Saturday night

 

[CussCuss]

**** name, but they are a proper progressive party. It sux that the name is probably going to kill them, because they have the right idea on a lot of stuff (pretty much the opposite of the religious ****sticks)

see here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3IPFmcPsgQ

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

[quote author=Mark from Brisbane link=topic=184174.msg283992#msg283992 date=1281595927]

Free Gang Bangs for everyone...that's corruption isn't it??

nah just my place on a typical Saturday night
[/quote]


Can I get an invite please???

 

[Guest]

Will the National Broadband Network proposals from each of the parties impact on this election?

To me labor's $43 billion plan extremely high risk.

It will surely take years to finish the whole country and will the technology be obsolete when it is completed?

I have heard that they need a take up rate of between 80-90% to make it viable.  Tasmania's take up rate so far is 30%

Are people going to afford it?

To my way of thinking this is a private enterprise project and the government should have handled it better so that the Telstra's and optus' did most of the funding with govt support for rural areas and maybe some additional tax incentives. 

When was the past time (if ever) that a government project was completed on time and on budget?  The intial $43b could easily turn into $50b.  $60b? 

 

[Rusty]

In terms of the NBN is big cost and big reward v little cost and little reward. It remains to be seen who will pick up voters from this.

My bet is it is a small (Possibly insignificant) Liberal win, for the following reason. The voters who would likely vote Labor because of improved internet are mostly young uni students or graduates, and the like. They have the issue of the Internet Filter to weigh up at the same time so I expect them to be less influenced by this news then otherwise. The voters likely to vote Lib because of their lower cost plan are the ones who don't use or understand the internet and its practical applications, ie the old. And since the old are already being given plenty of reason to vote Lib then I expect the policy to simply add a little more push to the already evident impetus.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Hard to see that this is a major issue, they are trying to make out like it is but stuffed if I can see that it means jack **** to the average man!

Unless it means faster porn

 

[bob dylan]

Hard to see that this is a major issue, they are trying to make out like it is but stuffed if I can see that it means jack s**t to the average man!

Unless it means faster porn

Weird though that the boat people also means jack**** to anyone but everyone wants to tell you its important to them.

Go figure.

 

[Rusty]

Agreed, both issues are small change. Neither rates a mention with me. More significant is the news we had on Abbotts tax plans in the last few days.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Agreed, both issues are small change. Neither rates a mention with me. More significant is the news we had on Abbotts tax plans in the last few days.

Now we are talking big issues, the NBN and the "Stop the boats" issues to me a very small and almost meaningless, BUT do they mean more to Joe Average than me.

To me big issues are

Tax
Superannuation and what they do with it (that's an age thing and Labor really changed the rules in the last three years as to how much you can put in per annum)
Infrastructure (ie big ticket items)

The only big ticket items I have seen in this election is the rail link from Redcliffe to Brisbane, and the Railink in Sydney (sorry it was from Epping to ???).

The rest of the "promises" are just vote catchers (maybe)

 

[Canteen Worker]

Hard to see that this is a major issue, they are trying to make out like it is but stuffed if I can see that it means jack s**t to the average man!

Unless it means faster porn

I listened to Hugh Rimmington, Channel 10 Political reporter on the radio the other night. He has been in Korea and Japan for the past 10 years as a correspondent. He said that in his industry, we are so far behind the 8-ball in our delivery of technology - news, medical, business that it is laughable. The Liberal proposal is a joke. Building railways in the early 1900s and the Snowy Mountains scheme in the 1950s was incredibly expensive but provided important and necessary infrastructure for the future. The NBN is a similar thing for us and needs doing.

Abbott saying on National television that the internet is for Facebook and email is basically painting his party as stuck in the dark ages, lacking vision and having their heads in the sand. He is campaigning on waste and boats, both with a lot of spin. Labor's campaign has been very ordinary, but on this issue, they are streets ahead.

 

[bob dylan]

Its now a non event, Mr Abbott will be PM by this time next week.

K Rudd give Labor a big enough lead to win the next 2 elections and they blew it mainly due to the NSW and QLD Governments poor performance.

I have had my money on Abbott today.

Libs/Nat $3.60
Labor $1.36

Market is 101.3%

 

[ManlyBacker]

Libs/Nat $3.60
Labor $1.36

Market is 101.3%

I come up with around 112% BD. I always find the 'odds on' calcs difficult. Let me know how you got to 101.3% as I always like to know more about odds. Cheers.

 

[Canteen Worker]

I am not sure for the reasons for your optimism Bob. Labour's campaign has been appalling, they have hardly put a foot right and yet in two the three polls they seem to have a handy lead - Abbott has not inspired confidence as an alternative despite Labor's woes. Qld is a problem for them as are (as you correctly identify) State Governments who are on the nose. Even with all those, only the less than Scientific Galaxy Poll has them with a chance. The 8 percent of undecideds will be the key this week. The scare campaign by both parties will be in full swing till Wednesday so keep your TVs off. I couldn't risk my cash on Abbott, in the same way, I wouldn't want to risk the country.

 

[bob dylan]

[quote author=bob dylan link=topic=184174.msg284443#msg284443 date=1281852951]

Libs/Nat $3.60
Labor $1.36

Market is 101.3%

I come up with around 112% BD. I always find the 'odds on' calcs difficult. Let me know how you got to 101.3% as I always like to know more about odds. Cheers.
[/quote]

To be truthful I copied it straight from Betfair.

But 20 odd years working part time for bookies and and pro punters I can help you out here I think. Off the top of my head I now $3.60 is old odds of about 11/4, and $1.36 is roughly 4/11 which I know is 100% market.

$3.60 = 27.77% (100/3.60)
$1.36 = 73.53% (100/1.36)

Hey 27.77 plus 73.53 = 101.3

http://www.onlinegambling.com/sports/odds-converter-calculators.htm

 

[bob dylan]

I am not sure for the reasons for your optimism Bob. Labour's campaign has been appalling, they have hardly put a foot right and yet in two the three polls they seem to have a handy lead - Abbott has not inspired confidence as an alternative despite Labor's woes. Qld is a problem for them as are (as you correctly identify) State Governments who are on the nose. Even with all those, only the less than Scientific Galaxy Poll has them with a chance. The 8 percent of undecideds will be the key this week. The scare campaign by both parties will be in full swing till Wednesday so keep your TVs off. I couldn't risk my cash on Abbott, in the same way, I wouldn't want to risk the country.

More likely pessimism.

But you gotta agree $3.60 in a two horse race seems great odds to me.

 

[CussCuss]

I actually saw an add that focused on policy (albeit the oppositions) today! I am shocked.

 

[ManlyBacker]

[quote author=ManlyBacker link=topic=184174.msg284526#msg284526 date=1281871535]
[quote author=bob dylan link=topic=184174.msg284443#msg284443 date=1281852951]

Libs/Nat $3.60
Labor $1.36

Market is 101.3%

I come up with around 112% BD. I always find the 'odds on' calcs difficult. Let me know how you got to 101.3% as I always like to know more about odds. Cheers.
[/quote]

To be truthful I copied it straight from Betfair.

But 20 odd years working part time for bookies and and pro punters I can help you out here I think. Off the top of my head I now $3.60 is old odds of about 11/4, and $1.36 is roughly 4/11 which I know is 100% market.

$3.60 = 27.77% (100/3.60)
$1.36 = 73.53% (100/1.36)

Hey 27.77 plus 73.53 = 101.3

http://www.onlinegambling.com/sports/odds-converter-calculators.htm
[/quote]

Thanks heaps BD for taking the time and posting that link.

I had a late night brain freeze and instead of adding one to the traditional odds (before dividing into 100) I was deducting 1. Doh!

Incredible that bookies can run a book at just 1.3% all the same.