Coronavirus sucks.. but the NRL lives!

[SeaEagleRock8]

Not being a scientist or doctor myself I can only try my best to assess what others are saying. But the collapse of all our social systems will occur with far greater devastation if your suggestion about 'getting everyone back to normal work' is adopted, according to some studies, such as this one

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time

medium.com

and also the one I posted yesterday at post #560 above.

 

[The better Robbo]

That’s my point exactly Waz
I’m not downplaying the threat entirely , I’m criticising the approach.

Maybe while people keep updating the number of cases and wait for the death toll to rise above 6 and just generically assume we are exactly the same as Italy while the figures in Southern Asia clearly show we are not I’ll provide similar updates on bankruptcies, suicides, medical health diagnoses, domestic violence ( of which no doubt you will start to see in your line of difficult work) and substance abuse.

Sooner or later, as uncomfortable as it is , this country and many others will have to start a conversation about the trade off between the health concerns of the minority and the destruction of the fabric of a society as a whole due to normal human behaviour being almost totally curtailed by quarantining an entire population as opposed to protecting the vulnerable.

It’s happening behind closed doors right now but believe me the long term social destruction underway will make that conversation inevitable as the dole lines lengthen.

To put it very bluntly. How many lives are required to be saved to justify the social destruction of the majority.

Regardless of what side of the fence we are on that conversation is coming very soon in the absence of a treatment or vaccine.

PS As I type the Dow Jones futures indices are down another 1400 points to complete the fastest 35 percent fall in history while JP Morgan is putting 2nd quarter US GDP at -14% and unemployment claims rising from 2 hundred thousand to 2 million in two weeks in the US- stats that align with the Great Depression.

Another example of this whole virus panic that doesn't make sense.
Australian deaths by lung cancer last year is over 9000.... 7 deaths due to carona virus in 3 months. If the government were serious about saving lives they should make smoking illegal. Smoking kills thousands and thousands more Australians EVERY YEAR yet we have 7 deaths by a virus and the entire planet shuts down. It makes zero sense!!! This is just another example on top of all the facts you have mentioned regarding suicides etc

 

[susan]

Not being a scientist or doctor myself I can only try my best to assess what others are saying. But the collapse of all our social systems will occur with far greater devastation if your suggestion about 'getting everyone back to normal work' is adopted, according to some studies, such as this one

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time

medium.com

and also the one I posted yesterday at post #560 above.

Best study I know is not based on modelling HIN1killed 20000 plus In USA and infected 60 mill and none of this happened.

When I get someone to explain that I’ll happily change course.Maybe this generation need to harden up.
Anyway enough doom and gloom

Roosters need to be plucked today SE8
I’m sure we agree on that

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

I do agree on that! Not sure why they are playing but they are so go Manly!
Also the more I read, the more I realise our collective knowledge and understanding of the virus is still evolving, eg the last article I mentioned was highly critical of one aspect of the earlier Imperial College study. Fact remains some countries have acted swiftly (in various different ways) with heartening results, others not so much and appear to be paying the price.

 

[globaleagle]

Yeah, comparing the end result of h1n1 and the start of covid-19 is disingenuous.

Partly false claim: COVID-19 and H1N1 numbers compared; the public was “totally chill” during the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010 while COVID-19 is causing “mass hysteria”

Iterations of a post make the claims that under President Donald Trump, there have been 1,329 U.S. cases of COVID-19 and 38 deaths, provoking “mass hysteria” while under President Barack Obama there were 60.8 million U.S. cases of H1N1 and 12,469 deaths, with a “totally...

www.reuters.com

There's been issues discussed in this thread, only for the next day someone to post "hey what about this" - raising the SAME ISSUE that was previously discussed. I just don't get it, especially from posters who, I don't know, thought highly of?

It's like:

Day 1:
a - what's 2 +2 equal?
b - 4.

Day 2:
a- Yeah but what's 2+2 equal?????
b- 4!

Day 3:
c - Hey what I wanna know is what 2+2 equals?!?!?!
b - seriously?
a and c - No answer hey? Told y'all!

Kt to C3

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

@susan

My wife has diabetes, and I have long term respiratory issues ( mainly during the winter months and lessened when it’s warmer which is why I moved from country NSW to Brisbane) we need to self isolate and distance ourselves from the general community as we are in the potential danger zone ( although not high risk like the 75+), I think that’s a given.

Thats tough, no social interaction , no grandkids BUT logical.

For the rest of the country in the say , 0-55 bracket this will be nothing more than a bad cold.

I can appreciate what they are doing BUT at what cost to society for the next 20 years??

Isolate the old, the infirmed , thus protecting the most vulnerable but otherwise let it run.

We are self funded ( still) and living a comfortable life but if this continues and doesn’t recover we’ll be lowly pensioners in a few years living from week to week.

Something I never ever thought I’d see.

 

[MuzztheEagle]

That’s my point exactly Waz
I’m not downplaying the threat entirely , I’m criticising the approach.

Maybe while people keep updating the number of cases and wait for the death toll to rise above 6 and just generically assume we are exactly the same as Italy while the figures in Southern Asia clearly show we are not I’ll provide similar updates on bankruptcies, suicides, medical health diagnoses, domestic violence ( of which no doubt you will start to see in your line of difficult work) and substance abuse.

Sooner or later, as uncomfortable as it is , this country and many others will have to start a conversation about the trade off between the health concerns of the minority and the destruction of the fabric of a society as a whole due to normal human behaviour being almost totally curtailed by quarantining an entire population as opposed to protecting the vulnerable.

It’s happening behind closed doors right now but believe me the long term social destruction underway will make that conversation inevitable as the dole lines lengthen.

To put it very bluntly. How many lives are required to be saved to justify the social destruction of the majority.

Regardless of what side of the fence we are on that conversation is coming very soon in the absence of a treatment or vaccine.

PS As I type the Dow Jones futures indices are down another 1400 points to complete the fastest 35 percent fall in history while JP Morgan is putting 2nd quarter US GDP at -14% and unemployment claims rising from 2 hundred thousand to 2 million in two weeks in the US- stats that align with the Great Depression.

Just a though Susan but, aren't you guilty of making the same sort of worst case assumption that people with health concerns are. How can you know what impacts we will see from such an economic downturn, other than speculation or some very shaky modelling? We haven't really seen it before. Well, maybe the great depression, but as you said; different time.
Maybe a good old depression will make the millennials wake up to the realities of life like many booomers suggest they should. Or maybe this will highlight the volatility of both financial markets and business ownership and the show the reason why workers fought for the rights that are being continuously eroded. Maybe this will drive real financial reform which will aid people in both a financial sense and prepare us for an viral threat which is truly a threat to humanity.
I don't know, but I think it helps to keep an open mind 🙂

 

[susan]

@susan

My wife has diabetes, and I have long term respiratory issues ( mainly during the winter months and lessened when it’s warmer which is why I moved from country NSW to Brisbane) we need to self isolate and distance ourselves from the general community as we are in the potential danger zone ( although not high risk like the 75+), I think that’s a given.

Thats tough, no social interaction , no grandkids BUT logical.

For the rest of the country in the say , 0-55 bracket this will be nothing more than a bad cold.

I can appreciate what they are doing BUT at what cost to society for the next 20 years??

Isolate the old, the infirmed , thus protecting the most vulnerable but otherwise let it run.

We are self funded ( still) and living a comfortable life but if this continues and doesn’t recover we’ll be lowly pensioners in a few years living from week to week.

Something I never ever thought I’d see.

This

 

[Captain Moondog]

Read in the paper Russell Brand says he's stranded in a remote area of Australia due to the coronavirus ( Mullumbimby LOL)

 

[globaleagle]

Read in the paper Russell Brand says he's stranded in a remote area of Australia due to the coronavirus ( Mullumbimby LOL)

Good ole Mullum!

 

[globaleagle]

For the rest of the country in the say , 0-55 bracket this will be nothing more than a bad cold.

Do you want the contact details of the widow of the 51 year old that died over here?

So....you wanna be ok but screw the rest of us.

ok then

 

[MuzztheEagle]

@susan

My wife has diabetes, and I have long term respiratory issues ( mainly during the winter months and lessened when it’s warmer which is why I moved from country NSW to Brisbane) we need to self isolate and distance ourselves from the general community as we are in the potential danger zone ( although not high risk like the 75+), I think that’s a given.

Thats tough, no social interaction , no grandkids BUT logical.

For the rest of the country in the say , 0-55 bracket this will be nothing more than a bad cold.

I can appreciate what they are doing BUT at what cost to society for the next 20 years??

Isolate the old, the infirmed , thus protecting the most vulnerable but otherwise let it run.

We are self funded ( still) and living a comfortable life but if this continues and doesn’t recover we’ll be lowly pensioners in a few years living from week to week.

Something I never ever thought I’d see.

But you have the ability to self isolate, many don't and this includes many people who are already in care. It looks as though many people can contract the virus without ever having symptoms and it would be a big reason why it has been so quick to spread. It also means that it would be practically impossible to prevent the spread into vulnerable communities unless you isolated them entirely and it's probably even too late for that. This is why the UK abandoned the thought.

 

[susan]

Just a though Susan but, aren't you guilty of making the same sort of worst case assumption that people with health concerns are. How can you know what impacts we will see from such an economic downturn, other than speculation or some very shaky modelling? We haven't really seen it before. Well, maybe the great depression, but as you said; different time.
Maybe a good old depression will make the millennials wake up to the realities of life like many booomers suggest they should. Or maybe this will highlight the volatility of both financial markets and business ownership and the show the reason why workers fought for the rights that are being continuously eroded. Maybe this will drive real financial reform which will aid people in both a financial sense and prepare us for an viral threat which is truly a threat to humanity.
I don't know, but I think it helps to keep an open mind 🙂

Not really Muzz I worked in financial markets for 35 years in Australia and US. Was on the SFE floor for 87 and in Chicago 01 and traded through 08 and did a lot of analysis.
You don’t need modelling anyway. It’s happening right now .40 million people work in hospitality alone in the US. 70 percent of GDP is the consumer. We are being told for minimum six months. Early state payroll figures suggest 2 to 4 million lining up for employment benefits next week. 35 percent fall in equity markets. Corporate bond market in pieces. Treasury yields rising not falling in a tanking economy-the ultimate nightmare.This is real and happening right now unlike the wait for more deaths in this country.

As an aside I don’t think it will be financial Armageddon for two reasons

1. Treatment ( not vaccine ) will be available sooner rather than later and the madness will subside. Our own doctors are very confident of this.
2. People will not stand idly by and watch their personal and financial lives disintegrate and politicians being politicians they will act.

I agree totally it would be good in theory to see this generation taught a lesson but the fact is they are not built for resilience. We are a nanny state and this is the lastest example.

 

[wombatgc]

.

PS As I type the Dow Jones futures indices are down another 1400 points to complete the fastest 35 percent fall in history while JP Morgan is putting 2nd quarter US GDP at -14% and unemployment claims rising from 2 hundred thousand to 2 million in two weeks in the US- stats that align with the Great Depression.

How do you think it compares to 2008 financial crisis? I’m no numbers guy, but after watching "The Big Short" at least two dozen times, it fascinates me.

 

[susan]

Do you want the contact details of the widow of the 51 year old that died over here?

So....you wanna be ok but screw the rest of us.

ok then

Minimal deaths under sixty five and it proves something. Of course their are exceptions.
That is a ridiculous argument.

In Australia deaths are under 10 after three months. Our own doctors are suggesting our strain is not as harsh.Call me when it reaches 900 like the flu last year.

This country needs to protect the weak and harden the **** up.

 

[wombatgc]

Yeah, comparing the end result of h1n1 and the start of covid-19 is disingenuous.

Partly false claim: COVID-19 and H1N1 numbers compared; the public was “totally chill” during the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010 while COVID-19 is causing “mass hysteria”

Iterations of a post make the claims that under President Donald Trump, there have been 1,329 U.S. cases of COVID-19 and 38 deaths, provoking “mass hysteria” while under President Barack Obama there were 60.8 million U.S. cases of H1N1 and 12,469 deaths, with a “totally...

www.reuters.com

There's been issues discussed in this thread, only for the next day someone to post "hey what about this" - raising the SAME ISSUE that was previously discussed. I just don't get it, especially from posters who, I don't know, thought highly of?

It's like:

Day 1:
a - what's 2 +2 equal?
b - 4.

Day 2:
a- Yeah but what's 2+2 equal?????
b- 4!

Day 3:
c - Hey what I wanna know is what 2+2 equals?!?!?!
b - seriously?
a and c - No answer hey? Told y'all!

Kt to C3

edit: For those with their sense of outrage rising, this may not be directed at you.

2+2= fish. (Big short reference).

 

[Budgie]

Pretty simple

Protect the vulnerable, get the majority back to normal work just as in all past epidemics that have been controlled without the destruction of society as we are seeing now, HINI in 2009 being the clearest example of a highly contagious disease that infected 60 million Americans and killed 25000 mainly younger citizens( and a half million worldwide).Interestingly the elderly were largely fine due to previous H1N1 immunity which does not happen with mass quarantine.

Partly false claim: COVID-19 and H1N1 numbers compared; the public was “totally chill” during the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010 while COVID-19 is causing “mass hysteria”

Iterations of a post make the claims that under President Donald Trump, there have been 1,329 U.S. cases of COVID-19 and 38 deaths, provoking “mass hysteria” while under President Barack Obama there were 60.8 million U.S. cases of H1N1 and 12,469 deaths, with a “totally...

www.reuters.com

Check your facts Susan.
Health first, money second and yes, I know you trade in stocks and are the complete opposite of nurses, teachers etc.

 

[manly al]

Depends when this share market decline is going to bottom out . Recall that in 08 , at least in my case it slumped by about 35 % before very slowly recovering and took quite a few years to regain all the lost ground . Bit of a concern now that it is still not clear when this one will reach its lowest point . Just like most crisis , usually riding it out is the best option but can't help but think that the present stock market down turn is quite over reactive . Fortunately in my case i am not that dependent on stock market returns , will never get the pension [ which is fair enough ] with a life long intention to remain on a third generation farm property . This one is going to hurt many people who have done the right thing for their basic financial well being however and that really sucks . just hope that there is a lot more international pressure on China to get their bio security act together or be much better practiced , most of the really serious viruses seem to enamate from there and surely enough is enough .

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

For the rest of the country in the say , 0-55 bracket this will be nothing more than a bad cold.

I've heard people say that but it is untrue, sadly.

U.S. official says data show severe coronavirus infections among millennials, not just older Americans

A top health official on the White House’s coronavirus task force warned that young people could suffer severe health risks from Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

www.statnews.com

'Like a lottery': Health experts warn young people with no risk factors are dying from COVID-19

Health experts are warning that it's not impossible for younger adults to have a severe form of COVID-19 or even die from it, even those who don't have any other obvious risk factors.

www.abc.net.au

 

[MuzztheEagle]

Minimal deaths under sixty five and it proves something. Of course their are exceptions.
That is a ridiculous argument.

In Australia deaths are under 10 after three months. Our own doctors are suggesting our strain is not as harsh.Call me when it reaches 900 like the flu last year.

This country needs to protect the weak and harden the **** up.

Protecting the weak is exactly what people are trying to do with the measures being put in place. As I said before, you just can't do it for people already in care, there is no effective way to quarantine them. And once it happens it could easily lead to an overloading of the health system like has been seen in Italy. Once that happens people will panic and we would likely see the same effect on financial markets and hospitality that we have today.
The real failing here is that we didn't move fast enough. It wasn't taken seriously from the start and now it is a much larger problem as a result. But it happened and it's time to move on.
In regards to people, I don't think they are built any differently than they ever have been. We are all self serving, insecure meatbags who think they no better than the other meatbags around them and I doubt this will ever change 🙂