There are a number of people on here talking up players in our NYC team as future first graders: Nico Hynes, Jesse Ramien, Brad Parker, Darcy Cox, Bill Bainbridge, Johnnie Walker, et al. I'm not saying there may not be a first grader amongst them but before we believe the hype I'd like to set the facts.
Prior to last weekend there have been 488 players graduate over 8 years of NYC into the NRL. That puts it at around 60 players a year. With 16 teams that is a bit under 4 players a team on average. A historical look shows that those teams that finish at the top of the table contribute a significantly higher proportion of the 60 players than those at the bottom, not rocket science. Using the inaugural year, 2008 Canberra beat Brisbane in the final and these two teams had 17 players graduate. The teams to go out in the semis, Dragons and Warriors contributed another 7 players each so the top 4 contributed 31 players to the on average 60. Alternatively the last placed Cowboys had 1 player in Ray Thompson. Even 2009 when we finished minor premiers but lost in the semis we saw 8 players graduate into first grade across the NRL.
It's very early days to judge last year's team although we have seen Tom T and Will P debut. Liam K would have been close except for his indiscretions and the Hugh Pratt is highly regarded amongst others. No doubt Tom T was the superstar but it seems we will still make the average 4 players.
Added that Manly has the worst record for producing first graders from NYC we currently sit in last place with 13 graduates (8 as mentioned came from 2009), obviously due to our poor record in the competition over the years. The warriors have produced 47 graduates in that time.
Currently we sit 0-8 with a game in hand to be played next weekend against Cronulla. This suggests we will be lucky to have one player graduate. I know it's easy to get into the hype especially after one good game here and there although I have now watched a number of our NYC games and don't see it and history suggests it also doesn't look good.
Prior to last weekend there have been 488 players graduate over 8 years of NYC into the NRL. That puts it at around 60 players a year. With 16 teams that is a bit under 4 players a team on average. A historical look shows that those teams that finish at the top of the table contribute a significantly higher proportion of the 60 players than those at the bottom, not rocket science. Using the inaugural year, 2008 Canberra beat Brisbane in the final and these two teams had 17 players graduate. The teams to go out in the semis, Dragons and Warriors contributed another 7 players each so the top 4 contributed 31 players to the on average 60. Alternatively the last placed Cowboys had 1 player in Ray Thompson. Even 2009 when we finished minor premiers but lost in the semis we saw 8 players graduate into first grade across the NRL.
It's very early days to judge last year's team although we have seen Tom T and Will P debut. Liam K would have been close except for his indiscretions and the Hugh Pratt is highly regarded amongst others. No doubt Tom T was the superstar but it seems we will still make the average 4 players.
Added that Manly has the worst record for producing first graders from NYC we currently sit in last place with 13 graduates (8 as mentioned came from 2009), obviously due to our poor record in the competition over the years. The warriors have produced 47 graduates in that time.
Currently we sit 0-8 with a game in hand to be played next weekend against Cronulla. This suggests we will be lucky to have one player graduate. I know it's easy to get into the hype especially after one good game here and there although I have now watched a number of our NYC games and don't see it and history suggests it also doesn't look good.