Game Day: Manly v Knights [Round01,2018]

[Ralphie]

Discipline, something the team has lacked the last two years. We can't be giving away those stupid penalties we often do, Lussick and Walker without looking at stats I would perceive these two as the most common offenders, both aren't playing. There will be a home town advantage for the Knights so be prepared, expect it and give the Ref nothing to penalise you for. Discipline

No arguments from me, but if a referee has it in their mind that they are going to give a penalty there is almost any reason legit or not that they can turn to.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

No arguments from me, but if a referee has it in their mind that they are going to give a penalty there is almost any reason legit or not that they can turn to.

Which I’ve been saying for two years , they massage the game through penalties!!

Seriously , you could almost penalise every tackle if you wanted to!

 

[globaleagle]

Which I’ve been saying for two years , they massage the game through penalties!!

Seriously , you could almost penalise every tackle if you wanted to!

Get ready for 15+ play the ball penalties!

 

[HoldenV8]

Totally agree with you there feathered friend . Trent is a fine coach and like every one of us he needs some fine tuning.
I was at the Sharks trial and I watched Matt Wright and Brown and they looked pedestrian and way out of their depth amongst the young virile players.

Mate, I honestly don't get it. Like I said, I have no doubt that Matty Wright will give 100% out there. But if he is there because we need a goal kicker, then even if he doesn't have a groin injury (which appears to be the same one he carried late last year and into the RLWC), just hand the tee to DCE, Api, Jake or Brian Kelly and play Brad Parker in the centres. Or put Brad on the wing and play Uate in the #3.

As for Brown.....again we have players who cover different positions who offer so much more. Hastings can cover hooker, fullback and the halves (and even if he had to replace a centre, just move Tom and play Jackson at the back), plus there is the added bonus of his goal kicking. And while we have Thompson who can play centre and we have 3 actual back rowers on the bench, we know he won't play anywhere but hooker in the forwards so his selection just doesn't make any sense.

Brown and Barrett is almost turning into Boyd and Bennett......

 

[Woodsie]

There are 1040 man minutes in every game of Rugby League ....

If Brown plays for 10 mins ... that represents less than 1% of the total contribution .. good or bad .... of the whole team ...

We will not win or lose this game based on who our utility cover is ....

 

[Spartan Eagle]

There are 1040 man minutes in every game of Rugby League ....

If Brown plays for 10 mins ... that represents less than 1% of the total contribution .. good or bad .... of the whole team ...

We will not win or lose this game based on who our utility cover is ....

I like the way you think. But I don't see it that way. The run of play and the number of touches is not distributed evenly amongst all players. Some get more ball than others and some get targeted more by the opposition especially if they are perceived as a weakness. In reality there are only 80 minutes of playing time. LB shouldn't be sucking up any of those.

 

[Woodsie]

I find all this outrage and concentration on who our #14 is somewhat amusing .... the difference between Hastings and Brown might be 10% ... 10% of 1% in game time ... meaningless ...

It is akin to being invited to lunch with Margo Robbie on her yacht .... and becoming fixated with the shoes the waitress is wearing .......

PSS I also like to stir up **** when I'm off my meds .....

 

[HoldenV8]

More so-called experts writing us off. This one from Betfair Australia.....

"The Slider
The Manly Sea Eagles were the big surprise packets of 2017, finishing sixth with a 14-10 record after starting the year forecast for a bottom four finish. They will not be repeating with a bottom four finish far more likely than a return to the playoffs this year. The warning signs are everywhere. There was the sharp jump last season, that nearly always returns to the mean the year following. There was the 6-2 record in close games, another key indicator a down year is coming. They overshot their real win rate by 1.5 wins. They have a salary cap scandal hanging over their heads. Blake Green, underrated in his importance to the team, has left for the Warriors and Trent Barrett seems no closer to finding a five-eighth than he does in finding Noah’s Ark. Lachlan Croker and Jackson Hastings seem the front-runners. The pack lacks punch. There is no depth across the park. The bottom looks to be falling out at Brookvale."

1 - It was pretty much decided a couple of months ago that Croker would be the 5/8. I think a lot have seen us chasing Pearce, Hodkinson and Carney and have read into it that we have no one else and that Croker or Hastings would only be a stop-gap measure who will drag the team down. And of those 3 we were chasing, only Pearce had we got him would have been assured of a starting spot over Croker and Hastings.

2 - The pack lacks punch. Say what? Marty Taupau led just about everyone other NRL forward in average metres per game last year. Jake is rated the best Aussie lock in the game and is easily the best defender in rugby league. Api has improved that much that he is now rated only behind Smith as the best #9 in the game and we've improved the back row considerably with the addition of Thompson joining Sironen. The only thing we might be lacking is bench props until Lussick is back and Perrett gets picked again.

3 - No depth across the park......ummm, OK. We have depth just about everywhere except the halves which I still believe was why we chased Pearce, Hodkinson and Carney in the first place.

Ladies and gentlemen.....we keep dancing underneath the radar.

 

[Woodsie]

More so-called experts writing us off. This one from Betfair Australia.....

"The Slider
The Manly Sea Eagles were the big surprise packets of 2017, finishing sixth with a 14-10 record after starting the year forecast for a bottom four finish. They will not be repeating with a bottom four finish far more likely than a return to the playoffs this year. The warning signs are everywhere. There was the sharp jump last season, that nearly always returns to the mean the year following. There was the 6-2 record in close games, another key indicator a down year is coming. They overshot their real win rate by 1.5 wins. They have a salary cap scandal hanging over their heads. Blake Green, underrated in his importance to the team, has left for the Warriors and Trent Barrett seems no closer to finding a five-eighth than he does in finding Noah’s Ark. Lachlan Croker and Jackson Hastings seem the front-runners. The pack lacks punch. There is no depth across the park. The bottom looks to be falling out at Brookvale."

1 - It was pretty much decided a couple of months ago that Croker would be the 5/8. I think a lot have seen us chasing Pearce, Hodkinson and Carney and have read into it that we have no one else and that Croker or Hastings would only be a stop-gap measure who will drag the team down. And of those 3 we were chasing, only Pearce had we got him would have been assured of a starting spot over Croker and Hastings.

2 - The pack lacks punch. Say what? Marty Taupau led just about everyone other NRL forward in average metres per game last year. Jake is rated the best Aussie lock in the game and is easily the best defender in rugby league. Api has improved that much that he is now rated only behind Smith as the best #9 in the game and we've improved the back row considerably with the addition of Thompson joining Sironen. The only thing we might be lacking is bench props until Lussick is back and Perrett gets picked again.

3 - No depth across the park......ummm, OK. We have depth just about everywhere except the halves which I still believe was why we chased Pearce, Hodkinson and Carney in the first place.

Ladies and gentlemen.....we keep dancing underneath the radar.

V8 ... don't underestimate how clever these betting sites are ..... they are deliberately down playing Manly in an attempt to reduce the size of their payouts at the end of the year ......

or ... they wouldn't know if the cross channel ferry was up them until it blew the foghorn .....

 

[eaglebuzz]

There really is no excuse for us to lose this game. We have the better team and more settled combinations.

If Newcastle win it will be on raw enthusiasm. "White line fever", as it were...

 

[PONTIAN SEA EAGLE]

All I’m asking is please get the ball out to jorge i can smell a try or to from him.

 

[Spartan Eagle]

I find all this outrage and concentration on who our #14 is somewhat amusing .... the difference between Hastings and Brown might be 10% ... 10% of 1% in game time ... meaningless ...

It is akin to being invited to lunch with Margo Robbie on her yacht .... and becoming fixated with the shoes the waitress is wearing .......

PSS I also like to stir up **** when I'm off my meds .....

Let's assume that LB gets 10 minutes of game time.. That equates to 12.5% of game time minutes. Even if Hastings is 1% better than LB then he should playing instead. It's the one percenters that reflect a winning attitude and get you playing finals football.

 

[Woodsie]

Let's assume that LB gets 10 minutes of game time.. That equates to 12.5% of game time minutes. Even if Hastings is 1% better than LB then he should playing instead. It's the one percenters that reflect a winning attitude and get you playing finals football.

Yes but there are 13 players on the field ... so Brown's contribution of 12.5% must be divided by 13 to get back to the less than 1% of total contribution that I originally cited.

Not saying our #14 isn't important ..... just of miniscule importance in comparison to who our #6, #3, and two prop rotations are .....

 

[Spartan Eagle]

Yes but there are 13 players on the field ... so Brown's contribution of 12.5% must be divided by 13 to get back to the less than 1% of total contribution that I originally cited.

Not saying our #14 isn't important ..... just of miniscule importance in comparison to who our #6, #3, and two prop rotations are .....

I don't agree with your theory that playing time needs to be equally divided by the 13 players on the field. Following your logic implies that every player should get paid equally...


In 10 minutes LB can cause a **** storm... In 10 seconds another player can turn the game on it's head. So contribution / impact of a player shouldn't be measured by the number of minutes a player is on the field but by their actions / inactions. So my point is to field your best team. LB isn't.

PS : I hope for our sake LB has a solid game.

 

[Woodsie]

I don't agree with your theory that playing time needs to be equally divided by the 13 players on the field. Following your logic implies that every player should get paid equally...


In 10 minutes LB can cause a **** storm... In 10 seconds another player can turn the game on it's head. So contribution / impact of a player shouldn't be measured by the number of minutes a player is on the field but by their actions / inactions. So my point is to field your best team. LB isn't.

PS : I hope for our sake LB has a solid game.

It is then fortunate that Mathematics doesn't require one's agreement to be correct ....🙂 ... It is an incontestable fact that 10mins by one player does equate to less than 1% of the total contribution time available.

However I do agree with your point of playing your best 17 .... I in fact would go with Hastings at #14 .... I just don't think the difference is worth all the angst ...

And I agree that we all hope LB has a solid game ... but I would be even happier if there is no reason to put him on at all.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

First time in 10 years on here I’ve seen maths being used to prove / disprove a players worth.

Plenty use Stats, never seen Maths once!!

But I do like 10% of 1%, which really isn’t much.

 

[HoldenV8]

Speaking of percentages.....

Can we just have a goal kicker who can kick at over 80%

 

[BOZO]

I find all this outrage and concentration on who our #14 is somewhat amusing .... the difference between Hastings and Brown might be 10% ... 10% of 1% in game time ... meaningless ...

It is akin to being invited to lunch with Margo Robbie on her yacht .... and becoming fixated with the shoes the waitress is wearing .......

PSS I also like to stir up **** when I'm off my meds .....

In close games , and there are many in the tight NRL comp , that extra 1% to 10% difference is all it takes to win them !!!
Enjoy your lunch with Margo feathered friend

 

[BOZO]

Yes but there are 13 players on the field ... so Brown's contribution of 12.5% must be divided by 13 to get back to the less than 1% of total contribution that I originally cited.

Not saying our #14 isn't important ..... just of miniscule importance in comparison to who our #6, #3, and two prop rotations are .....

Your right our 14 is very important and important things do make a difference !!!

 

[Spartan Eagle]

It is then fortunate that Mathematics doesn't require one's agreement to be correct ....🙂 ... It is an incontestable fact that 10mins by one player does equate to less than 1% of the total contribution time available.

However I do agree with your point of playing your best 17 .... I in fact would go with Hastings at #14 .... I just don't think the difference is worth all the angst ...

And I agree that we all hope LB has a solid game ... but I would be even happier if there is no reason to put him on at all.

Okay all your formula measures is the player's match time on the field as a percentage over the whole playing group. Nothing more.. The whole team could be laying on the ground with flowers sticking out of their arses reading Harry Potter for the entire time and the ‰ won't change..

So if Lewis Browns 10 minutes of playing time equates to <1%, then what does that even mean? How is that fact even relevant to a player's value and what he brings on match day and their impact whether positive or negative.

Surely there are other mathematical statistics that offer more perspective such as missed tackles, tackles, metres run etc..

It is also an incontestable fact that 80mins by one player (such as DCE) equate to less than 7.7% of the total contribution time available. Wow.

So what does that fact even prove? What is your actual point?