Baz Extension

[NLSeaEagle]

LOL!! Pundits...experts!

Most of the experts/pundits in the NRL wouldn't know their arse to their face. There are numerous examples. Tallis, Lockyer and Geyer are just a few examples. Should I continue?

Odds are funny things. If lots of people put money on a team the odds get shorter, if hardly anyone does they get longer right? Do odds have much to do with the actual quality of the team or are they a reflection of betting patterns. Or an enticement to bet?

Actually my terminology was wrong.....................my inference was not the idiot ex players who end up in the media .............but I really was meaning the oddsmaker who are professionals at analysis. You will find their analysis of games and teams is more often than not extremely accurate.

 

[Bearfax]

I'm always accurate. Its just that the facts are always wrong.

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Actually my terminology was wrong.....................my inference was not the idiot ex players who end up in the media .............but I really was meaning the oddsmaker who are professionals at analysis. You will find their analysis of games and teams is more often than not extremely accurate.

But didn't those same expert 'professionals at analysis' - betting agencies - have us only ranked about 12th at the start of this year?

 

[Kiwi Eagle]

Those oddsmakers didn't know that many of the star players would miss a lot of that season

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Triple M Brisbane has the Titans coaching position going to Demitriou (probably just a guess ) so I think you can scratch the Baz to Titans rumour.

 

[Deleted member 26876]

Yeah sure ........but giving in to Baz's demands after a season where we scraped into the 8 and bombed out week 1 of the finals will send the wrong message..............we are Manly, our ambitions are slightly greater than where he's from (the Dragons)

And regarding the players Baz had this year, i'm of the opinion he has in fact not used them well or developed them.

- Turbo was making more errors at the end of the season than the start
- Lussick was still a moron
- Api was still the only player following up Kapow waiting for an upload
- no one was running decoys
- defensively the team was woeful
- etc etc etc

Hey, is that a form slump I hear. We get it, we dropped off in the back-end of the season. Still doesn't take away from what we did until that point. No one is satisfied with that form slump, NO ONE, but we are happy with the signs this young, improving squad showed of whch revealed that we are contenders for next season. 2017 we didn't win, and sure we always want to win. Although we likely won't win every year and it showed that if we can keep adding little bits and pieces (such as thompson, depth) we can ensure we win soon. Patience, that end to the season won't tarnish us forever, we'll learn from it and continue going up. Rebuilidng is finished, now the polishing process has begun

 

[Deleted member 26876]

Let's not forget based on our squad and pre season recruitment, early we were one of the favourites for the 2016 season!
What did Baz do with that squad who the pundits/rugby league professionals rated so highly?

Feb, 2016

2016 NRL Premiership Odds
$5.00 Brisbane Broncos
$8.00 North Queensland Cowboys
$8.00 New Zealand Warriors
$9.00 Manly Sea Eagles
$13.00 Sydney Roosters
$14.00 Melbourne Storm
$15.00 Cronulla Sharks
$15.00 South Sydney
$15.00 Parramatta Eels
$17.00 Canterbury Bulldogs
$21.00 Penrith Panthers
$26.00 Canberra Raiders
$34.00 St George Illawarra Dragons
$81.00 Newcastle Knights
$101.00 Wests Tigers
$201.00 Gold Coast Titans

In 2017 we were the 14th favourite, and one of the favourites for the wooden spoon. What did Baz do to get us to 6th! And nearly top 4. I like you and you are a manly fan, but geez your pessimism makes it hard sometimes

 

[Kevinward777]

I’m away in a bush cabin with no internet until next Tuesday. I’ve made the arduous trek up the mountain the last three days filled with the expectancy of new signings. So far all I’ve got is perpetations of nothingness from the usual die hard supporters. Saturday will be the day, the day when all is revealed. I kind of feel like @globaleagle right now, far far away, I may as well be in Alaska! Please can someone throw me a bone, the disappointment I feel after driving up the mountain and opening Silvertails is really starting to impact my holiday.

 

[eaglebuzz]

I have to be honest, I dont remember much of that season but trusty RLP also tells me

Brett - aged 20 - played 24 games
Gelnn - aged 21 - played 3 games
Matai - aged 21 - played 11 games
Watmough - aged 22 - played 18 games

Hoppa played 2 games that year

You cant judge the 2005 team by the players that these guys became later...........

(side note, this brings me on to one of my pet peeves in Blake Green.................whats was the difference between Hasler's early teams and the 2006, 2007 & 2008 teams..............the arrival and impact of a 2nd top class playmaker!)

We didn't start looking really dangerous until both Orford AND Lyon were in the side.

 

[Shoe1]

I’m away in a bush cabin with no internet until next Tuesday. I’ve made the arduous trek up the mountain the last three days filled with the expectancy of new signings. So far all I’ve got is perpetations of nothingness from the usual die hard supporters. Saturday will be the day, the day when all is revealed. I kind of feel like @globaleagle right now, far far away, I may as well be in Alaska! Please can someone throw me a bone, the disappointment I feel after driving up the mountain and opening Silvertails is really starting to impact my holiday.

I’m sure there will be no problems having your membership pack delivered there

 

[NLSeaEagle]

We didn't start looking really dangerous until both Orford AND Lyon were in the side.

Still.................2 top class playmakers............not one top class playmaker, and the other guy "who brings the best in the first one"

 

[Deleted member 26876]

Still.................2 top class playmakers............not one top class playmaker, and the other guy "who brings the best in the first one"

Imo Daly Cherry-Evans and Blake Green better than vs worse than. A few arguable although if statistics were also added they'd likely round out the following

..better than/will be better than..
Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima
Cameron Munster and Brodie Croft
James Maloney and Chad Townsend
Corey Norman and Mitchell Moses
Ashley Taylor and Kane Eldgy
Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker
Blake Austin and Aiden Sezer
Trent Hodkinson and Brock Lamb
Shaun Johnson and Nathaniel Roach
Josh Reynolds and Luke Brooks
Kieran Foran and Moses Mbye
Nathan Cleary and Matt Moylan (don't work together at all)

Level with Pearce and Keary imo, Dce better than Pearce, Keary has heaps of talent although fades so is just more useful than Green

..Better pairings..
Ben Hunt and Gareth Widdop
Jonathan Thurston and Michael Morgan

 

[NLSeaEagle]

In 2017 we were the 14th favourite, and one of the favourites for the wooden spoon. What did Baz do to get us to 6th! And nearly top 4. I like you and you are a manly fan, but geez your pessimism makes it hard sometimes

But didn't those same expert 'professionals at analysis' - betting agencies - have us only ranked about 12th at the start of this year?

Someone proposed on another thread (the Melbourne thread i think) that this was one of the weakest years for quality outside of the Melbourne team and that is one of the reasons they were so dominant. (and maybe Broncs)
I agree totally.

Remember but for 2 results in the final round 6th could have been 9th! (we lose to Panthers, Dragons win)

Let's consider
Rd 24 we lost to the 11th team
Rd 23 we lost to the 14th team
We also had scrape home wins against the Knights (16th) & the Warriors (13th) in the 2nd half of the season.

This was basically a season where the bottom 10 teams were decidedly average and as a result week in and week out we had "upset" results. (and there were 4 teams Warriors, Tigers, Titans & Knights who were never making the 8)

I think the achievement for 2017 is not being put into the right perspective.

That's not pessimism....................I think people are overstating Baz's achievement and not being realistic about the shortcomings of the team (I think we are 3 players short of a premiership contender)
.

 

[NLSeaEagle]

Imo Daly Cherry-Evans and Blake Green better than vs worse than. A few arguable although if statistics were also added they'd likely round out the following

..better than/will be better than..
Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima
Cameron Munster and Brodie Croft
James Maloney and Chad Townsend
Corey Norman and Mitchell Moses
Ashley Taylor and Kane Eldgy
Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker
Blake Austin and Aiden Sezer
Trent Hodkinson and Brock Lamb
Shaun Johnson and Nathaniel Roach
Josh Reynolds and Luke Brooks
Kieran Foran and Moses Mbye
Nathan Cleary and Matt Moylan (don't work together at all)

Level with Pearce and Keary imo, Dce better than Pearce, Keary has heaps of talent although fades so is just more useful than Green

..Better pairings..
Ben Hunt and Gareth Widdop
Jonathan Thurston and Michael Morgan

I like what you are trying to do here ;-) but it's not the point ...................

In effect you are pointing out that so many half back pairings are decidedly average ...........and our slightly above average half back pairing is better..................but that's not the point i want to make.
I say to win the premiership we need a "top" half pairing ..........not one that will "split" games each week with other average pairings.
If we swap Green out, we become a serious threat.
(I also think DCE is the element which makes the pairing above average right - you swap in any other 5/8 and the analysis is the same!)

Imagine how you would rate DCE/Austin, DCE/Norman, DCE/Foran, DCE/Munster, DCE/Moylan, DCE/Morgan, etc etc

We are a premiership team then.

 

[Deleted member 26876]

I like what you are trying to do here ;-) but it's not the point ...................

In effect you are pointing out that so many half back pairings are decidedly average ...........and our slightly above average half back pairing is better..................but that's not the point i want to make.
I say to win the premiership we need a "top" half pairing ..........not one that will "split" games each week with other average pairings.
If we swap Green out, we become a serious threat.
(I also think DCE is the element which makes the pairing above average right - you swap in any other 5/8 and the analysis is the same!)

Imagine how you would rate DCE/Austin, DCE/Norman, DCE/Foran, DCE/Munster, DCE/Moylan, DCE/Morgan, etc etc

We are a premiership team then.

I agree with that totally. We swap for one of them and we'd be very hard to beat. Although with Moylan seemingly no chance now (never know) Green may just be the only option for the moment

 

[NLSeaEagle]

As far as I know Melbourne got beaten fair and square twice in this season, against the sharks, and against the eels in fw1 (hate the eels but refs were appalling). Also nearly lost to the roosters only to snatch a win with seconds to play. We played the eels in rd one so can't judge from that, but we beat chooks twice and made easy work of the sharks as well. We also had the Storm beat, only for one pass to go to ground in that clash earlier in the season. Melbourne had plenty of games where they could've lost, and plenty of games where they easily won. They were unbeatable against lower sides, although with good sides they showed they weren't all that.

What i'm saying by this is that we had moments in that season where we were as good as any. And although that died at the backend of the season except for resurgent big wins over the Roosters and Panthers, we still were arguably the form team heading into about round 18 I vividly remember.

This was in the sides first year properly together. I'm not saying we were world beaters all year. Although we certainly had some moments when we looked as good as any. With the players we brought in that was a good achievement. And we only need minor touches to really give it a crack. That's why we want baz, cause we are well and truly on the right track

See what you are saying is almost the exact reason why I think that Baz is being over-rated.

The fact that we could beat Roosters, Sharks, take it to the Storm................and then lose to Tigers, Dogs etc

It shows we had players capable of competing at the top level but Baz could not make them into a consistent winning unit.
Not even a consistently competitive unit!

I don't buy the "form slump" bull****, a well coached team doesn't suddenly become a badly coached team.
You can maybe slump 1 game, have an off day, but not for 6 weeks?

 

[Deleted member 26876]

See what you are saying is almost the exact reason why I think that Baz is being over-rated.

The fact that we could beat Roosters, Sharks, take it to the Storm................and then lose to Tigers, Dogs etc

It shows we had players capable of competing at the top level but Baz could not make them into a consistent winning unit.
Not even a consistently competitive unit!

I don't buy the "form slump" bull****, a well coached team doesn't suddenly become a badly coached team.
You can maybe slump 1 game, have an off day, but not for 6 weeks?

I don't know, the players over that period of time just looked like they were trying too hard to 'fix' their form. We didn't know what happened, the players didn't know what happened, so i'm sure baz was in the same boat. We did really struggle with poor sides, although that was really only apparent in the backend of the season, which makes that drop in form a little strange. Perhaps it was complacency, we'll never know, although i think they (and baz) will learn from this. He isn't an experienced coach yet, although he'll learn from his mistakes and experiences. He did enough this year to warrant an extension imo

I know very little about 2005 and 2006, although from what i hear, des wasn't a brilliant coach on the surface back then. Time moulds them into better coaches, im happy to let baz continue to develop. He seemed more comfortable this year and i think his ability to bring together a side is very valuable to building the next era at manly

 

[Technical Coach]

A 5 year contract is not on the table because coaches don't get signed for 5 years unless they are Craig Bellamy, not because Manly don't have the money.

True, the point being made is when reporters and forum thread "speculation" comes out with "three years on offer" you don't have to have "inside info" to come to that conclusion---crossing off what will never be offered is way too easy to do.(such as a 4-5 year contract)

On top of Manly "not having the funds" to offer long term coaching packages to even the top tier coaching ranks if they came on the market leaves you with either a two year extension or most likely three year offer. (Nothing informative at all)

It was reported that Ricky Stuart "might" have been offered five years at Parra back in that time so you can never write off silly offers from cashed up clubs.(once again Manly haven't got the financial resources/capacity to even entertain silly offers and tend to make much smarter decisions in general)

 

[rifraff]

It is all good and well to say baz doesn't deserve an upgrade. But for someone who has outperformed more highly credentialed and a lot better payed first grade coaches, I don't see too many realistic alternatives being thrown up..

Or do we just cross our fingers and take a chance in case we might find someone special?

Very young team and especially the forward pack. Attack has been good. Defense can and should get better.

Contracts don't mean **** anyway, not like he can't get shown the door if Penn isn't happy anymore...

 

[globaleagle]

I kind of feel like @globaleagle right now, far far away, I may as well be in Alaska! Please can someone throw me a bone, the disappointment I feel after driving up the mountain and opening Silvertails is really starting to impact my holiday.

If you mean you woke up this morning and there was snow everywhere....when yesterday there wasn't a flake...then yes, you'd be feeling like me!

lol

snow....*sigh*