Did I manage to get the first ever silvertails 'information is disputed' warning?
The masks information is disputed, I agree, although the evidence is pretty clear. Masks may have a very small impact on transmissibility. But it's something in the order of 5%... negligible, the data is clear as I explained and linked to a number of studies. No one rebutted my argument. They are not worth the annoyance and the critical social issue whereby masks hide ones facial expressions. The trade-off is too great, it’s dehumanising. Imagine kids in masks at school, learning to socialise, and they can’t see each other’s face. This is unforgivable. But there are a large number of public health officials saying they work, so it’s certainly disputed.
The mortality is not really disputed. Not by any credible scientists or studies. Covid mortality estimates vary from about 0.5% to 0.1%. The study I linked is the most detailed and global. It’s a few months old but it’s not really ‘out of date’ as someone said. But if it was out of date, the fact is time is seeing the IFR consistently coming down, not raising. There are a few reasons:
For one, though treatments are somewhat of a taboo subject for some reason, never the less they have improved significantly since the early waves. A number of repurposed antiviral drugs have been found to be effective to reduce the likelihood of hospitalisation and death. Ivermectin for one but there are others. And critically, catastrophic errors from early waves are no longer being repeated, for example ventilating patients unnecessarily. Due to panic, in early waves, decisions were made to fully ventilate patients that might not have been so otherwise. Patients on ventilation are not sharing the air with their healthcare providers, but the process of ventilation causes extra stress on the lungs and can lead to worse outcomes and should only be used as a last gasp measure.
Secondly, the typical evolution of a virus strain is toward greater transmissibility but lower mortality. Natural selection demands this path for a virus to thrive. You don’t get much use out of a dead host. Covid seems to be following the typical path in this regard. Look everywhere around the world. The data is there for anyone to see themselves on the world in data or other similar sites. In later waves, the “cases” may go up to similar levels to earlier waves, but hospitalisations and deaths are far fewer.
Thirdly, testing has increased. Now most good studies take this into account. But if someone is trying to digest raw numbers and looking at deaths / cases. You have to take into account that in early waves, when the epidemic was probably at its peak (maybe not in oz due to being an island but to some extent) many positive cases went by undetected. Even in Australia it could have easily been 10x the cases last year. We just don’t know. We didn’t test the entire population.
Anyway, sorry if this pisses anyone off. Like I said I’m doing this to be true to myself. I kind of feel guilty that I haven’t done enough to fight against what I see as the greatest corporate / authoritarian power grab in my lifetime. SER8 made a quip evoking “gas chambers”. I never said that, but I would ask anyone reading this, at least draw your line in the sand. Segregation is upon us. Are you ok with segregation? Your call, I respect your decision. Can people be removed from social life? Can people be prevented from working to support their family? Can people be detained? There’s a few steps before we need to worry about gas chambers. But if we ever did get to gas chambers, it will certainly be too late for anyone to do anything. Once segregation really takes hold, will you be against it? Neutral? Or will you be the kind of person that actively supports it?
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. – Nietzsche