Trump

[lsz]

I have a question.

I have hunted high and low, left and right and can not find any record of this poll

Do you think he

1. Gets given information by his staff that is misleading
2. Is so used to telling mis truths that he actually believes this
3. Knows exactly what he is doing

 

[h27272727]

You can name call & label it ‘woke nonsense’ all you like. Fact is they lost to Trump whose political career was dead in the water after January 6th. People would rather vote for a felon over someone who is too woke to answer what a woman is or say trans people competing in women’s sport is unfair🤣.

Trumps anti-woke ad campaign won him the election & you need to find a way to cope with that, I understand that upsets you but facts don’t care about your feelings. Run another far left democrat like AOC & they’ll get trampled again in 3 years time.

(Source New York Times)

So [the Trump campaign] poured still more money into the ads, running them during football games, which prompted Charlamagne Tha God, the host of the Breakfast Club, a popular show among Black listeners, to express exasperation — and his on-air complaints gave the Trump team fodder for yet another commercial. The Charlamagne ad ranked as one of the Trump team’s most effective 30-second spots, according to an analysis by Future Forward, Ms. Harris’s leading super PAC. It shifted the race 2.7 percentage points in Mr. Trump’s favor after viewers watched it.

The anti-trans ads cut to the core of the Trump argument: that Ms. Harris was “dangerously liberal” — the exact vulnerability her team was most worried about. The ads were effective with Black and Latino men, according to the Trump team, but also with moderate suburban white women who might be concerned about transgender athletes in girls’ sports.

Those were the same suburban women Ms. Harris was trying to mobilize with ads about abortion.

Democrats struggled to respond. At one point, former President Bill Clinton told an associate, “We have to answer it and say we won’t do it.” He even raised the issue in a conversation with the campaign and was told the Trump ads were not necessarily having an impact, according to two people familiar with his conversations. He never broached the topic publicly.

Hi my previous post to Brookie sort of answers to this,

I don’t disagree that the ads were effective. I think that’s the problem with them. They grab some clips, propagandise them, stoke a culture war and hope people don’t stop to think “what will the Republican Party actually do to improve the situation”.

As for the % points changing due to the ad, how does that work? Is it based on a poll of sorts? If so, I think it’s fair to say polls are generally unreliable as a quantitative data source. Eg. They are typically great at capturing some overall trends, but to extrapolate that to the entire population / voting base the requirement is that there be no response bias (which is borderline impossible without a national mandatory poll).

As for the situation - I think it is in bad faith (or perhaps revisionist) to suggest the election was predominantly based on “woke” ideas. Four years on from Covid prices had stayed up (global phenomena) and naturally people start to think any change is a good change. I understand why people think that way. Immigration also dominated headlines and political messaging. But really it boiled down to Trump fear mongering about the economy, immigrants, woke and the democrats doing the same about Trump. Republicans mentioned little policy, Democrats only partially touched on theirs and that was that. It was fairly representative of the trends in US politics / media in general over the years. More interest in headlines and drama than political policy

 

[Ohgeez]

I have a question.

I have hunted high and low, left and right and can not find any record of this poll

Do you think he

1. Gets given information by his staff that is misleading
2. Is so used to telling mis truths that he actually believes this
3. Knows exactly what he is doing

What poll are you referring too?

 

[Brookie1973]

Oh my bad I edited my comment (the “such as…” one) after you got to it

But sure,

Off the bat, yes I do think that confirmation bias is a valid concern (particularly when searching for data, there’s always a risk of being selective).

That said, I think the recent post I made on trans versus male mass shootings shows I can change my stance (particularly when the data is there to support it). For example, I came into that post thinking that ‘trans people being 5 times less likely to be violent than males’ was still far too low. Looking at just two datasets I actually got 8.6 times myself, so in retrospect the value of 5 actually appeared fairly reasonable / a safe estimate.

Anyways to answer your question; this is the first US election cycle I’ve had interest in, so I watched a fair bit of Kamala speeches. While I know for a fact that she spoke of trans people, there were only so many times the topic was actually discussed. If you look through the footage on YouTube you’ll also find that more often than not the topic was raised by an audience member in a town hall, or an interviewer/reporter. It really was a small focus that got a lot of media attention.

Why did it get so much attention? Why is it still a commonly held viewpoint amongst Republican fans today?

I think the following may be a factor. From CNN (also available elsewhere):

Over the first half of October, former President Donald Trump and his allies poured more than $21 million into television ads attacking Vice President Kamala Harris over her past support of certain rights for transgender people – a message they have spread during nationally televised NFL games, college football broadcasts and in battleground states.​

​

It’s a staggering sum to spend on a topic that most voters say isn’t a top priority for them this election. But Trump’s campaign is betting any voters still choosing between the two candidates can be swayed to take sides in a cultural fight that has torn apart state houses and school boards in recent years – one that has put tremendous focus on an incredibly small, marginalized group that already faces discrimination-based violence. Republicans in key Senate races have mirrored that messaging as part of a playbook painting Democrats as out of touch with most voters.​

This really tied in with my earlier idea (previous post) that the Democrats were effectively reduced to being a “woke, radical party” despite having a sizeable policy handbook with fairly standard ideas in it.

On Kamala, I wasn’t particularly inspired by her. Thought she would’ve been an OK candidate in the past but she probably wasn’t confrontational enough for what she was contending with and did not convince voters that she would meaningfully change things.

I’m not really following the train of your argument. Are you saying the Democrats do not favour trans rights, that Kamala was flawed in not pushing back on accusations they were, or in not coming out and fully committing to trans rights and other “woke nonsense”?

I suggest the core issue is that Trump is a politician of conviction, and people trust that what he says he believes. The problem for the democrats is that their true conviction politicians, such as AOC and the NY Mayor candidate, espouse views which are too radical for middle America, and these are the ones many Americans associate with the Democrat party. Other supposedly more moderate democrat candidates come across as either being disingenuous or lacking conviction (“I’ll say this, but I don’t really believe it”). This is the fault of the democrats, not Trump. He has just been politically savvy enough to play to the theme. That is just good politics.

The democrats of today are a far cry from what they were say 20 years ago. They are less and less a sensible alternative government, and more a party of protest and resistance. That is on them.

 

[lsz]

What poll are you referring too?

Exactly. I could not find one that he quoted at his UN speech

 

[manly al]

Most likely Trumpie would have been re elected in 2020 all things normal if not for the either part perception , part reality that he mishandled or mismanaged the Covid response in the U S when the endemic was causing no end of problems or at its peak
Probably turns out that some of the negative perception was a bit overblown or out of proportion but such is the fluctuating nature of politics anywhere
Immigration issue and whatever negative connotations of the so called Woke agenda , certainly worked in Trump "s favor at the 24 election
Kamala Harris was in an awkward predicament once she replaced Biden and being wedged on some contentious issues advocated by him when she felt probably obliged but no doubt a bit reluctant to endorse
Much bigger issues not getting much publicity now but will inevitably come into play like BRICS having an impact on particularly U S influence in the globe soon and not sure if Trumpie has the composure or outlook to accommodate the U S "s or some other western countries best response or interests there
Seems totally erratic on many of his international positions, maybe not so in domestic politics but could be more on the unpredictable and uncertain side for the remaining 3 and a half years of his term

 

[Highflier]

Hi my previous post to Brookie sort of answers to this,

I don’t disagree that the ads were effective. I think that’s the problem with them. They grab some clips, propagandise them, stoke a culture war and hope people don’t stop to think “what will the Republican Party actually do to improve the situation”.

As for the % points changing due to the ad, how does that work? Is it based on a poll of sorts? If so, I think it’s fair to say polls are generally unreliable as a quantitative data source. Eg. They are typically great at capturing some overall trends, but to extrapolate that to the entire population / voting base the requirement is that there be no response bias (which is borderline impossible without a national mandatory poll).

As for the situation - I think it is in bad faith (or perhaps revisionist) to suggest the election was predominantly based on “woke” ideas. Four years on from Covid prices had stayed up (global phenomena) and naturally people start to think any change is a good change. I understand why people think that way. Immigration also dominated headlines and political messaging. But really it boiled down to Trump fear mongering about the economy, immigrants, woke and the democrats doing the same about Trump. Republicans mentioned little policy, Democrats only partially touched on theirs and that was that. It was fairly representative of the trends in US politics / media in general over the years. More interest in headlines and drama than political policy

I don't really want to get involved with this ,and I will know doubt regret it and stir up a few, but anyways ,,,
I don't think Trumps victory came down to Kamal caring for They Them and Trump caring for You, as brilliant a slogan and message as that was. Nor was it about the immigrants eating the cats and dawgs 🙂
I think Kamala didn't do herself any favours with picking a weirdo like Walz to run with her ,she would have been better to pick the "gay " guy she dumped because she didn't think people would go for a gay person ,and so she picked Walz. That in itself is a great reason to doubt her ability to think at all and her decision making abilities in general

In addition the left in the govt in the US have persecuted Trump relentlessly (rightly or wrongly depending on your point of view) since he first decided to run in the 2016 campaign and then after he lost the 2020 election they kept at it with inspiration from J6th ,and then they turned it up a notch when he went for 2024.
I think a lot of the American public saw thru that and called it for it was --political persecution .
Something that happens in various counties in the world where political opponents are got rid of or disappeared.

Secondly the word felon is liberally used by the left when describing Trump when in fact the felony's were tant amount to book keeping errors, which is why they never left NY state as charges. Again the US public could see this over reach

Lastly the US exit form Afghanistan was peak US weakness on display ,and Americans were embarrassed at the images and the what 80B of kit left there
It was no coincidence that the likes of Xi and Putin all then rose to the occasion amping up the aggression and their campaigns to the point where we are now.
So imo the US public and the free world for that matter were pretty happy to see the back of Biden Harris ,Walz and the weak left in general and say hello to someone (with all his faults, baggage, self promoting, narcissism, egotism, sometimes quixotic behaviour, unpredictability ,volatility etc ) ,who said he would put America first, make the worlds agitators think twice and dare I say it make America great again. On that account the US citizens will make the final call.

But from where I sit I feel a lot safer that Trump is in office than what I would have with Kamala and Walz (god help us)
So 12 months in he is doing his best to bring an end to the Ukraine War (the success of which is still dubious to date ) and the middle east conflict .But whatever the success you cant say he is not trying his best to end both of those conflicts. He also claims to have finished off a few other wars.

His stealth bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities was just enough to let the likes of Iran and others know that you poke the US and its high tech military kit and personnel at your peril .
It was a bit like when Iran bombed the Al Asad US base in early 2020 killing some US personnel ,and for a moment the world wondered if it was the the beginning of WW3 ,when Trump then sent a surgical strike into an Iranian airbase killing know one but completely levelling the complex, after which he was reported to have said words to the effect "that's what I have done with 30 seconds notice ,your move Iran" .Despite claims to the contrary that Trump is a danger to the world ,so far he has proven imo to be an earnest peacemaker and cool headed tactician.
Although the jury is possibly still out on that with Putin.

His speech to the UN last night was typical Trump, scheduled to talk for 15 minutes he spoke for an hour + and called out the UN for the weak farce it is and all the weak western nations that have helped skittle the cease fire deals with Hamas with their faux recognition of a Palestine state and ,absolutely prosecuted the fallacy and scam that is climate change and the renewable energy hoax
with bullseye accuracy delivered in that highly entertaining Trump style .(which I must admit I like seeing being sent up by the various Trump impersonators on IG etc )
Anyways go Trump and Go Manly

 

[Brookie1973]

I don't really want to get involved with this ,and I will know doubt regret it and stir up a few, but anyways ,,,
I don't think Trumps victory came down to Kamal caring for They Them and Trump caring for You, as brilliant a slogan and message as that was. Nor was it about the immigrants eating the cats and dawgs 🙂
I think Kamala didn't do herself any favours with picking a weirdo like Walz to run with her ,she would have been better to pick the "gay " guy she dumped because she didn't think people would go for a gay person ,and so she picked Walz. That in itself is a great reason to doubt her ability to think at all and her decision making abilities in general

In addition the left in the govt in the US have persecuted Trump relentlessly (rightly or wrongly depending on your point of view) since he first decided to run in the 2016 campaign and then after he lost the 2020 election they kept at it with inspiration from J6th ,and then they turned it up a notch when he went for 2024.
I think a lot of the American public saw thru that and called it for it was --political persecution .
Something that happens in various counties in the world where political opponents are got rid of or disappeared.

Secondly the word felon is liberally used by the left when describing Trump when in fact the felony's were tant amount to book keeping errors, which is why they never left NY state as charges. Again the US public could see this over reach

Lastly the US exit form Afghanistan was peak US weakness on display ,and Americans were embarrassed at the images and the what 80B of kit left there
It was no coincidence that the likes of Xi and Putin all then rose to the occasion amping up the aggression and their campaigns to the point where we are now.
So imo the US public and the free world for that matter were pretty happy to see the back of Biden Harris ,Walz and the weak left in general and say hello to someone (with all his faults, baggage, self promoting, narcissism, egotism, sometimes quixotic behaviour, unpredictability ,volatility etc ) ,who said he would put America first, make the worlds agitators think twice and dare I say it make America great again. On that account the US citizens will make the final call.

But from where I sit I feel a lot safer that Trump is in office than what I would have with Kamala and Walz (god help us)
So 12 months in he is doing his best to bring an end to the Ukraine War (the success of which is still dubious to date ) and the middle east conflict .But whatever the success you cant say he is not trying his best to end both of those conflicts. He also claims to have finished off a few other wars.

His stealth bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities was just enough to let the likes of Iran and others know that you poke the US and its high tech military kit and personnel at your peril .
It was a bit like when Iran bombed the Al Asad US base in early 2020 killing some US personnel ,and for a moment the world wondered if it was the the beginning of WW3 ,when Trump then sent a surgical strike into an Iranian airbase killing know one but completely levelling the complex, after which he was reported to have said words to the effect "that's what I have done with 30 seconds notice ,your move Iran" .Despite claims to the contrary that Trump is a danger to the world ,so far he has proven imo to be an earnest peacemaker and cool headed tactician.
Although the jury is possibly still out on that with Putin.

His speech to the UN last night was typical Trump, scheduled to talk for 15 minutes he spoke for an hour + and called out the UN for the weak farce it is and all the weak western nations that have helped skittle the cease fire deals with Hamas with their faux recognition of a Palestine state and ,absolutely prosecuted the fallacy and scam that is climate change and the renewable energy hoax
with bullseye accuracy delivered in that highly entertaining Trump style .(which I must admit I like seeing being sent up by the various Trump impersonators on IG etc )
Anyways go Trump and Go Manly

It’s like I said in another post somewhere, leftists in western countries do not have their own countries interests at heart. They are globalists who would prefer to see western values replaced by global socialism. I’m sure our resident lefties can confirm this is their ideal.

Leftists would be better served being open and honest about the fact they are anti democracy, anti borders, anti free speech, anti nation states - at least then they will have the courage of their convictions and people can decide. We currently have this farce where we are meant to believe that Albo, Starmer, Macron et al have the best interests of Australia, UK and France at heart. Does anyone really think AOC, Ilhan Omar, Mamdani etc care about the US over their own ideology?

 

[Highflier]

It’s like I said in another post somewhere, leftists in western countries do not have their own countries interests at heart. They are globalists who would prefer to see western values replaced by global socialism. I’m sure our resident lefties can confirm this is their ideal.

Leftists would be better served being open and honest about the fact they are anti democracy, anti borders, anti free speech, anti nation states - at least then they will have the courage of their convictions and people can decide. We currently have this farce where we are meant to believe that Albo, Starmer, Macron et al have the best interests of Australia, UK and France at heart. Does anyone really think AOC, Ilhan Omar, Mamdani etc care about the US over their own ideology?

Agree 100% Brookie, and you can add to that list of anti's , anti the individual and anti the family unit and anti aspiration for anything but the state
Albo apart from the embarrassment that he is as a PM, is just a slightly mellowed old style commie with new teeth, new suit and some stomach stapling .
I shake by head that a bloke who has never had a proper job ever ,that has basically worked in the Labor party back office his whole life as a professional back stabber and numbers counter, and who has been on the public payroll pretty much from birth (not that that is his fault) can be in a position to be PM, unbelievable ??
He has never worked for anyone (putting aside where as a 17yo he lasted 8 weeks or so as a trainee bank teller for CBA) where he has had to preform ,or write a wages cheque, or work for no wages while starting a business of any kind, yet can make policy decisions for the rest of us of which he has no idea or experience of the ramifications, again unbelievable
And don't get me started on the hollowing out of the Australian economy with the Net Zero BS and the sovereign risk that creates or the Building China's Future ,again unbelievable stupidity