From the Burrow
Well, well, well. It’s come to this.
After a season at least as strange as, and probably stranger than, last year, we are again just 80 minutes away from the Big Dance.
For those Rabbitoh faithful residing in Queensland it must be some sort of treat getting to watch the footy live week after week. For those of us locked down elsewhere, well we’ve had to get used to screaming at the TV on a weekly basis. I’m used to it by now, but I can’t say it’s my Rabbitoh watching method of choice.
And I can tell you my family were not at all impressed with me standing six inches from the screen bellowing “NO ****ING WAY” about six times when Keaon was penalised for that ridiculous “late” hit on Cleary two weeks ago.
In fact I was so exhausted at full-time I really was glad to have the week off to recover. And I think my family was even gladder.
So here we are. Manly. The Prelim. The hardest game to win and the worst to lose. And our record in the past decade hasn’t been too flash, as we all are no doubt painfully aware. It might be difficult to sift through again, but let’s review. Humour me, I think it will be worth it.
2012 v Bulldogs: Overachieved to make the Prelim. Not expected to win. Gave it a red hot crack until Reyno buggered his hammy and that was it.
2013 v Manly: After smashing Melbourne in week 1, we were massive favourites. Led 14-0 early and crashed. One of the worst nights ever. But the 2014 Premiership was, to some degree, won on that night. The pain was so great that the immense resolve the following year took us all the way.
2014 v Roosters: Obliterated Manly in week 1 but fell behind the reigning Premiers 12-0. We all felt sick. But then followed one of the greatest hours of our lives. Te’o, Burgess and the rest of them bullied the Roosters into submission. Remember the drive home? Remember how we felt the next day?
2018 v Roosters: Underdogs and fairly well beaten. Stuck in the game for quite a while but never really looked like it. A crap night.
2019 v Raiders: Underdogs playing in the Viking cauldron. Not expected to win at all, but absolutely took it to them all night. Didn’t get a single call and had some shocking luck, but still should have won it at the end. Devastating defeat. A very long drive home.
2020 v Penrith: Underdogs again. The Panthers hardly lost a game all year. Stuck with them all the way and were a real chance of jagging a win off the back of Adam’s 40-20 with a couple of minutes to go. Except he stepped on the line.
So, a 1-5 record. Not pretty on the surface. But we’ve only been favourites once, so I’m not overly concerned with the “Souths can’t win in the Prelim” narrative. Put simply, we have usually come up against a stronger, better opponent. And we have usually taken them right to the wire. I think our opponents this year are different.
Now I don’t want to underestimate Manly, but I’m not sure they are really up to our standard. Yes, there’s Turbo. And his brother and DCE and Foran. But other than that? Olakau’atu is strong. The rest of them? Not much experience in big games and, to be honest, not much else either.
We’ve got strength, speed and class all over the park this week. Adam and Cody should create a myriad of opportunities for the outside backs. I can see at least four tries for us. If the defence works hard for the whole 80 minutes I don’t see four tries for Manly. Of course, clock off for ten minutes, which we have been known to do at times this year, and they can score enough points just in that period. But what I saw two weeks ago makes me think a clock off period is highly unlikely.
For me, it’s all about defence and discipline. No silly penalties. Very few six agains. Kick - Chase. Line speed and hard work. All bloody night. And a high completion rate.The tries will come.
Our resolve? We’ve lost this game the last three years. It’s Adam’s last year. And Wayne’s. And Jayden Su’a’s and perhaps Benji’s. For them, it’s now or never. There’s a little bit of 2014 (Burgess, Te’o, Tuqiri) about this group.
Manly haven’t beaten Penrith or Melbourne or Souths all year. They beat half the Roosters last week.
They’ll go hard. But I think we’ll be too good.
Souths by 14.
