Have a quiet confidence about this game, but won't be disappointed if we lose so long as our game doesn't regress.
As fantastic as the win against the Tigers felt, the stats show:
- Our completions were still not where they need to be (33/45 or 73%)
- Our play-the-ball speed was over 4-secs (way too slow against a rampant and fit Panthers outfit who have conceded less than 7-pts per game on average)
- Kick defusals need improvement (67% - will be problematic against a more effective halves pairing of Luai/Cleary who have a superior kicking game)
- We missed 16 tackles and made a further 15 ineffective (which Kikau/Yeo/Martin and their entire backline will punish)
There were some great moments in that Tigers game - those breaks from Turbo were sublime, however they were through a glaring weakness I posted in the pre-game Tigers thread (their weak D in their Centres). There are not the same chinks in the Panthers armor, their Def is simply outstanding, they have had less than half the next nearest team Pts Against scored against them.
The Panthers will not be complacent - pretty sure the last 2 weeks especially and the amazing FA repair work we have done (76-6 in 2 weeks) will have teams acknowledging we aren't the easy-beats we were in March and that they need to aim up to beat us. However they haven't been tested since Rd 3 against the Storm - who were understrength themselves (Panthers were without Cleary admittedly).
We are not full strength, but are arguably playing better than our on-paper full-strength team. We are a definite chance.
There is some pride to recapture for the Manly team - pretty sure they have the motivation to fire up after that loss at home to the Panthers. They just need to play smart, do their homework on things like:
- Targeting To'o with kicks - he is a beast at 2nd/3rd runs out of their half a identified earlier - 300+ meters against the Knights
- Running boppers at Kikau and tiring him out - he is a big liability in Def when he is tired, and prone to going high when gassed as well (penalties)
- Rush up on Burton & Staines a bit, who have an error or two in them
- Adopting a similar strategy of containment not just for Kikau but for Capewell too - danger is forgetting how good Capewell is and just tunnel-visioning obvious threat Kikau
- Slowing down Luai's play-the-ball speed when he makes runs, he gets them on the front foot a lot (wrestlefk the bugger a bit)
Panthers have a super well-rounded team, we will have to exploit any errors they make and keep our errors to a minimum. We need repeat sets, early and often. We need an 80%+ completion rate, and to protect Tommy and our halves. If we exhibit the Def we have over the last couple of weeks with our straight-line intact, and are mindful of their offloading ability and shut-down their 2nd phase play that breaks the line and eats easy meters, then we won't have a cricket score put on us like last time.
The Panthers will race out of the blocks with an up-tempo game and look to gas us early, likely getting help from the refs in the process with 6-agains, so we need a top notch bench strategy.
Panthers are used to leading/winning and if we ruffle them, we can definitely beat them - will be an amazing achievement if we do.
Go Manly!
