Pre-Game Manly V Knights [Round 19, 2024]

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4 Pines Park
14 Jul 2024 04:05 PM

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That's a silly statement.
Which of these clubs, which has been thrashed at least once this season, does deserve to be in the eight:
St George
'Boys
Canberra
Canterbury
Cronulla
Newcastle
'Fins
Brisbane
Souffs
NZ
Titans
P'matta
Tigers

By your reckoning, being beaten by a club of similar quality, means you don't deserve a shot at the finals.
There are 14 clubs still capable of making the eight. The only certainties are Melbourne, Penrith and Easts - all of whom we have beaten. Manly has been competitive in all of its matches, never being thrashed, which is why we have a positive F/A. Many of the other 14 clubs have a negative F/A.
To reach the top eight this season a club needs only to win one more match than it loses; it's that competitive. It's been proven any team can beat another, which is just how the NRL likes it.
Regardless of whether we lose against Newcastle we'll still be a better than 50% chance of making their eight.
You are missing my point a bit. At this stage in the season we need to be winning matches like this to do as much as possible to get a place in the finals. This match is winnable and if we are serious about finals we should be winning it.
 
This is the type of game that worries me.

DCE / Jake out is arguably more important than the Knights losses - Ponga has been out most of the past few months anyway, Best has missed a bit too and Gagai is a better Origin player than clubman. TLT should be interesting!
  • It's Hasting's 100th and he has a bit to prove.
  • Knights always lift against us
  • Knights Fwd pack last week was top-shelf: Saifiti, Frizell, Pearce-Paul, Thompson, Brailey...we'll have a hard time controlling the middle
  • Knights have been winning away games this year against teams around them on the ladder
  • Seibold is 1 from 5 against the Knights in his coaching career.
  • Home game for Manly after a great win with everyone backing us, and against a team that has generally been falling to top-8 sides whilst putting the teams below them away (Same can't be said for Manly) - reminds me of the expectation relating to the Raiders game, where we gave up a 20-0 lead.

Some key performances needed this weekend include:

Aloiai
With Jake gone, Aloiai needs to step up and be our packleader, and just stop the careless errors - his mistake on the first hitup after we scored the first try last week against the Cowboys is the sort of thing that turns a game, and it did - we were killing them early, and that let just enough air out of the tyres for the Cowboys to claw back the ascendency before butchering a certain try or two, and then getting one on hte board shortly after. It was his only handling error sure, but it was just terrible timing. Those sorts of plays can't happen this weekend to give the Knights anything, and Aloiai is all too often in the thick of these types of Keppie-esque lapses.

Brooks
Guy had a promising start to the season but hasn't put a standout performance in for weeks. Attack was on him in the Bunnies game and we came away with a bagel. Not saying he has been poor, but by the same token he just hasn't been impactful in the way you would want from a player who was a marquee man for the last decade. He has played 2nd fiddle to DCE enough to absorb some quality, surely. Put up this week mate - Hastings/Pryce is not exactly a comp-winning halves pairing, Brooks has more than double their games played combined. Oh, and Brooks is going to have to win us ground with his kicking game - and the Knights will know it will be all on him as it was in the Souths game. Last week him and DCE ran a clinic, splitting the duties well. He also needs another good weekend on D - they hit him hard on the weekend and he did pretty good making over 30 tackles and missing < 5.

View attachment 27574

Turbo
Last week was a warm-up test-the-waters game I get it, and Turbo didn't sound happy with his game when interviewed on the field (which is good - he should feel it was below par, as it was). Out of our back-5 Turbo had the least impressive stats and through being targeted he was largely invisible - the Knights will do the same if the below stats are the results. With Origin off his radar now, and against the likely makeshist backline the Knights will put up, he should dominate them (on paper). We need a statement outing from him that shows he is improving, remembering how dominant he can be, building momentum for Finals, not fading into a confidence-bereft liability where we are thinking of a rookie Hoppa as a potentially better option.

View attachment 27576

*It also suggests to me that having someone like Croker come back in at 6 to play a full 80 after such a long stint out of the side is probably a bad idea - Croker should come back as a 14 when we have the proper team framework around him, to use him at our discretion.

Bullimore
Bully will need to get a lot more minutes this week, and may even start with Sips to keep Brownie's impact on the bench (with Aloiai probs getting the Lock spot). We're up against a pretty mean Fwd pack this weekend, even if their backs may seem underdone. This is an opportunity for him which I hope he takes, as he has had some flashes of the goods this season.

The Rest
If others like Sipley, Haumole, Lawton, Talau and Saab replicate their form of last week - and Garrick shows the same level of effort without the flickpass-brainfades - then we can do this.

As for who we go to in the halves, goodness knows. I don't like the idea of moving Talau around as a utility - he is proving valuable on an edge defensively, he is defusing kicks on that side pretty well too, and some of the effort plays are top-shelf (1-on-1 steal one of the many individual efforts that won us the game).

Lawton will be needed as a 2nd row option with Burbo out, but he also seemed to improve our attack when he went to dummy half - Simpkin can play 80, but had probably his worst game for us in attk. He made a massive 53 tackles with only 3 missed which was a better effort than Blues 9 Robson, and his passing service is good. He made some mistakes tho, and only made 1 ineffective dummy run - around the ruck we got little to nothing from the Refs either which made the metres through the middle a slog.

'Mole better not go into his shell coz of SOO - someone needs to remind him that it was Madge that erred in how he was used as a player off the bench, not anything he did to deserve omission. If all goes well he has a Fk-U Madge game and shows everyone what he has. Its hard to sub Martin/Crichton off when they are murdering the Maroons like that, and Barnett brings a slightly different skillset that works better with two 80min backrowers.

Backing up good wins has been a challenge for us all year. We beat the top-3 teams, and haven't won the following game (although we drew the Warriors, it felt like a loss given we had it won with 2mins to go). Also, winning without DCE this year is like winning without Turbo any other year imo.

Back to Australia with me just in time for this game 🙂 Go well Silvertails!
great analysis mate ,fanatstic
 
winning this game lies largely on the shoulders of Brookes and turbo. Well paid senior players in spine positions, they need to lead by example and get their hands dirty. They have both played in leisure suits for most of the games they have played this year.

The team is going to be looking for leadership without the voices of Jake and cherry there. These two simply have to stand up.
 
I think it is reflective of how poor Brooks played against the Vermin with the selection of Jamie.
I agree that Brooks was poor against Souffs and that he needs to lift in this one. But I'm not so sure Seibs is thinking that a 1st NRL gig starter should be put in coz of that. I hope Humphries comes in and plays well, I really do (just like I do about every Manly player) but I just haven't seen it in the few games (admittedly) that I've seen him play this year. Hastings will be a huge challenge 1st up for him. We can only guess why Seibs didn't pick him before but he has now and it could be coz there literally is no one else.
But anyway, I'm also worried about Lehi on the wing coz I can see him getting monstered by a big and aggro Knights pack, particularly when he's trying to bring the ball out from our line. At FB he at least got a bit more time to pick his direction to run but if they keep him in that corner all game, it could be very tough. I wouldn't have minded Seibs keeping Tom in the centre and Lehi at FB and either Scouup or Ray on the wing.
We also look very thin relative to the Knights, on the bench.
 
I agree that Brooks was poor against Souffs and that he needs to lift in this one. But I'm not so sure Seibs is thinking that a 1st NRL gig starter should be put in coz of that. I hope Humphries comes in and plays well, I really do (just like I do about every Manly player) but I just haven't seen it in the few games (admittedly) that I've seen him play this year. Hastings will be a huge challenge 1st up for him. We can only guess why Seibs didn't pick him before but he has now and it could be coz there literally is no one else.
But anyway, I'm also worried about Lehi on the wing coz I can see him getting monstered by a big and aggro Knights pack, particularly when he's trying to bring the ball out from our line. At FB he at least got a bit more time to pick his direction to run but if they keep him in that corner all game, it could be very tough. I wouldn't have minded Seibs keeping Tom in the centre and Lehi at FB and either Scouup or Ray on the wing.
We also look very thin relative to the Knights, on the bench.
I agree a first gamer compared to a bloke who has played over 200 games will need to own the game, Brooks for me has been well below par with the ball in hand for several weeks, his kicking game can only get better also.

The selection of Jamie is most likely for his kicking in general play, defensively Jamie has been below par like you say, hence why I think he may have been overlooked for the Vermin game.

On Hoppa I agree his frame is very light for the tough carried out and gaining that quick play the ball, with Turbos fitness maybe Hoppa spends some time at the back also.
 
winning this game lies largely on the shoulders of Brookes and turbo. Well paid senior players in spine positions, they need to lead by example and get their hands dirty. They have both played in leisure suits for most of the games they have played this year.

The team is going to be looking for leadership without the voices of Jake and cherry there. These two simply have to stand up.
Don't underestimate the Knights pack. Winning this game will lie largely with our forwards. The fortress will do the rest.

But if our middles get beat, then it doesn't matter what Turbo and Brooks do
 
While I agree with you regarding his creative skills from the one it's his defence that's been worrying me at the back
Yes his defence looks fragile even last week in the centre's he didn't look comfortable but in attack it should bring us more points hopefully we can grind out a win
 
Weren't people saying on here a couple of days back that Humphries was very ordinary in Reserves last week? This concerns me big time.
 
I agree a first gamer compared to a bloke who has played over 200 games will need to own the game, Brooks for me has been well below par with the ball in hand for several weeks, his kicking game can only get better also.

The selection of Jamie is most likely for his kicking in general play, defensively Jamie has been below par like you say, hence why I think he may have been overlooked for the Vermin game.

On Hoppa I agree his frame is very light for the tough carried out and gaining that quick play the ball, with Turbos fitness maybe Hoppa spends some time at the back also.
Yep, there could be a bit of chopping and changing during the game.
 
I don't disagree, it's just very odd considering seibs's recent commentary re Tom & the club statements etc
I wasn't to impressed with his game last week, not that he did anything wrong, just used to him being more involved in attack, they did say it wasn't a permanent change, Faulalo on the bench just incase it goes pear shaped
 
There is no way Turbo should be playing at fullback. The only positive about his game last week was that he managed to get through 80 minutes. He looked like he still had a very long way to go.

The other thing is, Lehi has arguably been our best fullback this season. I'd rate him ahead of Koula and Tom (the 2024 edition). He's wasted on the wing. We'd be better off with Jaxson Paulo - who was one of our best against the Bunnies - or Ray-Ray out there, especially if he's marking up against Marzhew, who is an absolute behemoth.
 
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