Election 2010, who do you think will win and why??

[Canteen Worker]

7.30 report tonight predicted that polling in both Victoria and SA is very strong towards the ALP. Again, there won't be a uniform swing but Antony Green is suggesting the coalition could drop two to four seats in those states, offsetting potential losses in NSW and QLD. Key to all this is how the 'undecided' vote goes. There is a lot to lose for both parties and an election to win.

I know a lot of traditional ALP voters who are angry at the manner in which Rudd was dumped. I am not sure if this is reflected in the polls. However, some of these will not vote for Abbott on election day and so it will also be interesting to see if that has an impact.

I am also interested to see if Gillard focusing on the economic record will make an impact - as Abbott and co have stood against the stimulus spending, which is widely credited, worldwide, in avoiding a recession. The rhetoric about debt is also very hollow as in percentage of GDP, especially compared world-wide, it is very insignificant.

 

[The Gronk]

I feel like labor has bottomed out and is coming back into it now. 

 

[Rusty]

Thanks Rusty, it was just and educated opinion I was after.

I should add the new National candidate was the editor of the major newspaper in the area, The Wagga Daily Advertiser,  for many years. Which has him well known in the community but also unpopular with many because of the newspapers direction under his leadership.

I wait with interest to see what happens, but you could of \"knocked me down with a feather\" when the Libs decided to run a candidate. Do you know why they would do this?

It is unusual for the coalition to put up two candidates in a seat but not unique, in fact the National party has a history of nominating more then one candidate themselves, I can't quote specifics but I think the Nats once ran three candidates in the same election.

I haven't heard anything so all I can do is guess. That said I can think of a few possible reasons.

1. The liberal party has been desperate to seem united under Abbott, and as such head office would be unlikely to challenge a local branch. Perhaps the local branch decided to nominate someone and Abbott and HQ couldn't or wouldn't do anything.

2. Perhaps the decision dates back to Turnbulls time when the Libs and Nats were not on great terms, especially over his support for the ETS. At that time the Libs might have nominated a candidate to show up the Nats.

3. Could be a backroom deal, ie. perhaps to prevent the Lib candidate from running as an independent.

4. Could be an experiment by the coalition to see if nominating two candidates actually increases the base conservative vote.

5. Perhaps it is a ploy to capture the urban conservative vote, with a growing urban population in the seat the Nats might have seen a decaying base vote, asked for a Lib to run and provide a flow of preferences and boost the two party preferred vote.

Number 5 is my pick by the way, regardless of the reason you can bet advisers to both the Lib and Nat leadership will be watching how it all plays out, if the conservative vote is boosted then perhaps we will see the situation replicated, perhaps in the future even into every seat.

 

[bob dylan]

Thanks again.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Rusty....do you live for elections???

You are not Antony Green in disguise are you??

But don't worry I am enjoying the posts

 

[The Gronk]

News down here is that the Libs think they will lose 2-3 seats in  Victoria and 1-2 in South Australia.

Labor is polling at 59-41 in Vic. 

I think people will also be surprised as to the seats they manage to hold in Queensland, and that while everyone keeps banging on about western sydney, most of the seats there that are marginal are held by the libs. 

 

[bob dylan]

Rusty....do you live for elections???

You are not Antony Green in disguise are you??

But don't worry I am enjoying the posts

Me too, and giving some appause for the efforts.

It never ceases to amaze me how many informed people we have here on so many different subjects.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Oh yes he deserves an applause, very knowledgeable.

I enjoy election times, I hate political advertisements (although saw a ripper today from Bob Katter in FNQ....if you haven't seen it jump onto Youtube and ask for Bob Katter, it's worth the time to do so, but I enjoy the cut and thrust and also the bull**** that gets expoused, and nothing is more fun (election wise) that sitting up on election night and watching it all unfold....ABC is best.

But Rusty is SERIOUSLY into it all!

 

[bob dylan]

I reckon the they should be barred from mentioning the other Party in their ads. I hate how they try to run each other down.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Negative advertising is vert off putting...happy to listen what they'll do for me, but telling me the others are wankers doesn't pull my chain!!

 

[Canteen Worker]

Well done Rusty. You sound very well informed, though fairly optimistic as well. The campaigns in the marginal seats will be very telling. I have a close relative who is working for one of the parties in a marginal seat and it is a very different game. A lot of the political commentators have said today that Rudd coming out in support of Gillard will have a big impact, one way or the other.

 

[Rusty]

Rusty....do you live for elections???

You are not Antony Green in disguise are you??

But don't worry I am enjoying the posts

Thanks heaps guys, I enjoy politics, and I enjoy economics coincidently I rarely enjoy the company of women. No all jokes, my sweetheart has simply learned to ignore me almost all the time.

As for the comparison with Antony Green, I wish. There is a man you could have an interesting debate with.

 

[Rusty]

A key indicator to how the election is going is following where the leaders spend their time. Note : Both leaders have made multiple trips to cairns this week, to the seat of Leichardt.

To lose this seat Labor would have to suffer a swing of 4.1%, a swing if replicated across the board would see the coalition sweep into power. Either both leaders are reading local polls that make the seat seem more competitive then my research show it to be or the ALP are very very worried about QLD.

As to the situation in VIC and SA, There are 5 seats in contention in VIC, two of them held by each party and the last the seat of Melbourne which may fall to the greens. I personally feel the incumbents will win all 4 seats as politics in VIC have long been a whole lot less fluid then elsewhere in the country, that said I wouldn't be surprised if one or two went either way.

As to SA, I honestly don't see the Libs losing any seats here at all regardless of what some might be saying. They hold only 5 of the 11 SA seats in anycase (Barker, Grey, Boothby, Mayo and Sturt). Mayo, Grey and Barker are safe. That leaves Boothby and Sturt. With a 2.9% swing required in Boothby we are looking at the edge of possible gains if Labor were to perform exceptionally well, put it this way if Labor wins Boothby they will have won this election convincingly and we will know it before the polls even close in SA. The last is Sturt and while Labor would seriously love to unseat Christopher Pyne, I really highly doubt they will succeed. He is benefited by having his media profile hugely inflated since the last election and this time around does not have to battle with a protest vote linked to his close ties with the Howard machine. Expect Pyne to win and be promoted in a Abbott cabinet, or for that matter a shadow cabinet. If the coalitions loses he may well be a candidate for the leadership sometime in the future.

Likewise if the coalition win seats in SA I suspect we will see Tony Abbott on stage thanking his family before the seats are declared. While I think a few seats are possibilities they all fall at the edge of likely gains and should I suspect be evidence of a swing rather then aberrant results.

The seat of Bass in TAS has taken my interest this week with an odd dynamic appearing that brings it into play. Due to the nature of the TAS state electoral system we may be due for an anti-greens backlash in the states seats. At the last state election Labor suffered a significant humiliation yet has retained power in a hung parliament with Greens support, this is despite the popular opinion being that the coalition should have had the right to govern. Greens may suffer a lower vote in the Apple Isle due to the fact that down there they are a major force and subsequently not as different from the other two partys as they are on the mainland. What this does to their base vote and subsequently their preference flow remains to be seen. As a third party has been sucked into positions of real power in Australian politics they have tended to have their allure eroded. (Exhibit A: Democrats)

Labor can not hope to make any further gains in TAS, ACT or NT because they hold all the seats in these states.

In summary, I think this will be an election based around QLD, WA, NSW and a handfull of seats across the rest of the county. (One in TAS, one in the NT a select few in VIC and SA.)

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Living in QLD we are being BOMBARDED with advertising and leader visits...just as much as this state was largely responsible for Kevin07 swinging into power, it could largely be responsible for Labour losing the 2010 election.

Front page of the Bronco Mail today has KDudd with the following

KEVIN 10

He's back!!

And he's here to help!!


This is hilarious, turn up the sound, click on the link and enjoy

http://media.brisbanetimes.com.au/kevin-rudd-will-survive-1753521.html?from=newsbox


But there's no doubt they are desperate in QLD and with Anna Bligh really on the nose up here (yes I know she's state and this is federal but the average Joe doesn't know the difference) I smell a big move afoot in the north.

NSW could be similar, and WA is ripe for the picking (all on the back of the mining issue)

A "long" way to go but this is going to be one very close election.

 

[The Gronk]

One thing not being factored in is the sophomore surge effect. 

This is where someone who won a marginal seat at the last election tends to do better than expected at the next election.  This is a result of them now being the local member rather than the opponent, and all the advantages that come with incumbency. 

So basically with seats the ALP picked up in 2007, there may be a better than expected result in these seats in 2010 - they might hang on against a swing if there is one. 

To me it looks like QLD and NSW might swing liberal, but a lot of the rest of the country looks like going the other way.  Labor has an 18 point lead in Victoria according to newspoll. 

 

[Fro]

As for the comparison with Antony Green, I wish. There is a man you could have an interesting debate with.

Hes a nice bloke too, I've met him a couple of times.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

One thing not being factored in is the sophomore surge effect. 

This is where someone who won a marginal seat at the last election tends to do better than expected at the next election.  This is a result of them now being the local member rather than the opponent, and all the advantages that come with incumbency. 

So basically with seats the ALP picked up in 2007, there may be a better than expected result in these seats in 2010 - they might hang on against a swing if there is one. 

To me it looks like QLD and NSW might swing liberal, but a lot of the rest of the country looks like going the other way.  Labor has an 18 point lead in Victoria according to newspoll. 

It's amazing isn't it that one part of the country can be so one way and the other part the other way...to me it suggest that state politics are playing a BIG part in all of this

 

[The Gronk]

[quote author=The Gronk link=topic=184174.msg281947#msg281947 date=1281058915]
One thing not being factored in is the sophomore surge effect. 

This is where someone who won a marginal seat at the last election tends to do better than expected at the next election.  This is a result of them now being the local member rather than the opponent, and all the advantages that come with incumbency. 

So basically with seats the ALP picked up in 2007, there may be a better than expected result in these seats in 2010 - they might hang on against a swing if there is one. 

To me it looks like QLD and NSW might swing liberal, but a lot of the rest of the country looks like going the other way.  Labor has an 18 point lead in Victoria according to newspoll. 

It's amazing isn't it that one part of the country can be so one way and the other part the other way...to me it suggest that state politics are playing a BIG part in all of this
[/quote]

Nah state politics have never played a big part so why would they now.  Lets not forget Howard was PM at a time where every state was labor, and that never seemed to matter. 

I used to live in a seat where there was a 30% difference between state and federal votes, and a change of party.

I just think its because of all the bogans in QLD - they were pissed off with Kevin, Kevin goes, and now they are pissed off that he isn't there!!

 

[Rusty]

One thing not being factored in is the sophomore surge effect. 

This is where someone who won a marginal seat at the last election tends to do better than expected at the next election.  This is a result of them now being the local member rather than the opponent, and all the advantages that come with incumbency. 

So basically with seats the ALP picked up in 2007, there may be a better than expected result in these seats in 2010 - they might hang on against a swing if there is one. 

To me it looks like QLD and NSW might swing liberal, but a lot of the rest of the country looks like going the other way.  Labor has an 18 point lead in Victoria according to newspoll. 

You may well be right on both points. We will see, as to the polling else where, my point is that aside from two seats in VIC there are no seats in the rest of Australia for Labor to pick up, none in the NT, zero in TAS, zero in ACT and no real targets in SA.

BTW the Advertiser in SA ran a front page article today basically based around what I said about Pyne yesterday.

With the sophomore effect, the reason I don't know that it will be particularly evident is that in the top 10 Lib target seats, 4 are currently Lib held and only notionally Labor after redistributions and 4 have no sitting member standing as Labor figures have retired.

State politics will play, the reason we didn't see the effect at previous elections was Labor ran an effective 'eggs in two baskets' message. And because due to good economic times during both state and federal elections there was little inclination to kick either side out. I don't think it will be a decisive issue but it is worth noting that the Labor governments in NSW and QLD are the most disliked, the most inefficient and these states are where Labor is suffering.

I don't think it is as subtle as voters not knowing the difference, although I am sure some do not, but a lot of factors play.

1. A popular state government can campaign for a federal party, offering support, joint appearances and free media coverage. Likewise an unpopular state government can not.

2. It is much harder to get media, especially local media onside in a state with poor state government by the same party.

3. When people feel disgruntled they tend to vote protest, regardless of who is responsible. This will be especially true in NSW where people have not had the chance to vote for so long.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Rusty, an interesting story in the Bronco Mail today about the 4 things you should never do coming into an election

1 Disunity is death
2 Don't change leaders in the shodows of an election
3 Give voters a reson to vote for you
3 Shambolic campaigns are not winniung campaigns

And the story goes on to say Labor have a cross against all 4.

A second story has the punters calls (betting wise) on all the marginal seats here in QLD......the punters have picked (with their bets) the LNP to win

Bowman
Dawson
Dickson
Flynn
Herbert
Leichardt
Ryan

And Labor to win

Brisbane
Forde
Longman

It does make QLD a very very interesting state come 6.00pm 21 August