Mark from Brisbane link said:
I'd agree Gronk, some will fall, some will be retained it's never that simple unless there's a uniform swing (and there never is)
The simple thing to remember is Labor (correct spelling by the way) won so many seats in the 2007 election that it's doubtful they'll lose enough this time to change government.
Winning Government back for the L-NP was always going to be a 2 term approach anyway, the fact that we are even saying they have a chance means that Gillard and co are doing a lot worse that we all think.
As I said right at the very start, Labor will win with a greatly reduced margin.....I think they have about 26 seats or something now, I'd estimate they'll probably lose 15 and maybe gain 2 or 3, for say a net loss of 12-13.
The 2013 (or 14) election is when Abbot and Co (if he is still there) will be aiming at, this election is just to reduce the number of seats they have to win in 3-4 years by as many as they can.
This is not true, Labor did not win so many seats at the last election. They only have to lose 11 to lose government which is not a huge hurdle. The major issue which I have stated a number of times is the redistribution, which have not been kind to Labor. Although on paper they have delivered the ALP 5 extra seats in fact they have left them in a terrible position. Many of the seats affected have retiring Labor members or are defended by very strong LIB members who should retain their seats. Labor holds exactly 20 more seats then the coalition, 10 change and we have a hung parliament with the independents in balance of power, and 11 LIBs have the most seats, 13 I think delivers them power in their own right.
And a 2% swing is not a huge ask against a sitting government. Especially if this swing happens in just two states (NSW and QLD) then the coalition will go very very close to winning. These seats falling do not require a uniform swing to happen to do so, they may all fall of local issues, my feeling is that we will see a swing and that the change may be up to 25 -26 seats, but as always I am ready to admit that I am hardly an oracle and people much smarter and much higher paid then me will be getting this wrong.
My point was that each of the seats listed was at risk for individual, unique reasons. I can tell you something for free, I have seen some internal polling from the labor party which puts them on track to lose 10 seats in QLD alone.
The problem for Labor is that 2007 may well represent a high water mark in that they captured most of the coalitions marginals, leaving few at risk. And as to seats changing hands in the other direction, there may I grant you be five at risk.
Bowman (QLD) LIB 0.01%
McEwen (VIC) LIB 0.02%
Hughes (NSW) LIB 0.5%
La Trobe (VIC) LIB 0.5%
Paterson (NSW) LIB 0.6%
The two in VIC possible may fall, I highly doubt Bowman will as the ALP vote in QLD was very very high at the last election compared to nationally and should fall accordingly, and Hughes and Paterson while both at risk have good local members sitting and will be a hard ask for Labor, hard but possible. Above this you have only 1 seat below a 1% swing, which is Sturt (SA), Christopher Pynes seat, his increased public profile and his seniority in the LIB party should see him home in a seat the LIBs are desperate to retain and are spending money like mad to do so.
After that only 5 more seats sit in the 1 - 2% category, with two in WA which polls show is going to swing quite heavily against the government, two national seats, Nationals have historically been very hard to unseat when they are not in government and one seat that may be at risk, Ryan (QLD). Due to a conservative independent running Labor may sneak home here if they are lucky.
