Andrew Johns: Can’t win the NRL title outside the top four? If it’s ever going to happen, Manly is the team

rj90

Yeah, Nah.
Tipping Member
To win an NRL title, it takes so much hard work and sacrifice from everyone involved in a club – but you also need luck. And on that score, the Roosters have run out of it.

I couldn’t believe what I was watching on Sunday when Sam Walker and Brandon Smith both went down with serious knee injuries, later diagnosed as ACL tears, and Victor Radley succumbed to a fractured shoulder.

They have no chance of winning the competition now, and I would even argue they’re a chance of bombing out of the finals in straight sets.

That might sound harsh, but I’m just not sure how the Roosters will attack now they’ve lost the flair of Walker, the ball playing skills of Radley and Smith’s running game. That’s no fault of their own, injuries can happen at any time. Unfortunately for them, they’ve copped rotten luck when they least needed it.

They will want to make a statement against South Sydney on Friday night, and I can see them getting the two points … just. But I’m not expecting them to mount a serious title charge with their injury list.

So, what about the other premiership threats? There are just so many questions about the teams in the top four at the moment.

In the past three weeks, Penrith have looked a little bit flat. I suspect they’re the only top four-team capable of beating the Storm. But if Nathan Cleary can’t stay on the field in the finals, then I’m writing off their chances too.

The Sharks? The jury is still out on whether they’re capable of winning the big games. When it comes to clinching the title, I can’t have them.

History will show you have to be in the top four to win a competition, but maybe this is the year when the trend is bucked. Outside the Storm – who are benefiting from Cameron Munster missing the State of Origin series – the other top-four teams all have major frailties heading into the finals.

That takes me to Manly.

I will preface this by saying they need Tom Trbojevic back on the field. If he can return in week one of the finals and manage the pain in his shoulder, they can do some serious damage in September. They have the big-game players in Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, and they look like they have another gear.

As it stands, I think all roads lead to a Storm-Panthers grand final. But if there’s one team to upset the apple cart, watch out for the Sea Eagles


 
Last thing the Manly players need to hear or see right now.
It's gotta be the old "us against the world" mentallity.
Friendly / positive opinions from ppl we know hate Manly (which is everyone except Manly supporters), creates cpmplacency at exactly the time we need to be absolute ruthless savages, if any chance of winning finals games.
 
When half the comp make the finals there will always be also rans in the finals.
Just remember NRL get all ticket sales from finals.
Go to a top 7. Top team gets first week off.
 
We are a chance, but the Storm are going to be very hard to beat. The only real chance we have is if whoever finishes 4th bashes the absolute hell out of them in week 1 and leave them significantly down on troops.

If we face them at full strength we'd need to play a perfect game to beat them.
 
If we had secured the 5 points we lost against Tigers, Warriors, and Raiders that would have had us in equal 2nd position and everybody would have been talking us up for the premiership.

Andrew John has got footy brains he can see what this team is capable of.
 
If - for arguments sake - we had a 50% chance of winning the next game, and we won that and then had 50% chance in the next game, and won that, etc etc... we'd end up in the grand final with a 50% chance of winning.
However... (!!!) starting from now the chance of winning 5 games in a row (if we were a 50% chance in all of them) is ............ 3.125%. 😱
(Gamble responsibly!)

ps I'm no mathematician so if that's wrong I apologise in advance

Calculate Episode 18 GIF by The Simpsons
 
I dont think the Storm this year are as good of a team as many are making out.

Dont get me wrong, they are good, but I think they stand out slightly, mainly because there are no standout teams this year.

They are favourites but I think any of the top 7 could beat them on their day.
 
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I give Manly a big chance of getting to the final or grand final, but only if they win this week and get the boost of a home final.

Manly has beaten both the Cows and Dogs at their home stadiums this year. I just can't see it happening twice in the one season, especially with even bigger home crowds screaming all game at the referee, meaning Manly would be over and done in the first semi.

Hope I'm wrong though.
 
These sorts of articles seems to always pop up about Manly ever year. Not necessarily that we're a dark horse for the premiership, but at the very least, we are dark horse to make a run for the finals or the top 4. Usually, the week after an article like this surfaces, we plummet and NRL360 go to town on us. I hope this isn't one of those occasions. I have a feeling the Turbo/DCE factor frightens the judges, hence the ongoing illusion.
 
Joey's been on the lollies again 🥴🤪
If we beat the Sharks on Sunday and if the Dolphins don't proceed, then we'll have won against every other team in the Top 8 this season... which is more impressive than 2021 when we made it to finals week 3 having only won against 2/7 other teams (who finished 6th and 8th) that made it to the finals during the regular season.

Not saying we'll do it, but there have been less favoured teams who have made it to the GF in the last 10 years.
 
I
If - for arguments sake - we had a 50% chance of winning the next game, and we won that and then had 50% chance in the next game, and won that, etc etc... we'd end up in the grand final with a 50% chance of winning.
However... (!!!) starting from now the chance of winning 5 games in a row (if we were a 50% chance in all of them) is ............ 3.125%. 😱
(Gamble responsibly!)

ps I'm no mathematician so if that's wrong I apologise in advance

Calculate Episode 18 GIF by The Simpsons
I was following you all the way up to "arguments sake" 😂
 
If - for arguments sake - we had a 50% chance of winning the next game, and we won that and then had 50% chance in the next game, and won that, etc etc... we'd end up in the grand final with a 50% chance of winning.
However... (!!!) starting from now the chance of winning 5 games in a row (if we were a 50% chance in all of them) is ............ 3.125%. 😱
(Gamble responsibly!)

ps I'm no mathematician so if that's wrong I apologise in advance

Calculate Episode 18 GIF by The Simpsons
Yes but that is also true for every other side other than the teams that win in week 1. Theirs would be 6.25% if you include this round.
 
If we beat the Sharks on Sunday and if the Dolphins don't proceed, then we'll have won against every other team in the Top 8 this season... which is more impressive than 2021 when we made it to finals week 3 having only won against 2/7 other teams (who finished 6th and 8th) that made it to the finals during the regular season.

Not saying we'll do it, but there have been less favoured teams who have made it to the GF in the last 10 years.
I'm more confident this year than I was in 2021 for exactly this reason. In 2021 Girdler had us pegged when he called us flat track bullies. We could rack up huge scores, largely thanks to the form Turbo was in, when the opposition was inferior. But when the opposition pack put us to the test we absolutely wilted and it nullified all the strike power.

This time our pack can actually go toe to toe with those top sides. We just need to actually do it.
 

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