Berkeley_Eagle
Current Status: 24/7 Manly Fan
Phil Gould
Five rounds to go. Which team do you like to win the NRL competition? Why? Is your heart ruling your head? Or have you drilled down into the science of it all and produced an educated opinion?
What are the most important factors in winning a premiership? I would say the overall quality of your player roster is obviously number one. I've worked out what I think might be the strongest possible line-ups for each of the four teams and broken them down into the four key areas - the spine, the three-quarters, the back-rowers and the front-rowers. I'm not the coach, so this is just my opinion. However, we get the general idea of just how formidable these teams could be at their best.
I've left Jason King and Joe Galuvao out of the Manly line-up as they won't return this season but the Storm's Jason Ryles, Junior Moors and Gareth Widdop, Roosters forward Martin Kennedy and Sea Eagles back-rower Tom Symonds are likely to return for the finals. I know David Tyrell was left out for Tom Burgess last week for the Rabbits but I'm sure he'll take his place in their line-up soon at Tom Burgess' expense. But if you look at the make-up of these four teams, you can see just how strong they have become.
This year's playoff series could well be the most bruising, compelling and entertaining month of football we have witnessed in years. I know you've heard all this before, however, if all the teams arrive at September with their full roster of players available, the action should be simply outstanding.
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It was quite obvious after only one month that the top four teams in the competition had a fair bit on the rest of their rivals. Now everyone is screaming it from the rooftops.
Even within the top four teams at the moment, there has developed something of a divide with the Rabbits and Roosters opening up a healthy gap on the Sea Eagles and the Storm. But there is now no doubt in anyone's mind that these top four teams have it over the rest of the field.
Who do you favour? In order, I like the Roosters, Rabbits, Sea Eagles then Storm.
Defence wins premierships. Since the 2006 season, the premiership-winning team each year has ranked first or second in defence for the season.
So far after 20 rounds in 2013 the defence records (points conceded) read this way: Roosters (11.6), Rabbitohs (14.2), Sea Eagles (14.3), Storm (16.5).
While Manly rank third in points conceded per game, they only rank eighth in missed tackles conceded. Their defensive line of late is giving up opportunities. This could come back to hurt them in the big games against the top teams.
Incredibly, the Roosters have the best defensive record although they concede the most penalties. That is an amazing statistic. The worst discipline and the best defensive record don't generally go hand in hand.
I think the key to defence in big games is how much defence you are forced to do and what part of the field you are regularly defending. Where and when you give the ball to your opposition is vitally important. This comes down to how well you control your time in possession and limiting your turnovers.
If we look at handling errors committed within your own 40m zone, we see the Storm are easily the most disciplined of all of the top four, with 21 errors so far this season. The Roosters have made 28 errors in this zone and Manly 32. The Rabbits rank 15th in the NRL in this category with 40 errors. Wow! That could come back to bite them.
What I have noticed about the Roosters recently is just how effectively they are advancing the ball up-field through their tremendous forward pack. They don't have to effect many clearing kicks because no matter where their set of six starts, they are invariably in position for an attacking kick like a high bomb by tackle five. This is placing tremendous pressure on their opponents.
Kicking game? This includes the whole range of kicks and the ability of the team to compliment the kicks with effective kick chase. I see a lot of players practising their kicking games; I don't see enough players practicing their chasing games. Kicks to relieve pressure, 40/20 option, accuracy of bombs, cross-field kicks and grubber kicks, forcing line drop-outs, field goal exponent - they all matter.
Which team has the best overall kicking game? Again, I like Melbourne. Cooper Cronk is so accurate and reliable. The left foot of Cameron Smith is such a great combination to Cronk as well.
Adam Reynolds is developing nicely. However, he is unproven at the back end of the season. This is his chance to rise to the occasion.
The Sea Eagles and Roosters tend not to rely on conventional attacking kicking games. They back themselves to run in the points.
Of course, the defence to your opponent's kicking game is another big factor. Mostly you want all your opponent's kicks to be clearing kicks from their own end of the field. You need to pressure the kickers to put them off their game, which is very difficult these days because if a defender as much as breathes on a kicker, the referee blows a penalty. It's utterly ridiculous.
I like the Storm's ability to contend with their opposition's kicking game. Their back three are all very safe under the high ball.
I rank leadership and experience in big matches highly when considering a team's title credentials. This includes the coach. The Storm leadership and coaching group have the runs on the board. They won't be intimidated by big-match football.
The old adage that forwards win big games is still valid. Which forward pack do you like? I love the Roosters' front-row rotation. I also think they have the best attacking back rowers. Boyd Cordner and Mitch Aubusson are line breakers. And then of course we have the great Sonny Bill Williams.
Souths have the artillery to match them on their day. They are big and powerful. The Burgess brothers are incredible. I love the skill factor Manly's Glenn Stewart provides.
The Storm forwards are tradesmen-like. Ryan Hoffman provides punch but doesn't possess great footwork. Teams will need creativity so we look to the spine combination of 9, 7, 6 and 1. I guess most would agree the Storm have the big-match players in this category. The three big names - Smith, Cronk and Slater - have produced under pressure for club, state and country.
A really good statistic I like to compare is how many touches inside the opposition 20m zone a team needs for its playmakers to produce a try. Again the top four teams rank in the top five in this part of the game. Interestingly, the Warriors rate highly in this regard as well.
The ability to produce points from close range when you need them most comes down to composure, confidence, structure and execution. The Roosters again rank number one: Roosters (19.8), Souths (20.9), Warriors (21), Storm (21.5), Sea Eagles (23.3), Knights (23.7), Bulldogs (24.4).
We also know penalties can turn a game, especially when you invite your opponent into attacking zone via your own indiscretion. I often look at the teams who turn penalty opportunities into tries. It shows which teams operate best from set restarts where they can execute rehearsed plays. Rabbits, Manly and Roosters rank in the top four. Surprisingly, the Storm rank 14th in this category.
The amount of tries scored by teams this season after receiving a penalty: Souths (22), Sea Eagles (20), Cowboys (19), Roosters (19), Bulldogs (18), Broncos (15), Warriors (14).
Speed? You must have speed. Everyone needs speed. The top four teams all have speed. However, at the pointy end of the season, your outside backs need to also have grunt and experience. I lean towards the Sea Eagles a little here, particularly the experience of Jamie Lyon and Steve Matai in the centres. They are big-show performers.
So what do you notice most about my conclusions? South Sydney don't rank number one in any of the categories I have listed. Yet they are leading the competition! Go figure.
Maybe the Rabbits are just the best team! I haven't got a statistic to support that theory. Maybe in the end it will come down to that team mentality and chemistry. Maybe it will just come down to heart and desire. Which team ranks first in these bare essentials?
Like they say, big matches come down to big plays and the big moments. Which player gets there first? Only time will tell. It should be great. Good luck to all teams.
Twitter: @gusgould91
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/tough-to-split-four-giants-in-final-race-20130803-2r66k.html#ixzz2axVxBAR5
