Am I still a crazy optimist?
Top 4
- Thread starter Not Paul Kent
- Start date
Brisbane Tragic
Bencher
That loss to the Knights now is very very significant and will be for the rest of the year. A team we should have absolutely lapped that day.
The Who
Journey Man
We are a chance.
IMO the top three are locked in: Melbourne, Penrith and Souffs. (I've dismissed Easts because of their poor recent form)
We need to beat Doesn'tmatta to the final spot. They are two wins clear and have a 70-point differential advantage.
However, we have a far easier draw home.
We all know upsets can occur, but on current form:
We play two top sides: Melbourne and Doesn'tmatta.
Parramatta plays five top sides: Penrith, Melbourne, Manly, Easts and Souths.
So what we need is for Doesn'tmatta to lose three more matches than we do; or possibly two more matches provided we can overtake the 70-point differential...
You never know.
IMO the top three are locked in: Melbourne, Penrith and Souffs. (I've dismissed Easts because of their poor recent form)
We need to beat Doesn'tmatta to the final spot. They are two wins clear and have a 70-point differential advantage.
However, we have a far easier draw home.
We all know upsets can occur, but on current form:
We play two top sides: Melbourne and Doesn'tmatta.
Parramatta plays five top sides: Penrith, Melbourne, Manly, Easts and Souths.
So what we need is for Doesn'tmatta to lose three more matches than we do; or possibly two more matches provided we can overtake the 70-point differential...
You never know.
ManlyTragic
Bencher
I reckon if we beat parramatta we will make top 4
IQofalimabean
Bencher
I think the eels will lose to rabbitohs, storm, penrith, and eagles. Parramatta should finish on 34 points.
Manly will finish on 38 points if we dont drop a game, we can afford to lose 2 games as long as they are not against the eels. But if we do lose 2 then it will come down to points differential and i reckon we will over take them putting us in 4th.
Manly will finish on 38 points if we dont drop a game, we can afford to lose 2 games as long as they are not against the eels. But if we do lose 2 then it will come down to points differential and i reckon we will over take them putting us in 4th.
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Neither Souths nor Eels are a top 4 lock just yet.
There's an awful long way to go, should be a hell of a ride!
There's an awful long way to go, should be a hell of a ride!
ManlyTragic
Bencher
We play parra at home … that makes up 2 points! They will definitely lose another game! The way we are scoring the For and against will not be a problem particularly if we beat parra comfortably at home!
That canberra premiership window sure slammed shut hard and fast.
But yup, a long way to go... injuries, footy gods, vlandy rule changes, blonks...etc.
But yup, a long way to go... injuries, footy gods, vlandy rule changes, blonks...etc.
That game could well make us or break us...
Injuries and discipline and maybe a little luck will be crucial to our top 4 chances but in any case the next couple of months, as SER8 says, should be a wonderful ride!
I thought it was quite unusual - and therefore certainly deliberate - that Des referred in the presser to boosting our for and against and chasing top 4. Just to plant a little extra pressure and doubt in some of those outfits that are still well ahead of us.
With so many rounds left to play it's almost certain that at least one of those 4 will falter at some stage. Des getting in early with some mind games!
By the way - speaking of the presser - anyone know what the ELMO badge is that he's been wearing?
With so many rounds left to play it's almost certain that at least one of those 4 will falter at some stage. Des getting in early with some mind games!
By the way - speaking of the presser - anyone know what the ELMO badge is that he's been wearing?
Scorpio
Armchair Expert
They make HR software
SeaEagle21
Bencher
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ELMO are an HR tech company based out of Sydney. I almost took up a job with them at the start of the year, but didn't want to work in an office fulltime and had a job for more money lined up. Had to make the decision of positions vs salary and earning potential.
Still they are a great business and have a really great crew of people working with them that I have known for years, seeing them sponsoring Manly makes me think maybe I should have gone with them over where I am now.
Currently we sit on 20 points with 9 games to go.
The Reality - Parra: 24 with a bye to come, and Souths: 26.
If we drop 2 games, manly finish on 34 points. Either Parra or Souths would have to lose 4 games. Aside from having to play Panthers (cleary not a certainty for that game), and assuming they beat parra and rorters, souths are pretty much a lock for top 4.
Parra, on the other hand, is far more likely to lose 4 games (yet this still would be unlikely given their form). They would have to lose to souths, manly (a must!), storm, and panthers. Personally, I have them winning 2 of these games, and manly will do extremely well to only drop 2.
5th place would be a great result, and would almost ensure us to go 1 game further than we did in 2019, but I predict we will probably just fall short of the GF. Oh how I hope I'm wrong...
Go Manly
The Reality - Parra: 24 with a bye to come, and Souths: 26.
If we drop 2 games, manly finish on 34 points. Either Parra or Souths would have to lose 4 games. Aside from having to play Panthers (cleary not a certainty for that game), and assuming they beat parra and rorters, souths are pretty much a lock for top 4.
Parra, on the other hand, is far more likely to lose 4 games (yet this still would be unlikely given their form). They would have to lose to souths, manly (a must!), storm, and panthers. Personally, I have them winning 2 of these games, and manly will do extremely well to only drop 2.
5th place would be a great result, and would almost ensure us to go 1 game further than we did in 2019, but I predict we will probably just fall short of the GF. Oh how I hope I'm wrong...
Go Manly
TagMonster
Reserve Grader
I honestly think 5th would be a good spot. We push into 4th and we likely play Storm in Melbourne. That's hard as your first finals Game. Otherwise, we go 5th, we play 8th at Brookie. There is no team below us that scares me. We win that and then play the loser of 2nd/3rd (Likely the loser of Penrith and South's). I figure that means a game against South in Sydney. I'm confident in that one. Then we would likely play either Penrith to get into the GF. Finishing 4th gets us nothing other than the slight chance of a week off but I'm not a big believer in the benifits of the week off. With Turbo firing and the form the boys are in I don't doubt we can roll a big team to get into the GF.
Too soon to start counting our chickens but I am overjoyed at where we currently sit after the first 4 rounds. The next two games are critical and we needs wins against both the Raiders and St Merge and I don't expect either to an easy game.
To be honest the only team that looks a certainty for a top 4 finish now is Melbourne. Parramatta are very beatable and Souths showed in their second half against the Tigers where their vulnerabilities are. Panthers have just lost their halves for a time so they might drop a few. We may be able to climb a fair bit yet.
Pretty sure we won’t be playing at Brookie.
restrictions this year have had capacity at around 7,500 and even if those restrictions are removed, capacity is only 11k.
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