The top two ( and the rest of us).

You can sometimes see a dominant team get stale by the finals. Manly in 83, 95 and 97. Also roosters in 2003 and 2004.
 
Batty said:
Moral of the story is I’d take 15/21 odds over your 6 any day. History is a good predictor of the future -
Click to expand...
What are you talking about, what is 15/21?

The thread is about how it's a 2 horse race and I pointed out only 2 times in the last 21 years have the 2 leading teams at Round 8 both made the GF (and in 2007 Storm was cheating, so you could argue it only happened once, legally).

So if "history is a good predictor" as you say... doesn't that suggest that there is every chance that either Storm or Panthers will be absent on GF day, and instead some other team will be lining up for a shot at glory?
 
SeaEagleRock8 said:
What are you talking about, what is 15/21?

The thread is about how it's a 2 horse race and I pointed out only 2 times in the last 21 years have the 2 leading teams at Round 8 both made the GF (and in 2007 Storm was cheating, so you could argue it only happened once, legally).

So if "history is a good predictor" as you say... doesn't that suggest that there is every chance that either Storm or Panthers will be absent on GF day, and instead some other team will be lining up for a shot at glory?
Click to expand...
Unless something goes drastically wrong it will be a panthers storm final. I cant see any other team really competing with them at the moment.
 
Just watched the Storm Knights game. One thing I notice is regardless of the score, the Storm don't change.

1. In attack, their players rarely get rolled on their backs (something we consistently seem to happen) in tackles. This always presents them with fast play-the-balls.

2. They stand much deeper in attack than us. We tend to play flat, and make flat passes to slowish momentum players.

3. From minute one, to minute 80, the are intense and everything is done at speed.

4. Their play-the-ball speed is literally twice as quick as ours, and they get a roll on. This has been a problem of ours for years.

5. Their defense stays wide but rushes every tackle from minute one to minute 80. We play a compressed defense and slide. The issue is our wide fellas aren't the best defenders, which leads to the arm grabs. Particularly given our defensive line is generally immobile (they don't rush forward).

6. They put pressure on their opposition kickers and half in tackles 5. We tend to give them time and space. This is all effort areas. A little system too.

Honestly, the difference for mine is energy and intensity. I see some of our players doing slow play-the-balls in the first minute of the game. That's not good enough.

Given our flat attack, it gives our halves less time and space, meaning their first instinct is to run sidewards, through fear of getting belted !

Anyways, some things I picked up
 
The Storm are just so well-drilled it's ridiculous.

Something I've noticed via playing supercoach is that their big 4 take turns at having big games.

So one week Papenhuyzen will have a huge game while Grant, Hughes & Munster will have quieter games. The next week Grant will have a huge game while the others have quieter games, & so on.

Bellamy has several different game plans that he seems to rotate, that all revolve around one of the big 4 while their forwards always do their job well & their backs always finish off plays well.

They are a frighteningly well-oiled machine.
 
Ryan said:
Just watched the Storm Knights game. One thing I notice is regardless of the score, the Storm don't change.

1. In attack, their players rarely get rolled on their backs (something we consistently seem to happen) in tackles. This always presents them with fast play-the-balls.

2. They stand much deeper in attack than us. We tend to play flat, and make flat passes to slowish momentum players.

3. From minute one, to minute 80, the are intense and everything is done at speed.

4. Their play-the-ball speed is literally twice as quick as ours, and they get a roll on. This has been a problem of ours for years.

5. Their defense stays wide but rushes every tackle from minute one to minute 80. We play a compressed defense and slide. The issue is our wide fellas aren't the best defenders, which leads to the arm grabs. Particularly given our defensive line is generally immobile (they don't rush forward).

6. They put pressure on their opposition kickers and half in tackles 5. We tend to give them time and space. This is all effort areas. A little system too.

Honestly, the difference for mine is energy and intensity. I see some of our players doing slow play-the-balls in the first minute of the game. That's not good enough.

Given our flat attack, it gives our halves less time and space, meaning their first instinct is to run sidewards, through fear of getting belted !

Anyways, some things I picked up
Click to expand...
The Panfers are pretty much the same , their line speed in defence is unbelievable really!!
 
Batty said:
Didn’t think it was hard to understand - you said yourself - of 15 of the last 21 seasons, the team that won the GF was in the top 2 by round 8.
Click to expand...
Lol, I agree it is not hard to understand but somehow you have managed to do that!
I did not say in 15 of the last 21 seasons the GF winner was top 2 at R 8.
This is what I said:
SeaEagleRock8 said:
2001 to 2021 shows:

  • In 13/21 one of the 2 leading teams at R 8 made the GF
  • In 6/21 neither of the 2 leading teams at R 8 made the GF
  • In only 2/21 did both leading teams at R 8 made the GF - and one of those was *asterisked out of existence for being cheating scum (2007) (the other year was 2004)
The moral of this story - it's a long season, it aint over yet
Click to expand...
In fact ... only six (6) premiers out of 21 seasons were running top 2 at R 8.

Which is merely a historical fact, doesn't mean Panthers and Storm are unlikely to win this year.

However you are the one saying history says they will fight out the GF! So I merely point out that history shows that more often than not the 2 leaders at R 8 do NOT play the GF (only twice in 21 years, and one of those has an asterisk)
And now that you mention GF winners - only 6 in 21 years were running top 2 as of R 8.

So, like I say - It's a long season and it aint over yet 🙂

edit - I'll amend that to 6 out of 20 because of the asterisk on 2007
 
Whatever. You threw up a random stat to assert that 'history proves' something, I merely responded by showing some other stats that show the leaders at R 8 are not all that conclusive when it comes to who makes the big dance. Far from it.

Then when you twisted what I said so I added the stats for GF winners - which also do not support your assertion.

None of which by the way means I don't think Panthers and Storm are the teams to beat. I agree they are.

However my point is it is a long season, a lot can happen to upset the apple cart ... and more often than not, something does!

Batty said:
We are well off competing with the likes of the Storm and Panthers… history proves it.
Click to expand...
 
There’s no way we would make this years GF.

The top 2 are absolutely consistent.

We are absolutely inconsistent.

We very rarely do well against sides above us on the ladder , the game v the Eels the day after Bozo passed away was one we did.

But in two seasons that’s about it ( I’m not counting the Roosters in last year’s Preliminary as they were decimated by injury.

In fact it’s injury as the only reason the top 2 won’t be there , they are light years ahead of every other team.
 
Mark from Brisbane said:
There’s no way we would make this years GF.

The top 2 are absolutely consistent.

We are absolutely inconsistent.

We very rarely do well against sides above us on the ladder , the game v the Eels the day after Bozo passed away was one we did.

But in two seasons that’s about it ( I’m not counting the Roosters in last year’s Preliminary as they were decimated by injury.

In fact it’s injury as the only reason the top 2 won’t be there , they are light years ahead of every other team.
Click to expand...
Well let's hope for some well placed hip drops, crushers and chicken wings over the next few months then. A few Hammies, pulled calf, ACLs, MCL's ,rotor cuffs, AC shoulder joints and Pec tears will do the trick.
 
I’ve just read this thread from start to finish.

Interesting that back then we were all thinking we were a top 3-8 side and where we ended up.

Injuries really killed our year and a lack of a consistent side on the park weekly.

We all thought Melbourne were so great until they lose Paps and a coupe of others. Then their season went like ours where they looked average.

Losing Tom and having a different side every week didn’t help 2022.

With a fit side next year I think we will be back in contention. No need for all the crazy “sky is falling” sack the coach, sack the captain, sack half the squad.
 
Lyonstomenzies said:
I’ve just read this thread from start to finish.
Click to expand...
Penrith if anything look stronger now than they did back in Round 8.
However I would say that predictions at such an early stage have been shown once again to be unreliable.
Far too many things can occur to upset a team's apple cart, and Storm is just another example.
 
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