Very deep thinking post and great effort feathered friend . A lot you say makes sense but IMO good players and good teams make their own luck . The best coach with the most dominant 30 man squad will always be competitive and challenge for the titlePut aside your concerns (in the words of BOZO) feathered friend.
What happened to Manly this year has befallen many teams that make part of a growing list. You could see early on in the year already that defences were falling apart:
First to fall apart were the Broncos and Bulldogs (who I note play a Manly style game), and the Tigers. Then came Manly. These teams started to leak an average of 30+ points a week. I note the others down there (Saints and Nth Qld) were always ****.
Then came some of the fringe eight teams - Newcastle, Cronulla - started leaking some big scores. Then last of all the Roosters and Parra - big leaks baby. That strong early year defence became swiss cheese.
Parallel to this injuries all over the place - particularly leg injuries.
There is only so much teams designed for pre-2020 rugby league can take, and many are falling. Look at some of the scores in the finals series - seems an average of 70 points a game are being scored.
In the end we have four surviving teams, and they are long developed teams with the most structured defence and attack, and not based on brawn and sparkle. It just happened to end up that way.
I think the NRL have opened the tap a little too far based on the injuries we are seeing. It will be interesting to see what happens over the off-season. But either way this is a massive transition in the game, and the next couple of years are going to be an absolute lottery in terms who who wins the comp. The Manly club have to make some big changes in they way they play, the type of player they recruit, and have a sprinkle of luck.
Interesting times ahead, but the pre-2020 Manly will be no more.
NYEagle