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TAB's 2021 . Ladder predictions ..

Woodsie

Feast yer eyes ..
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
12,225
Many say that the money is rarely wrong ... the following are the betting odds from the Tab for the most number of losses ... so the inverse can be applied ... and conclude that it also predicts ladder positions .. eg most wins would win the comp ..

Betting odds for most losses in reverse order are : In brackets are the odds they gave for last season .. 2020

Penrith $101.00 ($41.00)
Roosters $67.00 ($81.00)
Souff's $51.00 ($51.00)
Melb $51.00 ($151.00)
Raiders $41.00 ($101.00)
Parra $34.00 ($101.00)
Manly $26.00 ($67.00)
Titans $26.00 ($3.50)
Newcastle $21.00 ($26.00)
Warriors $13.00 ($3.75)
Nth Qld $13.00 ($34.00)
Sharks $13.00 ($10.00)
Tigers $11.00 ($10.00)
Saints $5.00 ($8.00)
Broncos $5.00 ($81.00)
Bulldogs $4.00 ($4.00)

Interesting to see who has improved or gone backwards ... Manly have firmed from $67 to $26 ... but that still places us as 6th LEAST likely to have the most losses ...
 

Woodsie

Feast yer eyes ..
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
12,225
Seems like the bookies think he's a fair chance of playing the whole year :)
Yeah ... but you can lay odds that they have a bloke with digit poised beside the button that will drop the price to $1.05 the first time Tommy grabs the back of his leg ...
 

Kevinward777

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Messages
7,308
Yeah ... but you can lay odds that they have a bloke with digit poised beside the button that will drop the price to $1.05 the first time Tommy grabs the back of his leg ...
Yeah, Des might as well just p1ss him off now. The Silvertails brains trust has declared another injury a foregone conclusion.
 

Mataiforerver

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Joined
Mar 16, 2015
Messages
915
Seems like the bookies think he's a fair chance of playing the whole year :)
its more of a perspective of covering for the best case scenario for the bookies.

There really is no gain from the bookmakers perspective to offer non-Turbo Manly odds (say $101 to win the comp) when with Turbo we'd be about a $15 shot. So they put up the $15 shot
 

Mataiforerver

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Joined
Mar 16, 2015
Messages
915
TAB basically has this as the ladder
1 Panthers
2 Roosters
3 Bunnies
4 Storm
5 Raiders
6 Eels
7 Manly
8 Gold Coast
9 Knights
10 Cowboys
11 Warriors
= 12th Sharks
= 12th Tigers
14 Dragons
= spoon Broncos
= spoon Bulldogs

You think Storm are a shoe in for top 4. Gold Coast were my smokey for top 8 although now theyre priced in as slight fav to make the 8 ($1.85)

My spoon tip is the Tigers. They recruit horribly and just have no stars

Bulldogs will be 10th-13th

Broncos Dragons Cowboys battling out the bottom 4. Dragons are putting Hunt to halfback which is a joke (he's a hooker, they need to cut the losses of paying 1.2m for a hooker)

Sharks could drop back, same as eels

Knights who knows

We probably come 4th-6th with Turbo, or 12th without Turbo

Warriors on improve with a gun pack. 8 AFB 9 Egan (should be Lawton) 10 Murdoch-Masila 11 Katoa 12 Harris 13 Tavaga 14 Lawton 15 JTB 16 Sironen 17 Murchie... gun pack, top 8 smokey? CHT, RTS and Nikorima in the spine is pretty good.

Panthers a one year wonder? WIll be interesting to see how they perform and what young guns leave.
 

Woodsie

Feast yer eyes ..
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
12,225
TAB basically has this as the ladder
1 Panthers
2 Roosters
3 Bunnies
4 Storm
5 Raiders
6 Eels
7 Manly
8 Gold Coast
9 Knights
10 Cowboys
11 Warriors
= 12th Sharks
= 12th Tigers
14 Dragons
= spoon Broncos
= spoon Bulldogs

You think Storm are a shoe in for top 4. Gold Coast were my smokey for top 8 although now theyre priced in as slight fav to make the 8 ($1.85)

My spoon tip is the Tigers. They recruit horribly and just have no stars

Bulldogs will be 10th-13th

Broncos Dragons Cowboys battling out the bottom 4. Dragons are putting Hunt to halfback which is a joke (he's a hooker, they need to cut the losses of paying 1.2m for a hooker)

Sharks could drop back, same as eels

Knights who knows

We probably come 4th-6th with Turbo, or 12th without Turbo

Warriors on improve with a gun pack. 8 AFB 9 Egan (should be Lawton) 10 Murdoch-Masila 11 Katoa 12 Harris 13 Tavaga 14 Lawton 15 JTB 16 Sironen 17 Murchie... gun pack, top 8 smokey? CHT, RTS and Nikorima in the spine is pretty good.

Panthers a one year wonder? WIll be interesting to see how they perform and what young guns leave.
You would like to have taken the $81.00 on Bronco's last year ... just shows how quickly and totally a season can turn to shiite ...

Also think Warriors have bulked up and look good ... but they may have spent all their emotional energy last year ... also have a question mark on how the cousins will relate to Nathan Brown ... for some reason I just can't see it ... but they do look scary good ..
 

Blake A

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Sep 15, 2017
Messages
508
You would like to have taken the $81.00 on Bronco's last year ... just shows how quickly and totally a season can turn to shiite ...

Also think Warriors have bulked up and look good ... but they may have spent all their emotional energy last year ... also have a question mark on how the cousins will relate to Nathan Brown ... for some reason I just can't see it ... but they do look scary good ..
โ€˜the cousinsโ€™ ... being a Kiwi, this made me laugh.... haha
 

Mataiforerver

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 16, 2015
Messages
915
You would like to have taken the $81.00 on Bronco's last year ... just shows how quickly and totally a season can turn to shiite ...

Also think Warriors have bulked up and look good ... but they may have spent all their emotional energy last year ... also have a question mark on how the cousins will relate to Nathan Brown ... for some reason I just can't see it ... but they do look scary good ..
Depends where they are located too. Could have a second season in Aus which would be exhausting
 

weev

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Joined
May 21, 2008
Messages
1,670
Yeah ... but you can lay odds that they have a bloke with digit poised beside the button that will drop the price to $1.05 the first time Tommy grabs the back of his leg ...
In the future that will be done with Artificial Intelligence.... Combo of facial recognition grimace, tommy touches hammy, ref raises arm.... equals wooden spoon shorter odds.
 

Woodsie

Feast yer eyes ..
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
12,225
In the future that will be done with Artificial Intelligence.... Combo of facial recognition grimace, tommy touches hammy, ref raises arm.... equals wooden spoon shorter odds.
Sweet Jesu ... when you said artificial intelligence I shat myself .. thought you were talking about GreenTurd ...
 

Bearfax

Grizzly old fart
Joined
Aug 6, 2012
Messages
6,427
My sense, given the team we'll have, unless injuries savage us again, was also that we would make the 8 but in the lower half.
 

Dion Johnson

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Joined
Jun 8, 2019
Messages
566
TAB basically has this as the ladder
1 Panthers
2 Roosters
3 Bunnies
4 Storm
5 Raiders
6 Eels
7 Manly
8 Gold Coast
9 Knights
10 Cowboys
11 Warriors
= 12th Sharks
= 12th Tigers
14 Dragons
= spoon Broncos
= spoon Bulldogs

You think Storm are a shoe in for top 4. Gold Coast were my smokey for top 8 although now theyre priced in as slight fav to make the 8 ($1.85)

My spoon tip is the Tigers. They recruit horribly and just have no stars

Bulldogs will be 10th-13th

Broncos Dragons Cowboys battling out the bottom 4. Dragons are putting Hunt to halfback which is a joke (he's a hooker, they need to cut the losses of paying 1.2m for a hooker)

Sharks could drop back, same as eels

Knights who knows

We probably come 4th-6th with Turbo, or 12th without Turbo

Warriors on improve with a gun pack. 8 AFB 9 Egan (should be Lawton) 10 Murdoch-Masila 11 Katoa 12 Harris 13 Tavaga 14 Lawton 15 JTB 16 Sironen 17 Murchie... gun pack, top 8 smokey? CHT, RTS and Nikorima in the spine is pretty good.

Panthers a one year wonder? WIll be interesting to see how they perform and what young guns leave.
Warriors have two good edge forwards in Katoa and Harris, if their halves can perform they are a good finals prospect. Turner may get a run in the halves and he looks a goodin.

Cowboys are my top for the spoon, Payten will have a tough gig.
 

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Latest posts

2020 Ladder

Team P W D L PD Pts
1 Panthers 20 18 1 1 299 37
2 Storm 20 16 0 4 258 32
3 Eels 20 15 0 5 104 30
4 Roosters 20 14 0 6 230 28
5 Raiders 20 14 0 6 128 28
6 Rabbitohs 20 12 0 8 169 24
7 Knights 20 11 1 8 47 23
8 Sharks 20 10 0 10 0 20
9 Titans 20 9 0 11 -117 18
10 Warriors 20 8 0 12 -115 16
11 Tigers 20 7 0 13 -65 14
12 Dragons 20 7 0 13 -74 14
13 Sea Eagles 20 7 0 13 -134 14
14 Cowboys 20 5 0 15 -152 10
15 Bulldogs 20 3 0 17 -222 6
16 Broncos 20 3 0 17 -356 6
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