Surprising Manly Stats 2016

[Loobs]

Now I'm no quant, but in order to make the analysis more thorough, you'd need to make a few tweaks.

Firstly, you'd have to do something like lopping off each guys best and worst runs as, especially the best, will skew their stats.

Next you'd have to weight every single run against certain factors like which slice of the game it occurred in (ie opening 20 against the oppositions best pack who are fresh, etc) and how many of the oppositions best forwards are out there and also how long they've been out there against how long our forward has been out there. Or whatever. Like I said, I'm no quant so find the correlations and whatever and then work out what I guess their "advanced" metres are or something of that nature.

Otherwise you just extrapolate their base numbers and it doesn't really tell the whole truth.

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Obviously Burgess must be in the team now each week!

 

[Loobs]

That's where American sports got to in order to work out players true values but I think league is still the dark ages of this.

 

[Rex]

Wait. You spent the Easter long weekend doing this in excel haha

Don't be ridiculous Loobs.

(I had to use bl%%dy macros in Word as well to automate the cleaning of weekly NRL data)

 

[Woodsie]

Now I'm no quant, but in order to make the analysis more thorough, you'd need to make a few tweaks.

Firstly, you'd have to do something like lopping off each guys best and worst runs as, especially the best, will skew their stats.

Next you'd have to weight every single run against certain factors like which slice of the game it occurred in (ie opening 20 against the oppositions best pack who are fresh, etc) and how many of the oppositions best forwards are out there and also how long they've been out there against how long our forward has been out there. Or whatever. Like I said, I'm no quant so find the correlations and whatever and then work out what I guess their "advanced" metres are or something of that nature.

Otherwise you just extrapolate their base numbers and it doesn't really tell the whole truth.

Loobs, loobs loobs.

Remember, the facts, regardless of how interesting, are irrelevant. Next thing you know you will point out that the fact that we haven't won a game at Lidcome oval for 30 years is not really a "stat"

(You are correct in pointing out the replacement props are all ahead of the starters.)

 

[HappilyManly]

Why would you though? He still made a tackle bust, a break and ran those metres? Could you imagine Myles doing that? I'm surprised Brown couldn't run one full field and died in the ass. Wheres his endurance? Need more ling distance running methinks.

Umm, Brown's break was in the 77th minute, so no question of his endurance

The stamina that Manly showed near the end, two men down, to hold out a desperate Rorters Team, is truly remarkable

 

[Chip and Chase]

I love how stats can tell what ever story you want them to. Come and talk to me about lussick when you have a decent sample space.

I'll be keen to see this resurrected in round 20 and see what it looks like.

 

[Fluffy]

missed tackles, penalties and errors need to be there as well.

and yes the small sample size will skew things, Lussicks line break is about 40% of his total. He would need to make one every 2nd game to keep this up, if that was the case, awesome

 

[Snake]

So the guys shows some spirit and determination, breaks the line at a crucial stage of the match and all people can say is "take away that line break" etc. The line break wasn't luck, it was a great run and got us up the field in one tackle as opposed 4 or 5.

I noticed we conceded 9 penalties on Saturday night so I guess there are 8 other players that should be in NSW Cup next week?!

 

[manlyfan76]

Myles hasn't been that bad but I agree with your second point.

My only criticism of Myles is how he backs into tackles ( like Kitey did), otherwise he tackles well, and runs reasonable metres.

While Myles has not been terrible you are true about his butt-first hit ups and that allows him to be turtled and the defense win a slow play the ball. For a "marque" signing I'm not impressed yet, however he may lift before origin teams are announced.

 

[Loobs]

So the guys shows some spirit and determination, breaks the line at a crucial stage of the match and all people can say is "take away that line break" etc. The line break wasn't luck, it was a great run and got us up the field in one tackle as opposed 4 or 5.

I noticed we conceded 9 penalties on Saturday night so I guess there are 8 other players that should be in NSW Cup next week?!

No but a trimmed mean is probably a better indicator of their average capabilities.

 

[Rex]

missed tackles, penalties and errors need to be there as well.

and yes the small sample size will skew things, Lussicks line break is about 40% of his total. He would need to make one every 2nd game to keep this up, if that was the case, awesome

Is that true - about the impact of the line break on the stats?

Let's say Lussick's run was 50 metres. Take that run out and his total metres drop from 184 to 134. And he drops from top spot with a rate of 292 metres per full game (metres/fg) - to second top spot (behind Vave) with a rate of 213 metres/fg. i.e. Still pretty impressive without that line break.

What may favour Lussick in these stats is the short time he was on the field. 28 minutes in game 1 and 22 minutes in game four. Easier to be busy - and effective - in shorter spurts. FYI Lussicks rate of metres/fg was 203 in game 1 and 411 in game 4. Game 4 would drop to a rate of 229 metres/fg if the 50 metres for the big run was dropped off. Still impressive running.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Stats mean nothing when you need a whipping boy AND the ever present suggestion of goat photo's!!

 

[Loobs]

Is that true - about the impact of the line break on the stats?

Let's say Lussick's run was 50 metres. Take that run out and his total metres drop from 184 to 134. And he drops from top spot with a rate of 292 metres per full game (metres/fg) - to second top spot (behind Vave) with a rate of 213 metres/fg. i.e. Still pretty impressive without that line break.

What may favour Lussick in these stats is the short time he was on the field. 28 minutes in game 1 and 22 minutes in game four. Easier to be busy - and effective - in shorter spurts. FYI Lussicks rate of metres/fg was 203 in game 1 and 411 in game 4. Game 4 would drop to a rate of 229 metres/fg if the 50 metres for the big run was dropped off. Still impressive running.

Yeah so over a longer stint on field you'd imagine a few shorter runs would bring that down but if Barrett is intending on only using him in short stints as a true impact player, then he'd be doing exactly what is asked. Players have different roles so you'd expect guys across the pack to be doing different things for their impact.

 

[tookey]

Stays mean jack **** otherwise lule burgess would be one of our starting props

 

[Fluffy]

Is that true - about the impact of the line break on the stats?

Let's say Lussick's run was 50 metres. Take that run out and his total metres drop from 184 to 134. And he drops from top spot with a rate of 292 metres per full game (metres/fg) - to second top spot (behind Vave) with a rate of 213 metres/fg. i.e. Still pretty impressive without that line break.

What may favour Lussick in these stats is the short time he was on the field. 28 minutes in game 1 and 22 minutes in game four. Easier to be busy - and effective - in shorter spurts. FYI Lussicks rate of metres/fg was 203 in game 1 and 411 in game 4. Game 4 would drop to a rate of 229 metres/fg if the 50 metres for the big run was dropped off. Still impressive running.

Many things will favour/effect the results based on such small sample sizes, freshness of opposition players, how long you are on the field for (they would be told approx plan by the coach i hope), possession e.g. Myles and Starling did not get the chance to make a run for the first 12 minutes against the Sharks.

Give it another 10 games and you will get a much better feel for things.

Right now I think you have proven both Vave and Lussick have been doing a good job as an impact bench prop.

 

[lsz]

This is where baseball was at until the likes of billy bean came into it.

The stats listed are far too simplistic to make a valued judgement. For example what about a player who is the first tackler rather than a third man in? He might make less tackles but are they not more effective? Similarly what about where runs take place I.e not every mtr made should hold the same value - 5 metres close to the line opposed to 20 off a kick off (or meters gained after takled etc)

 

[Loobs]

This is where baseball was at until the likes of billy bean came into it.

The stats listed are far too simplistic to make a valued judgement. For example what about a player who is the first tackler rather than a third man in? He might make less tackles but are they not more effective? Similarly what about where runs take place I.e not every mtr made should hold the same value - 5 metres close to the line opposed to 20 off a kick off (or meters gained after takled etc)

lol the Gary Larson/Hindy - 3rd man in every time flopper making 40+ "tackles" a game

 

[pjayz]

This is where baseball was at until the likes of billy bean came into it.

The stats listed are far too simplistic to make a valued judgement. For example what about a player who is the first tackler rather than a third man in? He might make less tackles but are they not more effective? Similarly what about where runs take place I.e not every mtr made should hold the same value - 5 metres close to the line opposed to 20 off a kick off (or meters gained after takled etc)

Absolutely. These stats speak to quantity not quality, not as contributing factors to a win. Not each run is the same, not each tackle is the same, each has a unique value as a contributor to victory - that is something that is impossible to evaluate accurately.

Stats are a guide that can bring predictive benefit when used properly (and the right correlations are established), apart from that, stats can be a red herring. Still, fun to have a look at and do bring some insight.

 

[Woodsie]

To make that simple, If you are taking the ball from the kick-off you will be getting 15/20 metres every time, good for the stats.

If you hit the line hard from 3m out and score a try, bad for the stats.