Rural recession

[Matabele]

Very interesting times in the next few weeks as we are goping to have a debate forced upon us - what is the lifeblood of this nation. What is our major industry?

PJ will concur with me - we are in our 6th year of drought but this year is the worst of the 6. The bush is devastated. This is not a case of rural whigeing - when we entered the drought we had full reservoirs. Now most of our storage dams are below 20% heading into what is predicted to be a record hot and dry summer.

We have not had rain in 3 months and ALL of the cereal crops have withered on the stalk. They are gutted - there is nothing to harvest and it is too late to save them even if we did get rain.

So the debate is - how does Australia earns its livelyhood.

We know we are not a manufacturing nation (secondary industry).

In the past we have always been a primary industry economy - farming and mining. Let me assure you that non-irrigated farming is wiped out and the irrigators are very nervouse given the dam levels. Mining is riding a boom but commodity prices are probably about to pull back.

Are we a tertiary (services) economy? I'd reckon you city people think we are. But let me assure you that when times get tough the first things that will stop is the ridiculous outlays on luxury good and services and every time I visit Sydney it's hard to not leave with the feeling that a large portion of the city are in the luxury business. If they start to drop off the employment line it will create a vicious circle will it not?

I suspect that the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates next month. They will do this on the basis of "inflationary" pressure. Let me assure you, this will knee cap the bush. Outright bloodbath out here.

And I suspect the fat cats in the Reserve Bank on the 6 figure salaries have not realised that the "inflationary pressure" is not being caused by "too much disposable income" but by high bloody petrol prices and their flow on effect.

I know I am being a prophet of doom, I know my opinion differs to my other economist colleagues who are pulling the strings and I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

This is one occasion where I really hope I'm not here in a year's time saying "I told you so".

 

[earl]

Good read mata , and i concurr.
Living in Wagga Wagga , we were used to large heavy down pours during summer. You could count on a cracker of a storm at the end of a 40 degree day. Well the last good one i can remember is about 7 to 8 years ago.
it is amazing to see how much the weather conditions has changed in the last 10 years here.
Alot of the farmers here are selling up , and moving into town to try and look for jobs to keep themselves going.
I work in a large cannery and we cant compete with the likes of Brazil who's wages and beef prices are far much lower then ours.
We go to Blowering Dam every year and it is a pretty big area when it is only 1% full. It was smaller than the Tumut River(pj will know what i mean). This is the dam where the world water speed record was made.Crazy!!!!!

What the future holds , I dont know but i am wrried, especially for the next generation.

 

[Canteen Worker]

Things are certainly tough and some sectors are going to 'wither on the vine', so to speak. Sydney is a borrowed economy with many living in huge debt or on credit to afford the lifestyle.

I would like to think however that certain states will remain healthy due to our resources, which still make a motza for those multinationals that have the rights.

With the aging population, increasing costs in health care and more and more people providing services rather than doing anything productive it is a worrying time.

Now to contradict myself though, too many in the bush think that the rest of Australia owes them a living - and that the country still rides on the sheep's back (or grain of wheat, canola or whatever.

Globalisation has scuppered that one and did so long ago. Our rural sector has not had the political sway of say that in the USA and whilst the freebies offered to producers are substantial they don't get the free kick that European and American farmers get. Still a lot of country kids in private boarding schools at $30 k a pop!!!!

 

[Jatz Crackers]

Now just to keep up with the morbidity factor, in addition to the environmental problems Mata has raised, there is more bad news on the way.

Democratic governments and the theory of democratic justice & rule of law is slowly dying on the vine.

Burdened with increasingly fat bureaucracies who deliver misfeasance & incompetence and the separation of powers between the political & judiciary a complete farce, it is only a matter of time before the democratic system fails with 1st world countries like USA, UK & Oz etc effected greatly as a result.

With moral values in decline, the family unit under an all out assault, wealth disparity across the globe on a massive scale and the erosion of communities of all types suffering, there is less and less opportunity for the good in man to be seen.

For a global community that has supposedly come so far over the last couple of centuries and when there is an increasing need to focus on moral and ethical dilemmas facing the human species, there is still large scale conflict in the world in terms of religion, race & now even one gender pitted against the other.

Yes, I am worried about many things and remain concerned for my children.

 

[Guest]

My wife's side of the family live in Dubbo, Tamworth and Murrurundi and I know how much the drought has effected them.

Unfortunately drought has been a regular factor over the past 20 or so years with the big dry in the early eighties as well.

We can't make it rain but what we do is always buy australian produce no matter how much it costs. We will never buy **** from brazil or any other country no matter how cheap it is.

We should always support australian farmers and manufacturers (what is left) is the best thing that we can do.

 

[Sideline]

I feel for the people of the bush. No wonder the suicide rate is so high, drought, very little work available, etc. We live in the driest continent and its getting drier. In Sydney most of the rain seems to fall on the coast but the catchments areas are in western Sydney.

 

[Matabele]

The only problem with buying Australian is that it isn't going to the farmers.

The farmers are getting butt rooted by the Flemington agents (who own prominent race horses) and the corporate monoliths - Woolies and Coles.

And the CEO of Woolies attempts to make out he is a "Christian". I'd love to hear what Jesus would have to say to him if he called churchmen rotting corpses and tomb stones.

 

[Guest]

I know that the farmers get very little for their product. But at least they will get more than if we buy food from China.

 

[Canteen Worker]

The only problem with buying Australian is that it isn't going to the farmers.

The farmers are getting butt rooted by the Flemington agents (who own prominent race horses) and the corporate monoliths - Woolies and Coles.

And the CEO of Woolies attempts to make out he is a \"Christian\". I'd love to hear what Jesus would have to say to him if he called churchmen rotting corpses and tomb stones.

Bit of a low blow Mata. I know this guy personally and you are way off the mark!!! This isn't the daily telegraph!!

 

[Matabele]

How does he reconcile his "faith" with the way he runs his business?

 

[Canteen Worker]

He has just retired. I am not sure what you are asking? His company has an Aussie board, they use local markets and they are competing in a global market. What actual conflicts of faith are you suggesting he faces?

 

[Matabele]

Erm, how about we have a quick read over the Sermon of the Mount and see how many of those platitudes Woolworths are guilty of contravening?

 

[earl]

Woolies and Coles use their size to bully farmers and pay sweet **** all for the product. Their bully tactics leave the farmers with little choice but tos sell to them at a vedry low price.

 

[Matabele]

And if they don't like what they're given they throw it back to the farmers with very flimsy reasons and won't make payment.

They have NFI what it takes to grow a crop and expect "perfection" every time which is a nuffy.

 

[The Gronk]

The only problem with buying Australian is that it isn't going to the farmers.

The farmers are getting butt rooted by the Flemington agents (who own prominent race horses) and the corporate monoliths - Woolies and Coles.

And the CEO of Woolies attempts to make out he is a \"Christian\". I'd love to hear what Jesus would have to say to him if he called churchmen rotting corpses and tomb stones.

I guess that's why markets where farmers sell direct to the public are starting to spring up in the capital cities.

 

[Matabele]

[quote author=Matabele]
The only problem with buying Australian is that it isn't going to the farmers.

The farmers are getting butt rooted by the Flemington agents (who own prominent race horses) and the corporate monoliths - Woolies and Coles.

And the CEO of Woolies attempts to make out he is a \"Christian\". I'd love to hear what Jesus would have to say to him if he called churchmen rotting corpses and tomb stones.

I guess that's why markets where farmers sell direct to the public are starting to spring up in the capital cities.

[/quote]

Yeah, but there is no economy of scale to it. It works out okay for the small operator that lives close to the city, but the majority of growers operate on large scales and are not close enough to the cities to make it viable to toddle down with a visy bin of pumpkins for the day. They fill 5-6 semis each day and this goes to destinations where they are not getting a fair deal.

 

[Guest]

Hopefully the weather map is indicating that there might be some rain around NSW in the next week. Lets hope so.

We don't buy fruit from woolies because the quality is crap. It is obvious that they store and gas a lot of their fruit so that they can have it all year round. The result is absolute crap fruit. Some of the vegetables are OK but you need to chose carefully.

The local fruiterer or local organic markets are better quality.

 

[The Gronk]

[quote author=The Gronk]
[quote author=Matabele]
The only problem with buying Australian is that it isn't going to the farmers.

The farmers are getting butt rooted by the Flemington agents (who own prominent race horses) and the corporate monoliths - Woolies and Coles.

And the CEO of Woolies attempts to make out he is a \"Christian\". I'd love to hear what Jesus would have to say to him if he called churchmen rotting corpses and tomb stones.

I guess that's why markets where farmers sell direct to the public are starting to spring up in the capital cities.

[/quote]

Yeah, but there is no economy of scale to it. It works out okay for the small operator that lives close to the city, but the majority of growers operate on large scales and are not close enough to the cities to make it viable to toddle down with a visy bin of pumpkins for the day. They fill 5-6 semis each day and this goes to destinations where they are not getting a fair deal.

[/quote]
Yeah it is just a small fightback against a bad situation.

Do you think these growers might have a bit more bargaining power if they did things more collectively? I wouldn't tell them to unionise though, "union" is like a swear word to farmers.

 

[Matabele]

They have been trying to get a growers collective happening for several years.

But it keeps falling over because there are always operators that break ranks for the following reasons:

1. They are threatened with loss of contract from one of the major 2.

2. They receive death threats from some of the lovely mafia types that infest the markets.

 

[earl]

True Mata but most wont admit to it.

It will need to rain for a long time to reverse any damage done, not just a little bit here and there. Out here we dont get excited about rain until it goes for a day or two, cause a couple of hours worth is a waste as it all runs off and doesnt soak in.