The return of the Stewart brothers should give Manly fans plenty of reasons to smile on Friday night
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/the-return-of-the-stewart-brothers-should-give-manly-fans-plenty-of-reasons-to-smile-on-friday-night/story-e6frexnr-1226338336740
LET'S take emotion out of tomorrow night's grudge match between the Bulldogs and the Sea Eagles and concentrate on some facts.
For Manly, this round eight blockbuster represents more than just an opportunity to get revenge against their former coach.
It's a chance to prove something to themselves.
Manly won't know for certain until after tonight's final training run if the Stewart brothers and Kieran Foran will play.
Jamie Lyon said the other day he and his teammates have their fingers crossed.
For good reason.
Take $1 million-plus worth of talent out of any NRL roster and watch them struggle.
But here's why being back to somewhere near full strength tomorrow night will be sure to transform Geoff Toovey's team.
By simply crunching the numbers on the Sea Eagles' tries scored and conceded dating back to 2007, you can clearly see that to get back up into top-four calculations, they need to increase by one try in points scored and decrease by one try in points conceded.
This year Manly have scored just under 19 points on average per game, while conceding just above 18.
Now, if you look back at the three years they made the grand final under Des Hasler - 2011, 2008 and 2007 - they are basically six points either way of being a premiership team again.
This is where the absence of the Stewart brothers, along with Foran and T-Rex, enters the equation. With points scored last year, the Sea Eagles had 162 try and line-break assists all up. Of those, 39 per cent were made between these four players just mentioned.
Predominantly, it was Brett Stewart and Foran who contributed most, roughly 90 per cent of those 63 try and line-break assists.
Then there's what Glenn Stewart adds to the right-edge defence. As the best defensive back-rower in the game, if he's back Manly's right side will be ready to handle big Frank Pritchard and Josh Morris.
This year the Dogs have scored 10 tries down the left-hand side, nine in the centre corridor, and only five on the right. In comparison, Manly have conceded seven down the right, eight on the left, and six up the middle.
Which is why Glenn Stewart's return is so crucial.
Snapshot One goes back to round two in Gosford when the Wests Tigers' Adam Blair walked through Manly's right edge. You can clearly see that without him, there was a communication breakdown.
Daly Cherry-Evans has his back turned, Jamie Lyon is square on, which was the right thing to do, while out on the wing the Wolfman is backing off heading towards his own tryline, which allowed Blair a free passage.
Snapshot Two shows the most recent loss against the Gold Coast. Here Scott Prince starts well on the inside of Cherry-Evans before he shows the ball inside to Greg Bird, which attracts Cherry-Evans.
That allows Prince to play short to big Jamal Idris, who went in between Lyon and David Williams to score.
Glenn Stewart will help rectify this through his ability to read the attack which, in turn, puts pressure on the Bulldogs' ball players and decoys.
Geoff Toovey and the Manly players have good reason to be looking forward to tomorrow night, and not just because of the Des factor.