Canberra Raiders V Sea Eagles
Sunday June 21 4:05pm
Campbelltown Stadium
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Morning rain. Cloudy morning with some sunnier breaks this afternoon. Very high (near 100 per cent) chance of rain in the morning, easing to a medium (50 per cent) chance of showers in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm, with possible hail. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h then shifting westerly in the late afternoon or early evening. Chance of any rain: 95 per cent. Possible rainfall: 4 to 8 mm Min 9 Max 17
It is getting to be a bit like Groundhog Day. The Canberra Raiders return to Campbelltown Stadium... this time for a Round 6 "home" clash with the Manly Sea Eagles.
Last week: 2020 Round 5. Canberra Raiders 14 - Wests Tigers 6. It was tough, brutal even. It was gritty and a bit ugly. But the Canberra Raiders were able to grind out a win over the Wests Tigers at Campbelltown Stadium in Ricky Stuart's 400th game as an NRL coach. He deserved the celebratory drink in the sheds after the game.
More on Round 5: As I saw it
Team news: Corey Horsburgh returns from illness at lock for the Raiders, with Sia Soliola moving to starting prop. Dunamis Lui has been dropped to the extended bench, along with Bailey Simonsson, while Hudson Young returns from a lengthy suspension on the interchange bench. Jordan Rapana has retained his place on the left wing.
For the Sea Eagles, Martin Taupau (dislocated thumb) and Moses Suli (finger) are out, with Brendan Elliott included at centre and Addin Fonua-Blake is back at starting prop. Curtis Sironen returns from injury in the second row in place of Corey Waddell. Former Raider Morgan Boyle as been included on the bench. The top 17 also includes former Raiders Joel Thompson and Lachlan Croker.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Dunamis Lui and Matt Frawley from the squad of 21 on Saturday afternoon with Bailey Simonsson and Tom Starling remaining on the extended bench. Toff Sipley and Cade Cust drop out of the Sea Eagles squad of 21.
History: The Raiders have won just 21 of 57 games against the Manly Sea Eagles, and drawn one. Since late 2004, the Raiders have won only six of 24 contests, and four of the past 10. If you add in matches against the Northern Eagles, the numbers are no better. Overall, Canberra has won 23 of 63 contests, a 37 per cent win rate.
The Raiders lost both matches in 2017 in golden point - 20-18 at Canberra Stadium and 21-20 at Brookvale. In 2018, Canberra lost the Round 4 match at Brookvale, 32-16, but finally got some payback in Round 12, with Aidan Sezer clinching a 21-20 victory with a final minute field goal. Last year, the Raiders lost in Round 7 to the Sea Eagles 24-20 at Brookvale - despite the fact the home team lost key playmaker Daly Cherry-Evans to injury for most of the second half. And the Sea Eagles backed that up with an 18-14 victory at Canberra Stadium in Round 23. The two teams have never previously met at Campbelltown Stadium.
2019 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2019 Round 7 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2018 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2018 Round 4 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Form: Raiders: WWWLW
Sea Eagles: LWWLW
The Raiders have posted a 4 and 1 start to 2020, while the Sea Eagles are 3 and 2. The Sea Eagles have lost to the Storm (18-4) and Eels (19-16), but have also defeated the 2019 premiers 9-8. They had a 20-18 comeback win over the Broncos last week, after trailing 18-0 at half time.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.56 favourites, while the Sea Eagles are paying $2.45. The Sea Eagles have 4.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: This is a battle between second (Raiders) and seventh (Sea Eagles) on the ladder. It is still early in the season, but we are starting to see some trends emerge in the statistics. The Raiders have the better attacking and defensive record of the two teams. But when you look a bit more closely, there is not a lot of difference between them.
The Raiders have scored 17 tries (equal sixth in the NRL), the Sea Eagles 14 (equal ninth). It is probably fair to say that the attack of both teams has yet to fully click. The attacking style of both teams is quite different. The Sea Eagles are second in the NRL (behind the Eels) for general play passes (107 per game), the Raiders are last (61). The Raiders are also last in the NRL for offloads, the Sea Eagles ninth. The Raiders are second in the competition for one pass hit ups (94 per game, behind the Knights), the Sea Eagles are 12th. The Raiders are third in the league for dummy half runs, the Sea Eagles are 14th.
This is why some opposition coaches have said that they "know what to expect" from the Raiders in attack. The Raiders play tight and kick long to set up attacking opportunities. The Raiders rank second in the league for kicking metres, and second for long kicks (behind the Knights). The Sea Eagles use the ball more and their forwards aim to get quick rucks, gain momentum and create space for their attacking maestros, Daly Cherry Evans and Tom Trbojevic.
The Raiders have conceded 10 tries (fourth lowest in the NRL), the Sea Eagles 11 (fifth). The Raiders' defensive numbers suffer due to the blow out loss to the Knights. They have only conceded one try and six points in their other four matches. However, the Raiders have struggled to contain the Sea Eagles attacking style in recent years. It could be more difficult under the new "six again" rules. Canberra will really need to do their best to slow the Sea Eagles' momentum and cut down the time for their play makers.
2020 Season record: Raiders 4 and 1 (2nd, 40+)
Sea Eagles 3 and 2 (7th, +12)
Attack: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 6th on tries scored
Sea Eagles 16 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 9th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 12 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th
Sea Eagles 14 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Sea Eagles 51 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 77 per cent, Sea Eagles 80 per cent
Running: Raiders 1679 running metres from 177 runs (14 dummy half runs), 164 kick return metres, 577 post contact metres per match
Sea Eagles 1657 running metres from 187 runs (8 dummy half runs), 168 kick return metres, 567 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 33, Sea Eagles 31
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Sea Eagles 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Sea Eagles 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Sea Eagles 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 6, Sea Eagles 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 630 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Sea Eagles 537 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 338 made, 32 missed, 15 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Sea Eagles 309 made, 25 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1445, Sea Eagles 1508 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Sea Eagles 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Sea Eagles 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Tom Trbojevic. Trbojevic is now leading the Dally M count and is no doubt, one of the leading fullbacks in the competition. So far in 2020, he has three tries, three line breaks, six try assists, 12 tackle breaks and has averaged 161 running metres per game. After a break out season in 2019, Nicoll-Klokstad is finding the going a bit tougher this year. Opposition teams are targeting him with bombs, so as to allow the chasers to pressure his kick defusals and cut down his space for kick returns. He has looked less confident under the high ball in the past couple of weeks. But he still has fewer errors per game (one) than Trbojevic (two). He's also still producing lots of running metres. Maybe not as many as 2019, but he's still in the top four fullbacks on that score (190 per game, behind Tedesco, Tuivasa-Sheck and Gutherson). The area CNK still needs to develop is his ball playing. In 2020, he has one try, no try assists and 13 tackle breaks. If I were awarding a "skin", it'd have to go to Trbojevic.
George Williams and Daly Cherry Evans Daly Cherry Evans is in the mould of a traditional halfback, while George Williams is more a runner. But Williams still has some good organisational skills and a very good kicking game. In 2020, DCE has one try, one try assist, two line break assists, four forced line drop outs and 79 running metres and 425 kicking metres per game. Williams is yet to score an NRL try, but he has six try assists, one line break assist, three forced line drop outs and 77 running metres and 244 kicking metres per game. Williams has an effective tackle rate of 88 per cent in 2020, DCE 85 per cent. I'd say Williams' tackles have a lot more sting as well. After just five games in Australia, Williams compares pretty well to the Sea Eagles captain. It should be a great contest between the two on Sunday.
Addin Fonua-Blake and Josh Papalii These two props may not face each other directly, but they are the forward leaders of their respective teams. Fonua-Blake makes big metres. He is averaging 190 running metres per game, compared with 159 for Papalii. Fonua-Blake also has six tackle breaks in 2020, 421 post contact metres 27 tackles per game and a 94 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Papalii has a try, 18 tackle breaks, 303 post contact metres, 31 tackles per game and a 97 per cent tackle efficiency rate. His game is almost error free. Papalii is the best prop in the world, for mine, but Fonua-Blake sure is damaging. They'll have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
Our tip: This match will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, even though the Sea Eagles have some injury problems. It is a danger game. The Raiders have often struggled to deal with the Sea Eagles' style of attack. They have a big mobile pack and strike in the spine, and the Raiders will have their hands full in trying to contain them. The Sea Eagles also bring out the niggle when they face Canberra... and it is a tactic that has worked in the past. The Green Machine will have to ignore the antics of players like Dylan Walker and Addin Fonua-Blake. On paper, the Raiders should be too strong, but games aren't played on paper. Canberra will have to improve on the last couple of weeks if they're to win. I think they can do it, but don't be surprised by an "upset". Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Ryan Sutton on competition for spots in the forward pack: "We're always pushing each other at training. The intensity at training really improves and it shows on the field. I understand competition is good within this team. I'm not taking any game for granted, I want to just keep getting better and better. It's a matter of just keeping it simple, not overcomplicating things. I've done it in the past when I have thought about it too much."
Jordan Rapana on his desire to nail down the left wing position: "I much prefer left side, I always played on the left growing up. I need to be starting for me, fitness wise. Slowly getting back to where it once was. I enjoy starting because you get the full 80 minutes and that match fitness back quicker."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Curtis Scott
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
