Nathan Brown Impact?

[maxta]

Seibold's signings have a bit of a Moneyball feel to them. Lodge and Brown very unpopular signings, for various reasons. Waddell, Talau and Paulo not greeted with excitement, and even Brooks - a good player but totally out of left field as a Manly recruit. Could be a very interesting season.

Great point Ser8 and probs worth a thread "Moneyball signings" as agree 100% with this.
Even Brooks, who is kind of in that basket as has not been in vogue as a Top half for a while, in fact a declining half in that Tigers operation....but I feel will relish being at the Seaeagles 2024.
Talau is interesting for mine as had Massive potential a few years back, but then slipped with combined injuries/confidence, but in games I seen last year still had some tackle breaking ability and in a better system, could suprise in a Manly jersey.
Paulo I was assured a while ago and did post WILL be the other wing spot, with Garrick moving to centres and I have high hopes for him and see him as a definite upside to other options....at least to start the season.
Waddell is personally not my favourite player, but definitely can push for a spot in the 17 with his agility and skills on the edge and again in games he played last season, was near best for Dogs on most occasions (but that's not meaning too much) .... I actually think Burbo is the 1 player who has more upside than shown thus far and though not a NEW player, is also a Moneyball type who could be worth well more than his pay packet in 2024...

 

[Rocky]

Honestly I think this has been a great off season / pre season recruitment

Ins:

Brooks - key signing that will help provide more structure, straighten up our attack and run the ball as well as getting Koula more involved this year - 600k
Lodge - When he comes back around round 5 I can see him being the leader with Paseka of the pack and both of them complement eachother well through Lodge more power and grunt and Paseka more mobile with size and late footwork - around 500k or whatever Keepie was on
Brown - Needed more middle forward depth with grunt and has experience - on min / cheap wage
Paulo - Favourite to be starting winger and suits our style of speed on edges also allowing Garrick to play centre - on min wage
James - More middle forward depth and good to have a young gun amongst experience - on cheap cash
Talau - Needed more centre cover with parker converting to 2nd row and has more upside than Harper - min wage
Waddell - Insurance option on edge if Schuster doesn't perform to get a bench spot and could also transform his game into a middle forward with leg speed like Bully did to be effective in modern game - on min / cheap

Outs:
Tuilangi: With Brooks coming and Schuster going 2nd row and Burbo taking over his role smart decision to let him go on 300k a year. Made poor defensive reads and ran for 70 metres a game as well.
Keepie: Far too many errors and defensive lapses in the middle of the park and was on 500k. Great trade by going Keepie to Lodge.
Kao Weekes: Too skinny to play anywhere else then fullback with tommy, koula and garrick all ahead of him and with Brooks signing he had no chance of playing 1st grade and was on decent cash. Manly also gave him plenty of opportunites and he didn't perform.
Morgan Harper: Mentally he needed a change as most Manly fans don't like him and his peak is pretty average. Replaced by Tommy Talau who has more upside and who's on min wage.
Christian Tuipulotu: Replaced by Paulo who's on cheaper cash and suits Manly style of speed on edges and is on cheaper cash then Tuipilotu, another great decision.

So basically;

• Brooks for Tuilangi (Schuster 2nd row) -
• Lodge for Keepie
• Paulo for Tuipulotu
• Talau for Harper

All 4 trades that are wins for us.

Manly's problem last year was not enough depth in middle forwards -

Brown - Middle forward depth
James - middle forward depth
Waddell - middle forward / edge depth

3 more wins

7-0

Great recruitment

Josh, I really enjoy your posts and analysis.

I agree with a lot of what you wrote here. The only exception would be Matt Lodge. I'm not against having him in the team but who exactly was Manly bidding against when we gave him the 500k contract? After flaming out at three teams in a row he had zero leverage and should have been paid minimum wage.

Other than that, I think you nailed everything else.

 

[maxta]

Josh, I really enjoy your posts and analysis.

I agree with a lot of what you wrote here. The only exception would be Matt Lodge. I'm not against having him in the team but who exactly was Manly bidding against when we gave him the 500k contract? After flaming out at three teams in a row he had zero leverage and should have been paid minimum wage.

Other than that, I think you nailed everything else.

I get your point Rocky in the sense, there may not have been higher bidders, but in his short stint in 2023 Lodge proved he offers a heap of impact and imo was our dominant forward making the $500,000 a damn good deal.
Don't get me wrong, I mean what your saying is we may have only been bidding against ourselves and got him like $150,000, but I really feel he will prove great value (if he stays on the field)

 

[Rocky]

I get your point Rocky in the sense, there may not have been higher bidders, but in his short stint in 2023 Lodge proved he offers a heap of impact and imo was our dominant forward making the $500,000 a damn good deal.
Don't get me wrong, I mean what your saying is we may have only been bidding against ourselves and got him like $150,000, but I really feel he will prove great value (if he stays on the field)

He looked good in two games for Manly. But he has a history of seducing teams with his power game and then dropping off in form. If he was 21yo Maxta I would agree with you that he should be paid on what he may produce going forward.

Manly should have signed him on a low wage with incentives. Maybe that's what they have done anyway (I hope so).

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Don't get me wrong, I mean what your saying is we may have only been bidding against ourselves and got him like $150,000,

Never would have happened. He was reported to have signed on at Chooks for about $100k for the last few games of 2022, after the NRL valued him at $20k per game (which is about $480k for 24 games). Other NRL clubs, as well as English clubs,would have got in a bidding war, especially after he showed solid form in his couple of runs at Manly.
Why we would want him is a fair question, but given Seibold did want him, I don't think the money is the problem. Clearly we let go of Keppie to make that available.

 

[Rocky]

Never would have happened. He was reported to have signed on at Chooks for about $100k for the last few games of 2022, after the NRL valued him at $20k per game (which is about $480k for 24 games). Other NRL clubs, as well as English clubs,would have got in a bidding war, especially after he showed solid form in his couple of runs at Manly.
Why we would want him is a fair question, but given Seibold did want him, I don't think the money is the problem. Clearly we let go of Keppie to make that available.

Other NRL Clubs would have gotten into a bidding war for Lodge?

Anyone could have signed him after the chooks cut him loose. Manly threw him a lifeline on a train and trial because no one wanted him.

I'll concede he looked good in two games with Manly, but we all know Lodge has that in him. It's why he has had some big-dollar contracts. But then his form drops off and he gets paid to leave the club. At least 3 clubs have paid him to f%%k off!

Throw in the ACL injury and his awful employment history. I don't see a bidding war.

 

[Eagle 1]

I get your point Rocky in the sense, there may not have been higher bidders, but in his short stint in 2023 Lodge proved he offers a heap of impact and imo was our dominant forward making the $500,000 a damn good deal.
Don't get me wrong, I mean what your saying is we may have only been bidding against ourselves and got him like $150,000, but I really feel he will prove great value (if he stays on the field)

If not us, Lodge would of been snaped up pretty quickly I feel for about the same coin. Lets just hope Lodge doesn't self explode, he's got the makings of being a real forwards leader for us.

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Other NRL Clubs would have gotten into a bidding war for Lodge?

Lol, maybe bidding war was putting it a bit strongly. But I'm sure one or 2 of the usual battling clubs would have expressed interest, or there's always a couple of coaches who think they're the one that will finally get the best from a problem player.
Seibold moved fast, and he knows he'll be judged on how his choices work out. It wasn't really a move anyone here was calling for, but we'll all get to see what happens.

 

[maxta]

Never would have happened. He was reported to have signed on at Chooks for about $100k for the last few games of 2022, after the NRL valued him at $20k per game (which is about $480k for 24 games). Other NRL clubs, as well as English clubs,would have got in a bidding war, especially after he showed solid form in his couple of runs at Manly.
Why we would want him is a fair question, but given Seibold did want him, I don't think the money is the problem. Clearly we let go of Keppie to make that available.

Sometimes you add funny bits of my post SER8....the main part was I actually like the signing at $500,000 and reckon he will be bang for buck...I also get what Rocky meant as we took him for $150,000 and "noone else" wanted him, but he played well enough to add eyes out there from other clubs imo if only 2 games.....

 

[HoldenV8]

If Matt Lodge can find a home at Manly then great. When he's fit and firing he is a very good front rower. I know a few Warriors fans who still lament that he didn't want to move to Auckland. They thought they had a top front row in Lodge and AFB.

It happens, some players are nomads. How many teams did Phil Blake play for? 6 in our comp (Manly, Souths, Norths, Canberra, St George, Auckland), 2 in England (Warrington and Wigan).

 

[Ned]

Sometimes you add funny bits of my post SER8....the main part was I actually like the signing at $500,000 and reckon he will be bang for buck...I also get what Rocky meant as we took him for $150,000 and "noone else" wanted him, but he played well enough to add eyes out there from other clubs imo if only 2 games.....

If he's out with ACL for 5 rounds , still undetermined I know that's 20% of the season so that 500k is the equivalent of 600k, and with his known issues stated here already I'm not sure it's a great deal for us, but time will tell I guess.

After flaming out at three teams in a row he had zero leverage and should have been paid minimum wage.

same could be said for Brown, maybe he's only flamed out at 2 teams though

 

[Rocky]

If he's out with ACL for 5 rounds , still undetermined I know that's 20% of the season so that 500k is the equivalent of 600k, and with his known issues stated here already I'm not sure it's a great deal for us, but time will tell I guess.


same could be said for Brown, maybe he's only flamed out at 2 teams though

True - but he is actually on minimum isnt he? Assuming thats why he's come in hungry in the pre season.

 

[eaglebuzz]

If Lodge didn't do his ACL last year we would have made the finals, his impact was that big. If Brown's training is anything to go by we might be lucky enough to see similar from him.

 

[Ned]

True - but he is actually on minimum isnt he? Assuming thats why he's come in hungry in the pre season.

I don't know, most of the estimates of wages are the usual silvertails speculation. Hope you're right though.

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Sometimes you add funny bits of my post SER8

Sorry, it's true I've never mastered the proper etiquette for using the 'quote' function .. didn't mean to misrepresent your post, but often out of a lengthy post I only want to comment on one bit. So I quote that bit that I find interesting. (I agree with your main point!)

 

[maxta]

Sorry, it's true I've never mastered the proper etiquette for using the 'quote' function .. didn't mean to misrepresent your post, but often out of a lengthy post I only want to comment on one bit. So I quote that bit that I find interesting. (I agree with your main point!)

All is good
There was nothing sinister in it, just kind of gave my post the opposite meaning

 

[Disco]

Still pretty cautious on Brown.

Think many are getting caught up in the 'training the house down' narrative.

Will have to see it on the field.

 

[maxta]

Still pretty cautious on Brown.

Think many are getting caught up in the 'training the house down' narrative.

Will have to see it on the field.

Very true - Ive seen world beaters on the training paddock not add up to much.
A close mate of mine still involved at Manly, told me to watch out for Gosiewski who came to Manly a few years ago and trained like a Monster and the hopes were very high, yet when it came to game time fell well short of the mark....and there are many others.
Thing is, Brown has proved himself at SOO level and I expect a decent performance from him without setting the world on fire, but what does excite me most is his intensity and attitude that will benefit the players around him and help get back that "resilience" we have often lacked in recent seasons when the going gets tough....I think Lodge showed exactly this in just a few games last year also.
It's not JUST what they bring as players, but the Positive effect they have on the playing group, which is the main bonus of this signing imo.

 

[eaglebuzz]

Very true - Ive seen world beaters on the training paddock not add up to much.
A close mate of mine still involved at Manly, told me to watch out for Gosiewski who came to Manly a few years ago and trained like a Monster and the hopes were very high, yet when it came to game time fell well short of the mark....and there are many others.
Thing is, Brown has proved himself at SOO level and I expect a decent performance from him without setting the world on fire, but what does excite me most is his intensity and attitude that will benefit the players around him and help get back that "resilience" we have often lacked in recent seasons when the going gets tough....I think Lodge showed exactly this in just a few games last year also.
It's not JUST what they bring as players, but the Positive effect they have on the playing group, which is the main bonus of this signing imo.

Yeah, Brown has done it once already. I'm just wary of whatever injuries he is carrying. If his slump in form the last couple of years was due to attitude, then we have a real chance of him returning to his best. But if his knees are gone then we might have another underwhelming depth forward on our hands.

 

[Ryan]

Very true - Ive seen world beaters on the training paddock not add up to much.
A close mate of mine still involved at Manly, told me to watch out for Gosiewski who came to Manly a few years ago and trained like a Monster and the hopes were very high, yet when it came to game time fell well short of the mark....and there are many others.
Thing is, Brown has proved himself at SOO level and I expect a decent performance from him without setting the world on fire, but what does excite me most is his intensity and attitude that will benefit the players around him and help get back that "resilience" we have often lacked in recent seasons when the going gets tough....I think Lodge showed exactly this in just a few games last year also.
It's not JUST what they bring as players, but the Positive effect they have on the playing group, which is the main bonus of this signing imo.

I always thought Gosi was pretty good when he played for us, mate, but then again, my judgmental skills are in my arsehole. I thought the day we signed David Vaeliki was the day we got a world beater - hahaha.