CliffyFlick
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Yes, the Manly Sea Eagles can still mathematically qualify for the NRL semi-finals (top 8) in 2025, though their chances are slim following recent losses, including a 28-12 defeat to the Canberra Raiders in Round 23. As of August 10, 2025, after updating the ladder for known Round 23 results (Raiders beat Manly; Roosters beat Dolphins convincingly based on match data indicating 11 tries to 2), Manly sits in 10th place with 24 points from 21 games played (9 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes), a points for/against differential of -10 (approximately, accounting for the recent loss; pre-loss it was +6).
The current top 10 (adjusted for Round 23 results where available) looks like this:
1. Canberra Raiders: 40 points (+184 differential)
2. Melbourne Storm: 36 points (+248)
3. Canterbury Bulldogs: 36 points (+140)
4. Penrith Panthers: 31 points (+119)
5. New Zealand Warriors: 30 points (+8)
6. Brisbane Broncos: 28 points (+104)
7. Cronulla Sharks: 28 points (+35)
8. Sydney Roosters: 28 points (+120, approximately, after big win over Dolphins)
9. Dolphins: 26 points (+71, approximately, after heavy loss to Roosters)
10. Manly Sea Eagles: 24 points (-10)
Teams from 11th downward (e.g., Dragons at 22 points) are unlikely to catch up without perfect runs and major upsets.
Path for Manly to Reach the Top 8
Manly has 4 games remaining (total 24 games per team + 3 byes), with a maximum possible finish of 32 points if they win all (highly challenging given their form and opponents). Their remaining fixtures are:
• Round 24: vs. Wests Tigers (away)
• Round 25: vs. Dolphins (home)
• Round 26: vs. St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
• Round 27: vs. New Zealand Warriors (home)
To qualify, Manly realistically needs at least 30 points (win 3 of 4 remaining), but preferably 32 (win all 4) to leapfrog teams like the Dolphins and Roosters, as their poor differential makes ties unfavorable. Even then, they require significant help from other results, as the Broncos, Sharks, and Roosters are already at 28 points, and the Dolphins at 26.
Key Games Other Teams Need to Win or Lose to Help Manly
The race for 8th is primarily between the Dolphins, Roosters, and Manly, with the Broncos and Sharks vulnerable if they falter. Manly benefits most if:
• Dolphins (26 points, remaining games: Broncos away, Sea Eagles away, Titans home, Raiders home) lose at least 3 of their 4 (finishing on 26-30 points). Their direct clash with Manly in Round 25 is crucial—if Manly wins, it directly hurts the Dolphins while boosting Manly’s points and potentially differential. Dolphins losing to the Broncos (tough away game) and Raiders (strong home side) would be ideal.
• Roosters (28 points, remaining games: Bulldogs home, Eels away, Storm away, Rabbitohs home) lose at least 3 of their 4 (finishing on 28-32 points). They face a brutal run with top teams like the Bulldogs and Storm; upsets there (e.g., Eels or Rabbitohs winning) would cap the Roosters at 30 or below.
• Broncos (28 points, remaining games: Dolphins home, Knights away, Cowboys away, Storm home) lose 2-3 of their 4 (finishing on 28-32 points). Losses to the Dolphins (if Dolphins are motivated), Cowboys (QLD derby), and Storm (tough home finale) could drop them to 30 or less.
• Sharks (28 points, remaining games: Dragons away, Titans home, bye—worth 2 points, Knights home, Bulldogs away) lose 2-3 of their 3 playable games (finishing on 30-34 points, including bye). The bye gives them a free 2 points, so they need to drop games against the Dragons, Titans, Knights, or Bulldogs to stay vulnerable.
If the Broncos and Sharks win 2+ each, they’ll likely secure 32+ points and lock in spots, making it harder for Manly. Lower teams like the Dragons (remaining: Sharks home, Titans away, Sea Eagles home, Panthers away) or Tigers (remaining: Sea Eagles home, bye, Eels away, Cowboys home) would need to win all remaining while Manly collapses, which is improbable but could pressure if they upset contenders.
Estimated Premiership Points to Hold a Top 8 Position
Based on current standings, predictions, and historical trends (where 8th place typically requires 28-32 points in recent seasons), around 30 points is the minimum estimated threshold for a top 8 spot in 2025. This accounts for the remaining 4 games most teams have—current 8th (Roosters at 28) could reach 36 if they win all, but projections suggest 8th will land around 30-32 after upsets and form dips. Teams like the top 5 are already safe at 30+, while the bubble teams (6th-10th) will push the cutoff higher if they perform well.
For and Against Points Needed to Suit Manly
Manly’s differential (-10) is a major weakness compared to rivals (Dolphins ~+71, Roosters ~+120, Broncos +104, Sharks +35). In case of a points tie for 8th, the team with the better differential advances, so Manly would almost certainly lose ties. To improve their chances:
• They need to win their remaining games by large margins (e.g., +20 or more per win) to boost their differential to +10 or better—realistically requiring ~+40-50 across 3-4 wins (e.g., high-scoring attacks while holding opponents under 10 points).
• Rivals must suffer heavy losses to worsen their differentials (e.g., Dolphins or Roosters conceding 30+ points in defeats, dropping their +70-120 to below Manly’s improved figure).
• Avoid low-scoring wins or losses, as their recent form (e.g., scoring only 12 vs. Raiders while conceding 28) has hurt their diff further.
Overall, Manly’s path relies on a perfect run (winning all 4, including upsets over Dolphins and Warriors) combined with 2-3 losses each for the Dolphins, Roosters, Broncos, and Sharks. Their chance is estimated at under 10% post-recent losses, but rugby league’s unpredictability keeps it possible.
The current top 10 (adjusted for Round 23 results where available) looks like this:
1. Canberra Raiders: 40 points (+184 differential)
2. Melbourne Storm: 36 points (+248)
3. Canterbury Bulldogs: 36 points (+140)
4. Penrith Panthers: 31 points (+119)
5. New Zealand Warriors: 30 points (+8)
6. Brisbane Broncos: 28 points (+104)
7. Cronulla Sharks: 28 points (+35)
8. Sydney Roosters: 28 points (+120, approximately, after big win over Dolphins)
9. Dolphins: 26 points (+71, approximately, after heavy loss to Roosters)
10. Manly Sea Eagles: 24 points (-10)
Teams from 11th downward (e.g., Dragons at 22 points) are unlikely to catch up without perfect runs and major upsets.
Path for Manly to Reach the Top 8
Manly has 4 games remaining (total 24 games per team + 3 byes), with a maximum possible finish of 32 points if they win all (highly challenging given their form and opponents). Their remaining fixtures are:
• Round 24: vs. Wests Tigers (away)
• Round 25: vs. Dolphins (home)
• Round 26: vs. St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
• Round 27: vs. New Zealand Warriors (home)
To qualify, Manly realistically needs at least 30 points (win 3 of 4 remaining), but preferably 32 (win all 4) to leapfrog teams like the Dolphins and Roosters, as their poor differential makes ties unfavorable. Even then, they require significant help from other results, as the Broncos, Sharks, and Roosters are already at 28 points, and the Dolphins at 26.
Key Games Other Teams Need to Win or Lose to Help Manly
The race for 8th is primarily between the Dolphins, Roosters, and Manly, with the Broncos and Sharks vulnerable if they falter. Manly benefits most if:
• Dolphins (26 points, remaining games: Broncos away, Sea Eagles away, Titans home, Raiders home) lose at least 3 of their 4 (finishing on 26-30 points). Their direct clash with Manly in Round 25 is crucial—if Manly wins, it directly hurts the Dolphins while boosting Manly’s points and potentially differential. Dolphins losing to the Broncos (tough away game) and Raiders (strong home side) would be ideal.
• Roosters (28 points, remaining games: Bulldogs home, Eels away, Storm away, Rabbitohs home) lose at least 3 of their 4 (finishing on 28-32 points). They face a brutal run with top teams like the Bulldogs and Storm; upsets there (e.g., Eels or Rabbitohs winning) would cap the Roosters at 30 or below.
• Broncos (28 points, remaining games: Dolphins home, Knights away, Cowboys away, Storm home) lose 2-3 of their 4 (finishing on 28-32 points). Losses to the Dolphins (if Dolphins are motivated), Cowboys (QLD derby), and Storm (tough home finale) could drop them to 30 or less.
• Sharks (28 points, remaining games: Dragons away, Titans home, bye—worth 2 points, Knights home, Bulldogs away) lose 2-3 of their 3 playable games (finishing on 30-34 points, including bye). The bye gives them a free 2 points, so they need to drop games against the Dragons, Titans, Knights, or Bulldogs to stay vulnerable.
If the Broncos and Sharks win 2+ each, they’ll likely secure 32+ points and lock in spots, making it harder for Manly. Lower teams like the Dragons (remaining: Sharks home, Titans away, Sea Eagles home, Panthers away) or Tigers (remaining: Sea Eagles home, bye, Eels away, Cowboys home) would need to win all remaining while Manly collapses, which is improbable but could pressure if they upset contenders.
Estimated Premiership Points to Hold a Top 8 Position
Based on current standings, predictions, and historical trends (where 8th place typically requires 28-32 points in recent seasons), around 30 points is the minimum estimated threshold for a top 8 spot in 2025. This accounts for the remaining 4 games most teams have—current 8th (Roosters at 28) could reach 36 if they win all, but projections suggest 8th will land around 30-32 after upsets and form dips. Teams like the top 5 are already safe at 30+, while the bubble teams (6th-10th) will push the cutoff higher if they perform well.
For and Against Points Needed to Suit Manly
Manly’s differential (-10) is a major weakness compared to rivals (Dolphins ~+71, Roosters ~+120, Broncos +104, Sharks +35). In case of a points tie for 8th, the team with the better differential advances, so Manly would almost certainly lose ties. To improve their chances:
• They need to win their remaining games by large margins (e.g., +20 or more per win) to boost their differential to +10 or better—realistically requiring ~+40-50 across 3-4 wins (e.g., high-scoring attacks while holding opponents under 10 points).
• Rivals must suffer heavy losses to worsen their differentials (e.g., Dolphins or Roosters conceding 30+ points in defeats, dropping their +70-120 to below Manly’s improved figure).
• Avoid low-scoring wins or losses, as their recent form (e.g., scoring only 12 vs. Raiders while conceding 28) has hurt their diff further.
Overall, Manly’s path relies on a perfect run (winning all 4, including upsets over Dolphins and Warriors) combined with 2-3 losses each for the Dolphins, Roosters, Broncos, and Sharks. Their chance is estimated at under 10% post-recent losses, but rugby league’s unpredictability keeps it possible.
