I'm often impressed with your analyses but don't fully agree with this one. Yes Chooks ambushed and belted Manly bigtime and I too thought we were heading for a 50 point obliteration.
But I don't agree they simply put the cue in the rack. Manly started pushing back and especially in the second half Chooks had to dig very deep to defend their line. To their credit they did.
And they were far ahead and in no danger of losing...but ...they felt they needed a killer blow, and under fatigue or duress from Manly's assaults they fluffed it, 3 times, which in the end did put them in danger, albeit for a few minutes.
I agree the bounce of the ball favouring Chooks was a by-product of their strong play but the same can be said for our intercepts. A player often throws those after they've been put under pressure or fatigue, and manly did put them under duress, which is why they didn't have the energy to finish us off. They would have loved to score more than 6 points in the second half but weren't able to.
I do agree Manly was soundly thrashed on the night (by 4 points, lol) but I don't discount the significance of Manly's fightback either. If we play them again our players will know what to expect, although whether they can do anything about it is another matter of course.
Feels a bit like the Penrith away game, which was 6 tries to 5 but the difference felt bigger.
I do think intercept tries should still be worth 4 points though, good enough for Panthers to win a recent grand final with one!
🙂