At halfback, I want to make a case for Manly's Michael Monaghan. His four games at No.7 for Manly this season produced an undefeated run against enormous odds. Go back to his game against the Bulldogs a month ago and you'll see a competitive, tough, relentless and inspirational leader.
His tally of metres gained from long kicks ranks second in the NRL for all halfbacks this season and his 11 try assists ranks equal first. His hooker experience means he can get to dummy-half and work in tandem with Buderus to exploit Queensland's defence around the middle.
Brett Kimmorley has been tried too often without success. The Panthers' Craig Gower is not in good form and his record at this level does not warrant special treatment.
Matt Orford had his chance to impress in the City-Country game last year and was disappointing. He wasn't selected this year. His most recent performance for Manly was against the Johnathan Thurston-inspired Cowboys and the Queenslander towelled him up to lead the Cowboys to a huge upset victory.
NSW selectors will probably go with Orford, and if they do I'll support him, but if I were coach I would take the tigerish persistence and courage of Monaghan over the occasional brilliance of Orford. For my game plan, Monaghan is perfect.
I'd select Kurt Gidley on the bench as my fourth reserve and he would be an important part of the game. I would interchange him with Buderus and Monaghan to continue the double-barrelled dummy-half attack on the Queensland forwards. Gidley has been outstanding in this role for the Knights this season and his combination with Buderus in this manner opened my eyes to the prospects of this strategy.
Monaghan, Anasta and Gidley have terrific long kicking games and all three are great kick chasers.
The Maroons are raging hot favourites. I can't see why they deserve this dominance in bookmakers' markets. It's an even-money bet for mine.
Queenslanders are formidable opponents but not unbeatable.
For a start, favouritism will not help Queensland. Origin football doesn't work for them unless they are underdogs and people are writing them off.
Second, I think NSW lost the series last year more than Queensland won it. After four undefeated years, the Blues fumbled their way through the second and third games, and it was our own poor play and crucial errors that invited Queensland to snatch victory. The players and coach will be highly motivated to make up for that lost opportunity with better preparation and game-day execution.
Finally, when I break down their team into smaller parts, I'm confident we can come up with the players and a game plan to win.
People keep pointing to the Queensland back line as their passport to success. They speak in awe of halves Thurston and Darren Lockyer and their ability to ignite a back line including players such as Karmichael Hunt, Brent Tate, Justin Hodges and Greg Inglis.
But I'm confident we have the defensive capabilities in the back line to meet these challenges.
Matt King and Matt Cooper should be the centres. Both are big and strong with the expertise to defend up and in to close down the Queensland ball movement.
Jamie Lyon is a fine player and did well for NSW as a youngster a few years ago. Then he became stale and left the game, went overseas to play in the weaker English league, and since returning to Australia he's received an undeserved armchair ride back into representative football.
I like either Jarryd Hayne or Eric Grothe on the left wing and I would push for the goal-kicking talents of Hazem El Masri on the right wing. El Masri will save tries and he will kick goals. That could be all the difference in what will no doubt be a closely contested series.
Play them in the forwards, keep the game up-tempo, drive them crazy from dummy-half, kick long, chase hard, back our fitness, believe in our defence . . . This will take their fancy back line right out of the game.
I love this plan and with it I know this team could go to Brisbane and win the first game of the series.
Source: The Sun-Herald
Phil Gould again.