When it comes to Dummy Halves, Simpkin's D is up there with Frog.
Bit of a Squeeze on the screenshot sorry, but Simpkin's Minutes Played far-left near logo and Tackles Made far right column. Trust me when I say efficiency is not an issue (93.5%, with most tackles made of all 9's - bar Lawton who is just in a different league to the established 9s with his positional flexibility)
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Simpkin's crisp delivery of dummy service is not a measurable stat, so you gotta decide if Frog or Simp have the better service from the ruck - arguably Simpkin straightens our attack more than Frog and GCKT adds a bit more uncertainty than Frog does, which might make the defensive line less structured.
Neither Frog nor Jake run it from the ruck a lot, it's obviously a tactical choice from the Coach - and given our speed out wide the alternative of shifting to the edges fast is seen as viable. It has paid off this year you could argue. Gordie is a little terrier though, and has easily the best proportional return on dummy runs, post-contact metres and average metres in general.
Comparing our 9 options based on running metres:
- Simpkin 92m over 6 games
- GCKT 142m over 7 games, usually < 30mins played (Rooters game 50+ minutes played, arugably his best)
- Croker 121m over 9 games - yet Croker is the only 9 to have scored tries
So GCKT runs it the most, Simpkin is the mid point, and Croker runs the least but has the most meat-pies.
PS Lawton tops them all, in all stats bar tries scored. He has played every game this year in 4 different positions. Seibold has unlocked Lawton's utility in 2024. But, given his minutes/position is inconsitent week to week, it is hard to judge in a side-by-side - other than to say Lawton has been epic this year without injuries getting in the way. He will arguably be a bigger loss next year than Dylan Walker to Warriors was from our 14 a couple of years ago, IMO.
Tackle efficiency:
- Simpkin 93.5% on 302 tackled made
- Croker 89.5% on 272 tackles
- Gordie 92.7% on 101 tackles
- (Lawton 94.3% on 462 tackles...)
So what does that leave us with?
- Gordie runs the most and averages the most metres in limited minutes played per-game - arguably he is the most effective attacking 9 in the way he is used off the bench as an impact 9
- Simpkin has seemingly the highest workrate on the the defensive front when playing big minutes, and even out-tackles JakeT with a decent efficiency (not to be sniffed at given the minutes and engine of NSW Captain and 23min-per-SOO-game JakeT!), with an exception in the Rooters game where Simpkin seemed to miss a fair few, and GCKT played an unusally larger amt of minutes, possibly due to Simpkin having an off night
- Frog is comparable to both in different ways; inferior to Simpkin Defensively on the limited scope of 2024, and offers less offensive capability than GCKT in 2024, but has unmeasurable leadership impact the younger guys don't and has managed to score tries in the early season at critical times (Rabbits/Rooters), so his attacking decisions result in points at critical times of the game
So if you think baseline stats are everything, arguably Simpkin starts and Gordie is our 14. Unless you feel Simpkin was over-delivering in his first 5 games (new club, statement to make etc), and the Roosters game is a better reflection of where Simpkin is - in which case Frog is a no-brainer start, with Gordie as most viable 14.
Stats don't take into account the quality of Simpkin's service from Dummy-half, the momentum of Gordie's runs from dummy at the time he chooses to make them, or the tenacity, heart and leadership-capable motivation of Croker's input on overall team performance. Some invisible stats that boil down to perception, momentum and untrackable metrics.
Regardless, It's not a bad position to be in from a purely team-tactical position:
- Croker needs to make a return from an awkward injury at some point, and this weekend is the perfect scenario to do it.
- He was injured in the Canberrra game, and returns against them - close the loop
- He is a product of the Canberra system with a famous Raiders name, and is in a position to contribute to the (potential) end of the Raider's season
- We get the return of one of our team leaders at a critical time of the year, where there are no more rep-related interruptions
- If it doesn't work out, we have contingencies in the 2 other listed 9's, and an exceptional Lawton as an alternative option
- We have been crying out for 9's since the Manase/Api dream-team and now we arguably have 4 reasonable options to choose from
- Even if we lose to the Raiders this week, we are still in the 8 as the teams in 9th are 3pts behind us - so we can't drop out of the 8 regardless, and despite our away record not being stellar this year we have only Bulldogs/Tigers away rest of the season - we surely win against the Tigers given we have 3/4 of their previous squad in our team now, and Bulldogs (followed by Sharks at home to finish season) is at least a good taste of Finals footy in both a Away/Home format
It's the right time to bring Croker back. The upside of an impactful return outweigh the downside in that it gives us options in a position we have sucked in since Manase/Api. If Croker kills it and we put the Raiders away at home, we are all but assured of Finals with the return of a key spine player we have been missing for 3-4 months.
Optimally, Croker returns as our 1st-pick 9 with Simpkin/Gordie interchangeable depending on the opposition, which inspires some competition between the youngsters. This assumes however that Lawton is already either a starting Backrower, or on the bench as a Fwd interchange - else he is better bang for buck than any of them.
