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The Run home

Discussion in 'Rugby League Forum' started by Berkeley_Eagle, Jul 19, 2013.

  1. Berkeley_Eagle

    Berkeley_Eagle Current Status: 24/7 Manly Fan 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    ORIGIN is done and dusted for another year and we now resume normal transmission.

    Eight weeks to go, eight spots up for grabs.

    And for the first time since 2008, an analysis of the draw reveals that 30 points will probably be required to make the top eight.

    The Broncos, Newcastle and Manly have grabbed eighth spot with 28 points in the previous three seasons.

    Not this year, because the teams down the bottom like Parramatta are going so badly, the top sides are winning more often.

    For the Eels, the season looks like going from bad to worse.

    Only a late-year salary cap scandal will stop them from winning their second wooden spoon in two years. Not surprisingly the TAB rates them at $1.15 to finish with the most losses.Here's how I see the rest of the teams.

    RABBITOHS (1st)

    Even without Greg Inglis, the Bunnies look absolute certainties to win the minor premiership and it's no surprise the TAB has them at $1.20 to collect the J.J. Giltinan Shield.

    Have more depth than any other club and will welcome the return of Chris McQueen and Ben Te'o from Origin duty with the Maroons.

    ROOSTERS (2nd)

    Shouldn't have too much trouble wrapping up second spot considering their outstanding recent form, despite Origin interruptions.

    The return of Blues halves Mitch Pearce and James Maloney plus centre Michael Jennings puts them in great shape for the run home.

    SEA EAGLES (3rd)

    Warming up and finding form at the right time of the year and will welcome back big guns Anthony Watmough and Daly Cherry-Evans.

    Have the softest draw of any of the major contenders with four teams outside the top eight in the next month.

    STORM (4th)

    Have a much-needed bye this week to give Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Ryan Hoffman time to recover.

    They have only three home games left but have the class to lock in a position in the top four after 26 rounds.

    BULLDOGS (5th)

    Finding form at the business end of the season, as shown with the thumping win over Storm, But may have left their run too late for the top four.

    Josh Morris returns from Origin, Ben Barba is ready to explode and having the bye this week will freshen them up for the run home.

    SHARKS (6th)

    Have the worst for-and-against of all the leading sides but will get Paul Gallen, Andrew Fifita and Luke Lewis back in the next fortnight.

    Todd Carney has found some explosive form and Michael Gordon is back from a long injury spell. No sighting of Harold Holt but should make the finals.

    KNIGHTS (7th)

    Have only three home games in the final eight rounds and face tough on-the-road assignments against Panthers and Roosters in the next two games.

    Play the under-performing Broncos twice in the run home, the Cowboys and a "gimme" against the Eels at home before the semi-finals.

    MARSHALL OFF TO 'BORING' RUGBY

    RAIDERS (8th)

    Will need to win five of their last eight games to be assured of making the finals and much could depend on the return of game-breaking centre Blake Ferguson.

    The Raiders have five games at home, where they have been almost unbeatable in recent times. Having the Eels and the Dragons in the next two games helps.

    PANTHERS (9th)

    Without doubt the biggest over-achievers. Gus Gould told us all to be patient because he had a five-year plan but Ivan Cleary has done a wonderful job to lift them into finals contention.

    Will find it tougher in the run home now that all their rivals are back to full strength with their Origin players.

    WARRIORS (10th)

    Have taken advantage of the unlevel playing field that allows the Kiwis to be at full strength while most of their rivals are seriously depleted by Origin commitments.

    Capable of upsetting any side on their day but, like Penrith, will find it tougher now that most sides are full strength.

    TITANS (11th)

    Even the return of Greg Bird and Nate Myles from Origin probably won't be enough to lift them into the finals.

    Have only three games left at home and face the Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Bulldogs in the next four weeks.

    COWBOYS (12th)

    Johnathan Thurston is an absolute superstar but not even he can save what has been a disastrous campaign.

    They would have to win every game to finish on 30.

    The only thing in their favour is that five of their last seven game are at home in Townsville plus the return of Test props Matt Scott and James Tamou.

    BRONCOS (13th)

    Another club that would need to win every game to make the playoffs and that's not going to happen, even allowing for their softer draw.

    Having the bye this week will freshen up their Origin stars but have left their run far too late.DRAGONS (14th)

    A terrible season isn't about to get much better.

    The Rabbitohs, Raiders and Roosters over the next three weeks is a seriously tough draw.

    Steve Price would be better off trialling some new faces and experimenting for next season.

    The only positive is playing the Tigers and Eels in the last three rounds.

    TIGERS (15th)

    Have one of the toughest runs home of any of the 16 clubs. Who would want to play the Sea Eagles, Souths and Roosters at the back end of the season?The Tigers have become far more competitive in recent weeks but don't have the troops to launch a serious charge for eighth position.

    EELS (Last)

    Who would have thought Parramatta could go any worse than last season when they finished with the wooden spoon.

    At least last year they finished the season with 16 competition points.

    Even with Jarryd Hayne to make a comeback, I wouldn't be tipping them to win any of their remaining eight games of the season.
     
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  2. Daddycool08

    Daddycool08 Well-Known Member

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  3. Garts

    Garts Well-Known Member

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    I do not think we will only lose 1 more game. I tip us to finish 4th or 5th.
     
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  4. Ralphie

    Ralphie Well-Known Member Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    We will lose two more games and still finish 3rd with better for and against than the filthy purple scum.
     
  5. Chip and Chase

    Chip and Chase True Supporter Staff Member Administrator Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    If we win 7 from 8 on the run home then I will be stoked
     
  6. Berkeley_Eagle

    Berkeley_Eagle Current Status: 24/7 Manly Fan 2016 Tipping Competitor

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  7. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Well-Known Member

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    Yep, 7 of 8 could mean a deep run in the finals for us.

    We're starting to get some good form but I'm not convinced yet. Going to be a very interesting couple of months.
     
  8. BOZO

    BOZO Well-Known Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I cant see us losing another game Chippy
     
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  9. KOMORI

    KOMORI Born and bred an Eagle

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    I keep getting this awesome feel that we've not yet really clicked this year, but are beginning to show the signs..... And no one beats us at our best.

    Undefeated until we hold the trophy for mine :)
     
  10. Clint

    Clint . Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    this game will determine whether we finish 3rd or 4th
     
  11. Supernintendo Chalmers

    Supernintendo Chalmers Well-Known Member

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    I'll be more convinced once we get through this soft draw with all wins, then also knock over rabbits and storm.
    if we only drop 2 more I'll be happy, but I want to beat those top teams pre-semi's just for that extra confidence.

    that roosters vs rabbits last round clash will be both their NSW Cup teams running out i reckon if they do have 1 & 2 secured by then.
     
  12. Chip and Chase

    Chip and Chase True Supporter Staff Member Administrator Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I hope you are right Boze. By the way I had the pleasure of running into your namesake at Origin on Wednesday night, nice guy who even indulged me with a photo. Not often you get to meet a real life Immortal.
     
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  13. Clint

    Clint . Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Photo C&C.
     
  14. BOZO

    BOZO Well-Known Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I was lucky to meet the legend as well but not as lucky as you to have a photo taken . Well done!!!
     
  15. mickqld

    mickqld Sack Greenslime 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Finish 3rd or 4th doesn't matter. It's either Rabbits at Homebush or Roosters at SFS and if we finished 1 or 2 and they were 3 or 4 it'd be no different. How unfair Is that.
     
  16. SeaEagleRock8

    SeaEagleRock8 Sea Eagle Lach Staff Member Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I was just pondering this same scenario @mickqld

    Provided we finish 3rd or 4th we will have a great shot, because our 1st finals match should be in Sydney (against either Bunnies or Chooks), and if we win, we are straight to the grand final qualifier. In Sydney. After a weeks rest.

    The only spanner in the works would be Storm sneaking into the top 2, but that isn't likely at this stage.

    Hence, everything should be aimed at preparing to win that 1st big semi, hopefully against a stage-struck opponent. In previous years finishing 3rd or 4th was much worse than top 2, but this time it won't really disadvantage us, so far as I can see.
     
  17. Andy 1972

    Andy 1972 Active Member

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    Four more wins to secure top 8, and probably 6 wins to be in the top 4. I think we can win 7 of the 8 if we keep showing the form of the last two weeks. 8 from 8 would be fantastic, and what a way to enter the finals. We would have everyone scared of playing us.

    Andy1972
    Manly Forever.
     
  18. lsz

    lsz Well-Known Member Staff Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Not sure either team would be stage struck

    Last year the bunnies were in the gf qualifier and it was only a couple of years ago the roosters went to the gf
     
  19. stewartbrett(female supporter)

    stewartbrett(female supporter) Active Member

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    I just had a quick look at the run home for our boys on Manly's website and I'd say that the test will begin from round 22 when we face the warriors. From round 22 onwards we will be up against all the top 8 sides; the rabbitohs and the storm included. I'm just a bit worried about the clash with the rabbitohs. And the storm are a close second.

    I wouldn't mind a 3rd spot finish if by some miracle Manly manages to overtake the storm if the storm shockingly looses a game. But you need to remember that even if Manly do win all of their remaining games- or at least most of them- you still have to pay close attention to how the teams above them go.

    I don't think sides like the rabbitohs, roosters and the storm are going to give up their spot to let Manly leapfrog them on the ladder.

    Some of you will most likely find this stupid but which ever team is just two points above Manly at some stage, I kind of give Manly a bit of help to climb up the ladder by checking what team that side has- occasionally it's a side that's in the bottom half of the table. For instance, Melbourne Storm are currently in 3rd spot on 27 points and Manly's on 25 points. Melbourne are up against the warriors next round. So if Melbourne, by some miracle looses, and Manly wins their clash, Manly will jump Melbourne into third spot.

    Well that's my description of how I help Manly up the ladder. Go on. you can say it. That's just ridiculous!!! You're welcome to think that, but occasionally, it works. Take the round that's just wrapped up. Round 19. The sharks were threatening to take 4th spot from Manly being just 1 point behind them and they were coming up against the roosters. It didn't matter if it meant that the roosters were going to be so many points ahead of Manly if they (the roosters won) just so long as Manly would stay in 4th spot. In the end, the roosters, indeed, won. That's so ridiculous!!! You're probably saying again.
     
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  20. SeaEagleRock8

    SeaEagleRock8 Sea Eagle Lach Staff Member Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Hey, you said it, not me :D
     

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