Surprising Manly Stats 2016

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It is true that trimmed means do have some valid uses. Like:
1. In judging of Olympic style events where you know before you start that some judges will openly and shamelessly cheat to get their country the medals.
2. Where you can't decide whether to use the mean or median so you bastardise both. Sort of like not being able to decide between a cup of coffee or tea, so you order a weak coffee with a used teabag.
3. Where you don't like the story the stats reveal, so you look for some obscure statistical theory (presumably devised by someone watching Olympic judges do their stuff) to justify your manipulation of data to fit what you want the stats to have said.
 
Put it this way, lussick isn't in my supercoach side and isn't likely to be anytime soon. That's the only stats that matter.

Does this help?

upload_2016-3-29_5-53-37.png


If not, what stats would help? Of course, this is only the Manly stats.
 
STAT FIGHT!!!

Anyone who followed the development of advanced metrics in say baseball would know that at the end of the day, they help but there are some things they don't show up like the guy who can post good numbers but who is a jerk and who is loathed by his team.

Bit of stats + bit of the old eye test = most complete analysis
 
Here's an article from the Daily Telegraph that I remember reading on how Hasler helped Manly to the 2011 premiership. Nice read about how he works with player statistics...

Stat breakthrough that won Manly comp
AT the end of 2010, Des Hasler knew he needed to improve Manly, who had finished eighth-and-out in the first week of the finals.

This made Hasler no different from every other NRL coach. What made him different was the manner in which Hasler did it.

The Sea Eagles went from 25-1 outsiders at the season's start to premiers ... and in doing so just might have changed the game forever.While Hasler was thinking and worrying, in the backrooms at Manly video analyst Will Badel was punching information into his computer, recording every statistic measurable, on every player, over the previous four seasons.

Working with NRL Stats' Andrew Moufarridge, he crunched the numbers, calculated them, weighted them and sprinkled a little magic dust on them. Out of that he came up with what he called the Contributor Value Rating (CVR).

This is how revolutions begin; with a small idea under a dim light.

The CVR ratings are rugby league's version of Moneyball - a philosophy changing the way some view not only baseball, but other sports around the world as its influence spreads. The CVR was the secret behind Manly's improvement.

Like Moneyball, Badel said the CVR "removes the reputation of players".

The Moneyball concept basically grew from this: when choosing their fantasy league teams, computer geeks discovered that the lightly regarded statistic On Base Percentage had far more sway on a team's success than Batting Averages, which were traditionally regarded as the recruitment standard by scouts.

Considering this, the Oakland A's ignored a century of baseball lore and scouting reputations to instead trust what the computer told them when drafting players, and a funny thing happened: they started winning.
The CVR similarly cuts through reputation and considered thinking to rate players' efforts per minute of every game, revealing exactly where shortfalls are happening and so where improvements can be made.

And it appears to be standing the test of time. NRL Stats has tracked every NRL game from 2007, as well as every Origin game played, every grand final back to 1966 and last season's Toyota Cup competition.

Through all those games, no player has rated higher than Johnny Raper's performance in the '66 grand final against Balmain, where he ran for 246m - 99m more than the next best player - among other highs.

When you compare it to the game's most recent five-star performance - Paul Gallen's 80-minute effort in Origin II this season - Raper's reputation as arguably the game's greatest is only reinforced.

Raper scored a CVR of 9.25, against Gallen's 7.75. And while some will argue that stats can be made to show anything, Hasler's conviction that the CVR was relevant, and his use of it to improve Manly from outsiders to premiers in a season, gives it legitimacy. So accurate are they that Moufarridge can almost guarantee finals and a top-four appearance if certain levels are met.

"If you want to make the top eight you have to have 13 players playing above the level of three," Moufarridge said.

"If you want to make the top four you have to have 13 players playing above the level of four. There is no more being able to carry a good winger, a good fullback, a strike player who will score you tries if he is not contributing to your team."


The three clubs that consistently had a dozen scoring four or above in recent seasons were, not surprisingly, Manly, Melbourne and St George Illawarra.

And while the information was available to almost three-quarters of the clubs last season, and will be to all 16 next year, not all believed in it.

Except Hasler and NSW coach Ricky Stuart, who was the first to employ Badel 10 years ago and used it to guide his Origin selections.

"Des was always extremely supportive, not only of taking the information I came up with but also being confident enough to use it. To use it with players, face to face," Badel said.

"Everybody knows that Des would leave no stone unturned, but this is where he had the confidence in me and the system to say we're going to start implementing this as KPI markers."

Hasler was able to break his players' games down to the smallest effort, or lack of effort, and then marry the science with the dark art of coaching instinct.

In essence, stats are measured in traditional areas such as tackles and tries scored, linebreaks and handling errors, but also in lesser considered statistics like slow play-the-balls, ineffective tackles and linebreak causes. There are 50 in all.

Once weighted, the figure is divided by the number of minutes played, giving a score that holds up under the greatest scrutiny.

Manly, quite simply, didn't have enough players scoring high enough.

So with Badel's guidance, Hasler broke down each player's game and compared them with their rivals to tell them specifically where they needed to improve.

It was all there in front of him.

For instance, after a poor season (by his standards) Badel pointed out Anthony Watmough had dropped from 6.34 in 2009 to 4.36 in 2010, his performances affected by ill-discipline revealed in poor play-the-balls, lazy tackle efforts and penalties conceded.Watmough concentrated on improving these specific areas of his game while continuing to do everything else he normally did, and his CVR lifted to 5.54.

It might have been missed that in the process, around winning that unlikely premiership, he regained his NSW and Australian spots.
 
I love how stats can tell what ever story you want them to. Come and talk to me about lussick when you have a decent sample space.

I'll be keen to see this resurrected in round 20 and see what it looks like.
Absolutely. I have no interest in player's stats as they aren't worth the paper they are printed on unless they are prepared using methods like @Loobs alluded to earlier.

I watch the game and look at the efforts of the players. With regard to forwards I look at how they go against the opposition pack. Whether they bend the line. How they defend.

The Stats as they are don't tell the story. Watch the game and see who dominates. That's the only stat that matters.
 
Here's an article from the Daily Telegraph that I remember reading on how Hasler helped Manly to the 2011 premiership. Nice read about how he works with player statistics...

Stat breakthrough that won Manly comp
AT the end of 2010, Des Hasler knew he needed to improve Manly, who had finished eighth-and-out in the first week of the finals.

This made Hasler no different from every other NRL coach. What made him different was the manner in which Hasler did it.

The Sea Eagles went from 25-1 outsiders at the season's start to premiers ... and in doing so just might have changed the game forever.While Hasler was thinking and worrying, in the backrooms at Manly video analyst Will Badel was punching information into his computer, recording every statistic measurable, on every player, over the previous four seasons.

Working with NRL Stats' Andrew Moufarridge, he crunched the numbers, calculated them, weighted them and sprinkled a little magic dust on them. Out of that he came up with what he called the Contributor Value Rating (CVR).

This is how revolutions begin; with a small idea under a dim light.

The CVR ratings are rugby league's version of Moneyball - a philosophy changing the way some view not only baseball, but other sports around the world as its influence spreads. The CVR was the secret behind Manly's improvement.

Like Moneyball, Badel said the CVR "removes the reputation of players".

The Moneyball concept basically grew from this: when choosing their fantasy league teams, computer geeks discovered that the lightly regarded statistic On Base Percentage had far more sway on a team's success than Batting Averages, which were traditionally regarded as the recruitment standard by scouts.

Considering this, the Oakland A's ignored a century of baseball lore and scouting reputations to instead trust what the computer told them when drafting players, and a funny thing happened: they started winning.
The CVR similarly cuts through reputation and considered thinking to rate players' efforts per minute of every game, revealing exactly where shortfalls are happening and so where improvements can be made.

And it appears to be standing the test of time. NRL Stats has tracked every NRL game from 2007, as well as every Origin game played, every grand final back to 1966 and last season's Toyota Cup competition.

Through all those games, no player has rated higher than Johnny Raper's performance in the '66 grand final against Balmain, where he ran for 246m - 99m more than the next best player - among other highs.

When you compare it to the game's most recent five-star performance - Paul Gallen's 80-minute effort in Origin II this season - Raper's reputation as arguably the game's greatest is only reinforced.

Raper scored a CVR of 9.25, against Gallen's 7.75. And while some will argue that stats can be made to show anything, Hasler's conviction that the CVR was relevant, and his use of it to improve Manly from outsiders to premiers in a season, gives it legitimacy. So accurate are they that Moufarridge can almost guarantee finals and a top-four appearance if certain levels are met.

"If you want to make the top eight you have to have 13 players playing above the level of three," Moufarridge said.

"If you want to make the top four you have to have 13 players playing above the level of four. There is no more being able to carry a good winger, a good fullback, a strike player who will score you tries if he is not contributing to your team."


The three clubs that consistently had a dozen scoring four or above in recent seasons were, not surprisingly, Manly, Melbourne and St George Illawarra.

And while the information was available to almost three-quarters of the clubs last season, and will be to all 16 next year, not all believed in it.

Except Hasler and NSW coach Ricky Stuart, who was the first to employ Badel 10 years ago and used it to guide his Origin selections.

"Des was always extremely supportive, not only of taking the information I came up with but also being confident enough to use it. To use it with players, face to face," Badel said.

"Everybody knows that Des would leave no stone unturned, but this is where he had the confidence in me and the system to say we're going to start implementing this as KPI markers."

Hasler was able to break his players' games down to the smallest effort, or lack of effort, and then marry the science with the dark art of coaching instinct.

In essence, stats are measured in traditional areas such as tackles and tries scored, linebreaks and handling errors, but also in lesser considered statistics like slow play-the-balls, ineffective tackles and linebreak causes. There are 50 in all.

Once weighted, the figure is divided by the number of minutes played, giving a score that holds up under the greatest scrutiny.

Manly, quite simply, didn't have enough players scoring high enough.

So with Badel's guidance, Hasler broke down each player's game and compared them with their rivals to tell them specifically where they needed to improve.

It was all there in front of him.

For instance, after a poor season (by his standards) Badel pointed out Anthony Watmough had dropped from 6.34 in 2009 to 4.36 in 2010, his performances affected by ill-discipline revealed in poor play-the-balls, lazy tackle efforts and penalties conceded.Watmough concentrated on improving these specific areas of his game while continuing to do everything else he normally did, and his CVR lifted to 5.54.

It might have been missed that in the process, around winning that unlikely premiership, he regained his NSW and Australian spots.
So, if Des was so smart, why did he recruit T-Rex for Canterbury?
 
Do you refer to any "domination index" in your judgement of player performance @Frank ?
Sure do. In golf they call it the "smash factor".

Hit-up speed divided by line speed. Smash factor is the amount of energy transferred from the player that hits it up to the player defending. The resulting number is now known as the "Domination Index".

The higher the number the better the domination index. Of course negative numbers are possible. This is known as getting smashed.
 
Jeez, Give Myles a break guys @:D

Hes a work horse and a leader not a super star. he keeps the engine running and is a calming influence on the boys onfield. Give him time, can only get better.
 
93m and 36 tackles per game is ok.

Allows us to use Vave and Lussick in smaller sharper bursts.

Make Lussick and Vave do 36 tackles and their attack would drop off immensely as well, Keep them where they are working well.
 
Lawrence - 9.28m per run.
Myles - 9.2m per run.
Mateo - 7.2m per run. (Skewed, lots of sideways floating runs as a half/ball player)
Taupau - 10.66m per run.
Trbojevic - 8.08m per run.
Symonds - 8.33m per run.
Brown - 9.33m per run.
Starling - 8.71m per run.
Lussick - 12.42m per run.
Vave - 9.3m per run.
Leary - 7.2m per run.
Burgess - 8.66m per run.

Myles, Lawrence, Taupau - All above average for the minutes and roles, although I'd like to see more output from Myles. (Yes, I understand we've not had the ball much to begin games this season, this is why I won't call for him to be benched or cry foul about this form.)

Mateo and Brown. Have been forced to switch roles before and during games, we can't really use the small sample to judge them, although Brown is still putting up decent numbers, outliers excluded.)

Vave, Lussick - Doing exactly what you want your bench guys who play minimal minutes to do.

Burgess, Starling - Plodders.

Leary, Symonds - I'm a little underwhelmed, but it's early. Especially Symonds, his output is 3 runs per match.

Trbojevic - Does the grunt yards, doesn't always bend the line, but doesn't get dominated. Making a lot more runs per match than the rest. Not fussed with his low m/run, he's made the second most tackles in the NRL per game at 44.3 a match.
 
Then the apparent best pack in the comp.

James Graham - 8.6
Sam Kasiano - 8.9
Josh Jackson - 7.33
Aiden Tolman - 7.87
Tony Williams - 10
Greg Eastwood - 8.42
Tim Browne - 9.28
David Klemmer - 9.56

Lawrence/Myles/Trbojevic - Outplaying their Bulldogs equivalent of Graham/Tolman/Eastwood (Although Graham and Tolman play longer mins, their output is a lot higher - Also helps when you've got the ball a lot more than us)
Williams v Taupau - Very good numbers from both in similar roles, but Marty has him covered.

Jackson v Brown/Symonds/Leary - Brown needs that edge full time, he'd have Jackson covered easily.

Benches - Klemmer has been magnificant, making over 150m per game. He's the outlier. Otherwise Lussick/Vave are putting out good numbers.

Starling/Burgess - Just do not cut it.


We keep improving, and play with more than 45% of the ball, out numbers and forwards will be fine.
 
Throw these stats in the bin. Because apparently Lussick is awesome and Jake T is a dud. Statistics Statistics and more dam lies
 

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