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Who leaves in 2020?

Jacinta Martin

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Good thread .... I think we will feel some pain .... it is where the dreaded front and rear end loading contracts becomes the only real option of "honest" teams to keep a squad together for that 2 year Premiership window .... and where ... I hate to say it .... bargain players like T-Rex become important .....

If, as several good judges predict ..... Keppie, Paseka, Sipley, Guacomole, Suli, et al all have good seasons we will have to call Dessie Merlin if he can keep them all .........

Every team needs a core of worker bees around the big money stars ...... The big question is ..... which players in our current squad other than T-Rex ... will be on a low contract next year ????
What's considered big money?
We all know about the obvious ones but some of those worker bees are probably on good $$ and on way more than what we are aware of. That's was my suggestion re performing and underperforming.
 

Woodsie

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What's considered big money?
We all know about the obvious ones but some of those worker bees are probably on good $$ and on way more than what we are aware of. That's was my suggestion re performing and underperforming.
Big money is relative .... 30 players on $300k is 9 million .... when you have say 3 players on over a mil each ... and say another 4 or 5 players on between $400k and $600k ...... then you need a group of players on much less ..... say $150k each ......

Problem is ..... which of our players on going to be happy on that coin .... most of them are performing above that level .... or are expected to ........

Your point of performing is valid .... unfortuneatly it will probably come down to affordability rather than desireability .....

The wonders of the salary cap ....
 

maxta

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Big money is relative .... 30 players on $300k is 9 million .... when you have say 3 players on over a mil each ... and say another 4 or 5 players on between $400k and $600k ...... then you need a group of players on much less ..... say $150k each ......

Problem is ..... which of our players on going to be happy on that coin .... most of them are performing above that level .... or are expected to ........

Your point of performing is valid .... unfortuneatly it will probably come down to affordability rather than desireability .....

The wonders of the salary cap ....
Simple Woodsie - we hire the Roosters accountant for a day....sign all these blokes and still have 2.3 million leftover...
 

SeaEagleRock8

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Big money is relative .... 30 players on $300k is 9 million .... when you have say 3 players on over a mil each ... and say another 4 or 5 players on between $400k and $600k ...... then you need a group of players on much less ..... say $150k each ......

Problem is ..... which of our players on going to be happy on that coin .... most of them are performing above that level .... or are expected to ........

Your point of performing is valid .... unfortuneatly it will probably come down to affordability rather than desireability .....

The wonders of the salary cap ....
Pretty sure the smarter clubs would be working to some system about using the cap, eg, this thought from last year in the Salary-cap-management-have-a-crack thread
I hear a lot of people say you can’t have 3 million-dollar players in your squad but I disagree. As of 2020 the cap will be $9.8 million for the Top 30, with a minimum wage of $110,000

No reason you can’t have about 8 top-line players. Most of these 8 you would try to keep as the key, culture setting core of the playing squad, looking several seasons ahead.

‘A’ list - DCE and the Turbos on an average of 1mil each .................. 3 mil

‘B’ - Marty, Walker, Api, Joel, AFB on an average of 600k ..................3 mil

C – for example, 12 players on an average of about 190 k ...............2.28 mil

D – another 10 on an average of 150k ..............................................1.5 mil

Total .................................................................................................... 9.78


C and D would be a combination of

* players loyal to the club because they are juniors or some other reason - Jorge, Parker, Cust & co

* solid journeymen who will buy into the culture because, for example, you’re giving them a 2nd chance – Croker, Jetski, Elliott types

* a batch of up and coming potential stars, who have not yet done anything of note in top grade but who are almost ready for a shot – Fainu, Paseka, Funa, and the like

The trick is to every year be able to promote to the top grade at least one or 2 from the C or D category, and get one - or ideally two - good seasons out of them while they are still on a C or D wage.

After that, if they have proved their worth, either upgrade them to B (such as Fainu, Siro), which will probably mean releasing one of the current B players (Api, Joel), or else let them move on to a high paid opportunity elsewhere. Either way, it frees up a spot for a new C or D level player, a youngster of potential or a former gun looking for redemption.


Of course, there are many variables but as a basic premise I think this is manageable. It depends on keeping your team an attractive option for the next wave of C and D level players looking for an opportunity, not easy to do, but it should be exactly where Manly is right now.

Storm have relied on something like this, with tremendous success in renewing and refreshing their squads year after year, and Des has had success in the past with a similar strategy. (The Chooks on the other hand, for years have preferred to buy ready-made stars -SBW, Maloney, Jennings, Tedesco, Keary, Cronk, Crichton etc etc.)

By next year we’ll need at least a couple out of Hoppa, Funa, Cust, Paseka, & Haumole to really nail down a first grade spot on merit
 

Jacinta Martin

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Big money is relative .... 30 players on $300k is 9 million .... when you have say 3 players on over a mil each ... and say another 4 or 5 players on between $400k and $600k ...... then you need a group of players on much less ..... say $150k each ......

Problem is ..... which of our players on going to be happy on that coin .... most of them are performing above that level .... or are expected to ........

Your point of performing is valid .... unfortuneatly it will probably come down to affordability rather than desireability .....

The wonders of the salary cap ....
Going through the roster, I believe there are slightly more than 5 or 6 on 400-600k.
Fact, talk and or rumour... some worker bees have demonstrated more heart, skill and desire than a couple of those 2nd tier 400-600k players.
 

Woodsie

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Going through the roster, I believe there are slightly more than 5 or 6 on 400-600k.
Fact, talk and or rumour... some worker bees have demonstrated more heart, skill and desire than a couple of those 2nd tier 400-600k players.
Which is exactly my point .... those worker bees have/will increase their asking prices over the next 2 years .... which mathematically means .... that we will be forced to lose a few and replace them with new budget workers bees ....

Our problem .... Ironically ..... is all of our cheaper players are performing too well or more corrctly too soon .....
 

Woodsie

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From your earlier post @SeaEagleRock8 .... you listed the following ideal break -up .... which I agree is a good spread ....

‘A’ list - DCE and the Turbos on an average of 1mil each .................. 3 mil

‘B’ - Marty, Walker, Api, Joel, AFB on an average of 600k ..................3 mil

C – for example, 12 players on an average of about 190 k ...............2.28 mil

D – another 10 on an average of 150k ..............................................


1.5 mil


Total .................................................................................................... 9.78


My point is that if we did have 10 players on $150k ...... we won't by the end of the season .....

Can you name 10 of our current squad that you think will be happy/stay on $150k ..??
 

manly al

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There would be a revision downwards of some of those previous higher remunerated bracket Players such as Thomo , Walker and probably even Siro for instance who have been extended . Thomo was quoted once that his previous Manly contract was under 500 k and his new contract could even be less , Walker , previous 600 and has been stated as less now , then there is the 350 K in T P A "s to take into account . Not too sure about Marty "s new deal . A F B would have had some type of an upgrade and one would expect Suli soon also .No doubt that not insignificant group of players probably on the 150 - low 200 k category is assisting the club "s depth level at the moment and probably inevitably guys like Schuster and young Hoppa to be paid some decent money in due course and in order to retain them . Manly hierarchy have seemed to have done a good job in assembling the present squad with some delicate balancing , no doubt going to be difficult retaining all of the depth forwards line up in particular but playing for slightly unders with a well coached and harmonious playing group and well performed club may be enough incentive to want to be part of it going forward . .
 

SeaEagleRock8

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From your earlier post @SeaEagleRock8 .... you listed the following ideal break -up .... which I agree is a good spread ....
‘A’ list - DCE and the Turbos on an average of 1mil each .................. 3 mil
‘B’ - Marty, Walker, Api, Joel, AFB on an average of 600k ..................3 mil
C – for example, 12 players on an average of about 190 k ...............2.28 mil
D – another 10 on an average of 150k .......................................
1.5 mil ...
... Can you name 10 of our current squad that you think will be happy/stay on $150k ..??
Excellent question.
2 points - first, they don't have to be happy to stay on that amount, but that is the amount some are on now.
Second, my example scheme proposes an average range, so some will be on minimum, some on a bit more.
If their contracts are ending and they warrant a new deal with a moderate increase (say, 40k), then for next year release a current 150k player and replace with a new 110k player.

Losing and gaining the 'C' and 'D' listers in general won't upset the core strength or culture of the squad. Just my guess, of course :)
 

Woodsie

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Excellent question.
2 points - first, they don't have to be happy to stay on that amount, but that is the amount some are on now.
Second, my example scheme proposes an average range, so some will be on minimum, some on a bit more.
If their contracts are ending and they warrant a new deal with a moderate increase (say, 40k), then for next year release a current 150k player and replace with a new 110k player.

Losing and gaining the 'C' and 'D' listers in general won't upset the core strength or culture of the squad. Just my guess, of course :)
Fully agree .... under normal transmission .... no biggee .... what I am moderately concerned about ... is not that we will have 1 or 2 players warranting a new deal but nearer to 9 or 10 players ....

A few good judges are predicting that Keppie, Sipley, Guacomole, GoJetski, Suli, Schuster, Hoppa, Burbo, Waddell ... will all have break-out years ... add to that the possibility of the increase in value of I-Papa, Cust or Croker if one of them makes a good go of dummy half ......

And yes...some of them will still be under contract for 2021 .... but we have seen how keen the modern younger generation are to stick around if they feel "underpaid" ......

We live in interesting times ... and managing the salary cap over the next 12 months may/will see some of our favourites simply out price themselves ....
 

Ryan

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I think the results will determine turnover. I also think we will have an absolutely amazing season to be honest, and as is Des history, I think consistency, and low turnover, equates to chemistry and culture.

I'm also a fan of club and player meeting their contractual obligations.

Therefore, I like the idea of building slowly. Don't see why any player whatsoever could be looking elsewhere. The trajectory of our team is trending upwards.

Sea Eagles had the 4th youngest team in the NRL in 2019 (finishing 6th overall). With some players like Hodkinson and Koroisou leaving, and players like Hopoate and Turbo 3 joining the roster, I think we'll still be one of, the younger teams.

I understand that this is about cap management, but the cap is increasing, DCE would be on very little dollars (cap wise), given marquee player allowance, 3rd party, vehicle allowance, learning allowance etc.

Bring our rookies, and players in the system along. I hope Fainu (if innocent) comes back. But this is a team that should stick for some time, and I truly believe we have a dynasty building again.
 

Woodsie

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Bring our rookies, and players in the system along. I hope Fainu (if innocent) comes back. But this is a team that should stick for some time, and I truly believe we have a dynasty building again.
I agree the core top 20 players will stick ... but I still think we will be forced into many changes in the bottom 10 .....
 

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