The Wolfe's Sportsbet predictions ...

[Woodsie]

• Very interesting comments on Manly, Parra and Penrith

THE WOLF’S NRL 2021 SEASON PREVIEW​

The Melbourne Storm are again the team to bet hard in NRL futures with The Wolf declaring them Top 4 certainties and genuine hopes of going back-to-back.

The flag to fly south again​

Melbourne are the defending premiers yet have been severely underestimated, again, by the market. It is hard to articulate with enough force how good a bet the Storm are this year in many markets. They are Top 4 morals so the $1.85 is an astonishing price. They are going to be extraordinarily hard to beat in the minor premiership. The loss of Cameron Smith is obviously big but the club has Harry Grant and Brandon Smith, the Queensland and NZ hookers. Much like how the club transitioned from Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk, the Storm are more than prepared. This is a new team and they are stacked with star rep players in every spine position, a fearsome pack and genuine strike power out wide. More important than all, they have the greatest coach the game has known. Melbourne are legitimately panels ahead of the rest of the competition.

Melbourne Storm​

2021 NRL Grand Final Winner
6.00

Melbourne Storm​

2021 NRL Minor Premier
6.00

Melbourne Storm​

Top 4
1.85

Bunnies next best​

Melbourne will be back in the Grand Final. They just have too much class. The Bunnies and Roosters sit well above all other contenders and the Rabbitohs are the team on the up. They have the best balanced spine in the game. Latrell Mitchell is better for a season at fullback and is clearly stripping fitter. Damien Cook is an outstanding runner and the new rules suit him more than anyone. Wayne Bennett is in his last year at the Bunnies and the players love him so will be well motivated. No team has recruited more astutely, particularly with Josh Mansour adding some much-needed kick return. The Bunnies are major players this year.

Melbourne Storm / South Sydney​

NRL Quinella
17.00

Roosters in the four​

There are three good things to make the Top 4 this year. The Storm have finished in the Top 2 the last five seasons and in the Top 4 in 12 of the last 14. They don’t miss under Bellamy. The Roosters have finished Top 4 in seven of eight seasons under Trent Robinson. They show no signs of going backwards. Souths have made three straight preliminary finals, have improved their roster and are better suited to the new rules than any side. There are no big jumpers coming from the back. These three are all finishing in the Top 4.
Melbourne/South Sydney/Sydney Roosters @ $5.85

Penrith to plummet​

Penrith are an extraordinarily overrated proposition in 2021. They had every break possible last year on their way to a one-loss regular season and a minor premiership. Any regression in injuries and luck – and both are to be expected – and the Panthers will drop down quickly. They overshot their true win tally by a whopping 4.5 wins last year and have also lost veterans James Tamou and Josh Mansour, as well as a ton of depth. Taking Penrith on should reap some rewards.

Penrith Panthers​

To miss Top 4
2.10

…as will Parra​

Being against Parramatta is a highly wise position to take in 2021. The Eels we are likely to see is more likely to be the debacle that finished last season than those which started the year with a bang. The Eels were big beneficiaries of both a soft drawn and extraordinary luck in 2020, the latter signalled by an 8-1 record in close games. Parramatta’s recruitment has been laughable. This team is a fringe Top 8 proposition at best.

Parramatta Eels​

To miss Top 8
2.15

Under 14.5 Wins​

Eels regular season wins
1.74

Manly on the up​

Manly have been supremely underestimated by the market this year. They are probably short of the depth to be considered a genuine contender but anything outside of the Top 8 would be a real disappointment. The Eagles have very much attempted to structure their team like Melbourne with a strong head coach and a stars ‘n’ scrubs mentality. The Sea Eagles definitely have the top-end talent to compete. There are concerns around depth and Tom Trbojevic’s durability but in a competition with a long tail Manly look the goods to win at least half their games.

Over 11.5 Wins​

Sea Eagles regular season wins
1.88

Dragons in the doldrums​

If the Dragons can do something stupid, they seem intent on doing it. Hiring Anthony Griffin was a questionable decision. His hiring of Matt Elliott and Peter Gentle was extraordinarily insular. The treatment of Cameron McInnes, who will now miss the season with an ACL, was poor and to replace him with Cameron McInnes-light Andrew McCullough and give him a three-year deal was extraordinary. Ben Hunt being named skipper is the cherry on top. The Dragons roster is a mess and that is unlikely to be overridden by coaching.

St George Illawarra Dragons​

Least season wins
4.00

Early xmas gift in Queensland​

Are the Sportsbet bookmakers giving away money? It certainly seems to with this bet. The Titans are a team well and truly on the up. They have done an outstanding recruiting job not only in their big-name signings led by David Fifita but in clearing out so much deadwood. They are extremely well coached and AJ Brimson has emerged as an elite fullback. Brisbane are off a wooden spoon and a complete mess while it is hard to see the Cowboys jumping out of the bottom four. Christmas has come early.

Gold Coast Titans​

Top QLD team
1.72

Valentine value​

This market is a lottery but there is a little angle here. Todd Payten looks set to play Holmes on a wing and not at fullback. Holmes has a great tryscoring record as a winger, scoring 70 tries in 82 games when playing on the flank at all levels. He is worth a ticket at the big price.

Valentine Holmes​

NRL top tryscorer
51.00

Stake in Jake​

The only genuine tryscoring threat the Bulldogs have. He has just three tries in 13 games but will get a lot more of the ball this year at five-eighth. He won’t need many tries to top the Bulldogs list so missing a handful of games early in the season is not expected to be a problem.

Jake Averillo​

Bulldogs top try scorer
8.00

Riki top Bronco​

Riki had one start and four bench appearances last year and managed to score a ripping try against Penrith. Brisbane will not score many tries this year and Kevin Walters strikes as a tinkerer who will rotate through his three-quarter line. Riki could win this with 7-8 tries, very achievable for a hard-running edge forward.

Jordan Riki​

Broncos top try scorer
11.00

Charlie to fly​

Flyer who has scored six tries in just 120 minutes of NRL action, an astonishing return. The club has so much faith in him that they moved on veteran Josh Mansour. The Panthers don’t have any other genuine flyers so Staines looks good value.

Charlie Staines​

Panthers top try scorer
2.80

Paps on top​

Storm fullback Papenhuyzen has scored 20 tries in 42 games – 17 in 29 stars – and takes over the goalkicking for a team that has the most potent attack. His kicking is not great but he is the best of some ordinary options and will get plenty of opportunities.

Ryan Papenhuyzen​

NRL top point scorer
10.00

​

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Not sure who this is but good to see that not everyone has written us off.

BUT we are going to need a bit going our way.

 

[DUFFMAN]

One of 40 so called experts giving out there predictions.
All these experts will have 14 of the 16 teams in the 8 and a chance of winning the competition.
Nearly all of them are not experts and I have no idea who gives them this title.

I’m no more or less an expert then these hacks and my predictions or anyone else’s off this forum are no better or worse and just as biased to their team as any other supporter.

 

[Captain Moondog]

I like that he's tipped us as a dark horse this year, unfortunately he's **** at picking horses.

 

[wombatgc]

Not sure who this is but good to see that not everyone has written us off.

BUT we are going to need a bit going our way.

I just assumed it was the ‘Wolfman’. Especially as we know he likes a bet, and also the decent wrap he has for Manlys fortunes.

 

[Woodsie]

One of 40 so called experts giving out there predictions.
All these experts will have 14 of the 16 teams in the 8 and a chance of winning the competition.
Nearly all of them are not experts and I have no idea who gives them this title.

I’m no more or less an expert then these hacks and my predictions or anyone else’s off this forum are no better or worse and just as biased to their team as any other supporter.

I adopt the simple attitude . .. that anybody that puts **** on Parra and raps Manly ... IS AN EXPERT!

 

[Clint]

Can anyone confirm or deny if this is the David Wolfman Williams, or someone else? If it is our beloved former winger then I'll take the Manly comments with a grain of salt, especially if this was written prior to #corsogate as comments are obviously tarnished somewhat.
Otherwise if "Wolf" has no Manly connection then giddy up the man is obviously a genius

 

[jbb/james]

i just assume they work for betting agencies trying to keep business thumping by getting people to bet somewhere they wouldnt normally

 

[Tragic Eagle]

If we don't get murdered in games with multiple six again calls we may compete but if we get belted with six again calls it will be the same old story. I don't see us as being any worse than any other sides at getting up off the tackled player but IMO we are caned. And don't we cop some howlers like that atrocious forward pass call against Parramatta at Bankwest last year.

 

[Captain Moondog]

i just assume they work for betting agencies trying to keep business thumping by getting people to bet somewhere they wouldnt normally

Pretty sure he used to work for Best Bets or The Sportsman when they were hard copy magazines.

 

[Terry Zarsoff]

He must be from Melbourne. Because an Australian (someone from NSW, Qld or the ACT) would know there is no ‘flag’ awarded to the premiers in rugba league.