Rugby League Stats Question

[The Who]

I don't play Fantasy League or whatever it is called.
To me, stats are largely irrelevant. I certainly don't use them when voting for my MVPs on Silvertails. I reckon any credible RL fan is able to judge the better performers in any match.
My argument about stats includes:
How can you compare metres gained by a winger or fullback to a front rower? A winger/fullback gets to return the ball and gain many metres before he comes to a defender, plus he gets the greater chance of snaffling an intercept and running without impediment.
Why are they called 'hit-ups' instead of 'dying with the ball'?
How do you accurately judge a 'try assist?' There could be a dozen players in a movement that leads to a try; do they all get credited?
How do you accurately judge an error? A player may drop a ball but it is primarily because he received a bad pass. Who gets blamed?
Who gets credited with a tackle when there are more than one defender involved?

 

[lsz]

I don't play Fantasy League or whatever it is called.
To me, stats are largely irrelevant. I certainly don't use them when voting for my MVPs on Silvertails. I reckon any credible RL fan is able to judge the better performers in any match.
My argument about stats includes:
How can you compare metres gained by a winger or fullback to a front rower? A winger/fullback gets to return the ball and gain many metres before he comes to a defender, plus he gets the greater chance of snaffling an intercept and running without impediment.
Why are they called 'hit-ups' instead of 'dying with the ball'?
How do you accurately judge a 'try assist?' There could be a dozen players in a movement that leads to a try; do they all get credited?
How do you accurately judge an error? A player may drop a ball but it is primarily because he received a bad pass. Who gets blamed?
Who gets credited with a tackle when there are more than one defender involved?

Agree on all of this

As an example should the player who is first in a tackle get more "reward" that the second player? What is the value of a guy making 50 tackles a match?

 

[Chip and Chase]

There is a myriad of sites that provide Supercoach specific stats. Supercoach stats don't always reflect the actual usefulness of a player in real life. In some cases (Tommy) there is a direct correlation, but not always.

Rugby League is a hard game to analyse statistically IMO. It's very hard to capture the nuances of the intrinsic value of a play, the 1%ers if you like. A tackle 50m out on a straight hit up isn't worth as much as tackle 2m out from your own line one on one. An offload shovelled out the back to a flat footed prop is different to one that creates space and time for your playmakers to create from. Some try assists are just luck that came from happening to be the last person to touch the ball rather than the slick footwork, nice hands or deft kick for a genuine assist.

I'd love a simple +/- stat that ranked every touch, run or effort as positive, neutral or negative. Then at end of the game you see who did well and by how much relatively. You could have a 2 point +/- scale. +2 for something top shelf, or a 1%er, real effort play. +1 for something above average or good, 0 (neutral) for your run of the mill NRL standard effort, -1 for an error, missed tackle, poor pass, crap kick etc and -2 for a Barry Crocker.

 

[lsz]

There is a myriad of sites that provide Supercoach specific stats. Supercoach stats don't always reflect the actual usefulness of a player in real life. In some cases (Tommy) there is a direct correlation, but not always.

Rugby League is a hard game to analyse statistically IMO. It's very hard to capture the nuances of the intrinsic value of a play, the 1%ers if you like. A tackle 50m out on a straight hit up isn't worth as much as tackle 2m out from your own line one on one. An offload shovelled out the back to a flat footed prop is different to one that creates space and time for your playmakers to create from. Some try assists are just luck that came from happening to be the last person to touch the ball rather than the slick footwork, nice hands or deft kick for a genuine assist.

I'd love a simple +/- stat that ranked every touch, run or effort as positive, neutral or negative. Then at end of the game you see who did well and by how much relatively. You could have a 2 point +/- scale. +2 for something top shelf, or a 1%er, real effort play. +1 for something above average or good, 0 (neutral) for your run of the mill NRL standard effort, -1 for an error, missed tackle, poor pass, crap kick etc and -2 for a Barry Crocker.

It is interesting - would you place more value on defense or offense? Are they even?

 

[malroon]

player stats , tackles , errors , PCM and playing time and some team stats, penalties and six agains...

 

[Chip and Chase]

It is interesting - would you place more value on defense or offense? Are they even?

Depends on your role in the team. Obviously the spine are going to have more touches than a forward, but it's all about what they do with those touches and the net effect - is it positive or negative. I see people get caught up in a try assist or two but ignore the other 10 touches that were rubbish and possibly a negative contribution to the play. If you look at it from the point of view that if everyone does their "job" adequately you have a neutral score - say zero and you are probably competing in most games but maybe not winning depending on relative skill set. If your spine are net positive you are probably attacking well, or if your forwards are net negative you may be struggling in defence or finding it hard to make metres. The offense and defence "value" with both contribute to outcome, but poor performance in one may outweigh good effort in the other. Overall net positive across the team would suggest you'd be in with a good chance of a win. Obviously the more you dominate a team the more positive scores you get (good post contact metres, line breaks, try assists etc) so overall net score goes up to reflect actual score. Vice versa, if you are struggling to hold possession and contain the opposition then you are conceding negative plays and your net team contribution score would be below zero.

I use it in a rough method in my head to judge our kicking game. +1 for good kicks that find the grass, neutral for ones that go straight down the fullback's throat, negative for poor distance, panicked kicks, 20m restarts, or out on the fulls.

 

[Technical Coach]

Stats published in mainstream media don't interest me.

Stats are almost meaningless if you don't understand why they are the case.

Many players have good stats but it doesn't necessarily mean they are the reason for those good stats.

 

[eagleron]

Hi All,

A quick question for all (for something I am working on)

What do you use / want from rugby league stats? Is it to help supercoach? Or a general interest?

General interest for me, I'm too bloody old to buggerise around with supercoach or anything nerdy

 

[StuBoot]

Like @Technical Coach said, stats are meaningless without context.

I wrote the other week that I’m curious regarding the error count.
- unforced errors like dropping the ball cold
- forced errors like a one on one strip or a heavy tackle forcing the ball out.

Would give us a better idea of individual player and team performance l think.

How many of our errors last week v the Storm were the direct result of their pressure?

Errors cover things what l call “positive” errors like not grounding an attacking kick or going into touch when diving for the corner.
Are they really errors?

Also missed tackles is another all encompassing stat.
One miss may lead directly to a try yet another may not.
Depends where they are on the field and what position they play.
So something more specific may be helpful two.

Mainly general interest for me but I think it’d be helpful for reviews and understanding if a team really played like crap (unforced errors) or were just not good enough.

 

[manlyfan76]

Like @Technical Coach said, stats are meaningless without context.

I wrote the other week that I’m curious regarding the error count.
- unforced errors like dropping the ball cold
- forced errors like a one on one strip or a heavy tackle forcing the ball out.

Would give us a better idea of individual player and team performance l think.

How many of our errors last week v the Storm were the direct result of their pressure?

Errors cover things what l call “positive” errors like not grounding an attacking kick or going into touch when diving for the corner.
Are they really errors?

Also missed tackles is another all encompassing stat.
One miss may lead directly to a try yet another may not.
Depends where they are on the field and what position they play.
So something more specific may be helpful two.

Mainly general interest for me but I think it’d be helpful for reviews and understanding if a team really played like crap (unforced errors) or were just not good enough.

Just on missed tackles, many "air swings" don't go down as a missed tackles.

 

[Go manly]

Paul Keating had a view on stats which was famously quoted

for 30 years in safety statistics we have used the same numbers to slant the message a direction we wanted to sell

In safety they use frequency rates to determine occurrences of events and the severity of events whete every event is divided into common total algorithm
Lost time injuries frequency rates
Medical treatment frequency rates
First aid frequency rates
Near miss frequency rates
Hours lost frequency rates ( duration or severity
Cost per event
Types of events ( critical events )
Near miss events
Hi potential near miss

run metres would be

Individual run metres divided by total team run metres x million for the frequency rate fir the individual


some different measurements could be
Kicks to the left touch versus kicks to the right
Bombs dropped versus defused frequency rates
Errors versus touches frequency rate
Touches versus minutes frequency rates

 

[lsz]

Stats published in mainstream media don't interest me.

Stats are almost meaningless if you don't understand why they are the case.

Many players have good stats but it doesn't necessarily mean they are the reason for those good stats.

So what stats interest you?

 

[Technical Coach]

So what stats interest you?

Analysis involving player movement preferences under different scenarios, or types of passes used in given areas. Distance of passes to see the limitations of options a passer has. Which shoulder of a defender is their weakest, how players defend when under pressure or out numbered in terms of bad habits.

The quality and intensity of line running, how often a forward up the middle supports a lead running forward, speed of the play the ball, being able to slow down the play the ball, being able to hold up an attacker and dance around as if he cant't hear the refs call.

Body mechanics in terms of how a player leans before passing and what this means for the type of a pass they will deliver, forcing players with a dominant step away from their strongest side or pushing defenders up to encourage early use of the step.

Not so much stats but an analysis of play to understand what is effective and what is a waste of time, each play is broken down into intricate detail to the point i watch the game judging almost every play.

I could dribble on and probably list another 100 but it ruins the enjoyment of the game when you over analyze every aspect, i enjoyed the game more when knowing less, wish i had that same enthusiasm again.

Stats tell you what happened not why, too much emphasis on stats without understanding what creates the numbers.

Melbourne focus on what is effective and reward effort plays, they try and minimize under plays when playing at their peak----Melb is about player analysis for effective performance not so much about stats.

 

[globaleagle]

So...close

 

[Will on the hill]

Most important stat at the moment is PTB speed. I'd like to see stats on which defenders are the best at slowing the PTB.

 

[StuBoot]

Most important stat at the moment is PTB speed. I'd like to see stats on which defenders are the best at slowing the PTB.

PTB speed is an interesting one.
The defenders want to slow it down and the ball carrier wants to speed it up.

How is it measured?
From the ball carrier is stopped or when they get to their feet to play it?

If they surrender in a tackle to try to control when/how they play the ball the refs give more leeway to the defender so is that negated?
Also depends on how many are in the tackle too, wouldn’t it?

I find PTB speeds are somewhat controlled by the refs, if they allow the ball carrier to step over or beside the tackler then the PTB speed is increased.

A tough one to determine I think.

With defenders slowing it down, it’s a fine line between slowing down or conceding a set restart but that can also be determined by the refs.

I looked at our game v Melbourne again during the week - the tackle where Jake conceded a penalty on Hughes ( to take them to 12-0).
Jake stops him dead but Hughes crawls/steps over Jake preventing him from standing up at marker.
If the ref makes Hughes go back to the mark then Jake has slowed the PTB down well or if Hughes just played where he was then it’s just an average PTB.

I know where you’re coming from but when I see that stat l find it hard really get a gauge on how it relates to the defender slowing it down or the attacker speeding it up.

 

[jbb/james]

PTB speed is an interesting one.
The defenders want to slow it down and the ball carrier wants to speed it up.

How is it measured?
From the ball carrier is stopped or when they get to their feet to play it?

If they surrender in a tackle to try to control when/how they play the ball the refs give more leeway to the defender so is that negated?
Also depends on how many are in the tackle too, wouldn’t it?

I find PTB speeds are somewhat controlled by the refs, if they allow the ball carrier to step over or beside the tackler then the PTB speed is increased.

A tough one to determine I think.

With defenders slowing it down, it’s a fine line between slowing down or conceding a set restart but that can also be determined by the refs.

I looked at our game v Melbourne again during the week - the tackle where Jake conceded a penalty on Hughes ( to take them to 12-0).
Jake stops him dead but Hughes crawls/steps over Jake preventing him from standing up at marker.
If the ref makes Hughes go back to the mark then Jake has slowed the PTB down well or if Hughes just played where he was then it’s just an average PTB.

I know where you’re coming from but when I see that stat l find it hard really get a gauge on how it relates to the defender slowing it down or the attacker speeding it up.

the best way to do this is to have an independent observer watch every game, sound down and make there own determinations of when tackle are completed and judge play the ball time based of that.

then we could judge what type of defence gains more advantage and wether or not the ref needs training if its a consistent problem or more random

the tackles where players stand up and the defender holds the ball for an eternity as example. its the same ****

 

[pjayz]

Hi All,

A quick question for all (for something I am working on)

What do you use / want from rugby league stats? Is it to help supercoach? Or a general interest?

We should have Silvertails specific stats. That is, we should keep track of pre-game predictions, theories ,player evaluations etc and determine how often they proved accurate. Call it the "Told you so" stat.

Now that would be fun.

 

[Forster eagle]

So tackles, line breaks, errors, mtrs sort of thing?

I'm only looking at missed tackles, line breaks against and completion numbers