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Round 19 Preview

Chip and Chase

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Despite being disillusioned with my ability to tip winners, I will persist. I thought about applying my new tipping theory this week, where I carefully analyse each game to determine who I think will win, and then pick all other 7 teams that I originally decided against. Had I been applying this theory over the last 4-5 weeks I would have been markedly better off.

Penrith v Dogs

Despite beating us last week you could hardly describe the Panthers effort as dominating, or even adequate. There seems to a bit of upheaval out West, with a lot of players being cut from the roster, namely Galuvao, Ross and now Franze. I just don’t get the impression that they have their minds on the job, and secretly they are already looking forward to Mad Monday. The only thing in their favour is they are at home.

The Dogs on the other hand have been traveling better, mainly on the back of Anasta. Mason and Maitua will be fitter for a run last week and should get a bit more game time this week. Sherwin’s form is a little mystifying but if he performs as he is capable, than they should get home. I think the Dogs fancy their chances of making the 8 a little more than Penrith do.

Bulldogs

Roosters v Warriors

The Kiwis could be a lot better off on the table had they been able to win all the close ones that they have lost by 8 or less this year, another example of which was last week against the Dogs. This is a worrying trend, as you wouldn’t expect the Roosters to let them get to far ahead. They have been one of the few teams to be able to keep a reasonably stable lineup over the last month, as injury, suspension and rep footy has been kind to them.

The Roosters on the other hand have been fielding a different line up each week for the last 2 months just about. They go in without Crocker, Flannery, Cross, Morely and Webb this week. I’m just about over the Roosters, but as soon as you write them off they bounce back. The Warriors form away from home has been poor, but I’m going to go for the Warriors, more out of hope than anything, so smart money will be on the Roosters.

Warriors

Cronulla v Newcastle

Done by the Bunnies last week, Cronulla’s season has started to go awry. The Knights on the other hand must be buoyed by a couple of wins and will have something to aim for in avoiding the spoon. I’d have to favour the Knights with Joey and Buderus on board, although Cronulla are tough at home.

Knights

North Queensland v Souths

The Bunnies couldn’t possibly win two in a row, and the Cowboys will be out to atone for their upset loss to the Knights last week. With Bowen back and playing at home they will be too strong.

Cowboys

Brisbane v Melbourne

Hard to go past the Broncos in this one, despite the flogging they copped from the Storm in the first round. Will Orford’s mind be on footy or will he be thinking about peninsula real estate.

Broncos

Canberra v Parramatta

At this stage the Eels seem like the only team capable of stopping Brisbane from getting another premiership. They have played mighty consistent football and have one of the better performing benches in the league. I don’t think even Jason Smith’s presence will help the Raiders even though they are at home, especially without Woolford.

Eels

Manly v Dragons

Back to a near full strength line up, save for Choc and Hecks, Manly really need to break the run of poor form they have been experiencing. We got toweled by the Dragons in the first round, mainly because of poor go forward and ordinary kick chase. If the forwards put in a solid 80 minute (and I mean 80 minute) display I think we will be right. I think Tezza and AA can contain their danger men in Gasnier and Cooper, and with no Head, Barrett and Hornby we should have the edge. I will be looking for a marked improvement in the play of our halves this week, otherwise all the early season hard work will be worth naught. Lets hope the Fortress works it’s magic.

Manly :bdh:


Good Luck All
 

Dan

Kim Jong Dan
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I uploaded this to the content section as well. your tips are pretty much identical to mine
 

Fluffy

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Joined
Nov 12, 2004
Messages
21,161
"Despite being disillusioned with my ability to tip winners, I will persist. I thought about applying my new tipping theory this week, where I carefully analyse each game to determine who I think will win, and then pick all other 7 teams that I originally decided against. Had I been applying this theory over the last 4-5 weeks I would have been markedly better off."

You and me both.

i still cant see the knights getting up, i know they will get a few lucky wins but i cant see consistancy creeping in. That said i would be happy to see them win.

Thanks for the write up
 

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