Round 12 Preview: Fortress or Ruins?

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Kim Jong Dan
Staff member
Tipping Member
Round 12 Preview: Fortress or Ruins

Since the site is currently up and down and the host is ironing out some problems I thought this an opportune moment to work on this weeks preview. I apologise for my lack of quality writings last week, but most of you know why I had problems stringing words together.

After a blockbuster of a state of origin game last night it will be hard for any games this week to live up to it but try they must and only a sound and depth analysis of each game will help you sweep to the top of the tipping ladders around the nation.

Game 1: Bulldogs vs Cowboys

Both teams had a number of players out for state of origin, many of which had a lot of time on the field, the Cowboys are probably worst effected by these, with their half back Thurston icing his hand after the match, a small injury that should see him ok though for this clash.

The Bulldogs are starting to get hungry and are showing glimpses of the brilliance that has made them the successful club they are today.

Who backs up from origin will have a major effect on the outcome of this game and based on that fact it is hard not to back the bulldogs

Daniel’s Tip: Bulldogs

Game 2: Broncos vs Rabbitohs

Even though the Broncos have a number of players backing up from origin and the Rabbitohs have none, I just don’t think the Rabbitohs have the cohesion and quality needed to win matches, especially this one.

The only danger for the Broncos is complacency. There is a chance they will go in thinking the game is already one, and this may damage their chances.

Daniel’s Tip: Broncos

Game 3: Roosters vs Raiders

What a “toughie� this one is! The Raiders have lost Smith who has been inspirational in the teams current form, add to that Wolford still out and the team has lost a fair bit of strike power. What they do have going for them however is that the Roosters have a number of “stars� backing up from Origin and this will weaken them and even out the competition a bit.

The Roosters are on the improve and players like the count are starting to hit their straps and return to form, you can sense that they are starting to regain their confidence and belief in their abilities, this is dangerous for any team who comes up against them.

Daniel’s Tip: Roosters

Game 4: Sharks vs Eels

Another of those not sure sort of games. Its starting to get difficult to tip against the Sharks who have rock solid defence but at the time it feels uncomfortable and new to tip them. The Eels looked pretty good last Friday with Morris tearing it up on the field, add Hindmarsh back into the attack and they are a fearful sounding team. Young Tim Smiths kicking game is just brilliant and the kid know exactly how hard and in what direction to put the ball.

Kimmorely will be hurting after Wednesday night’s State of Origin match and will be a little bit put off by his poor performance, this will shake his confidence and probably cause more issues than it solved. His long flat passes were exposed last night and Parra are the kind of team who can capitalise on these sorts of things.

Daniel’s Tip: Eels

Game 5: Warriors vs West Tigers

The warriors are starting to show some promise especially with Jones starting to find a bit of his old magic again. The problem is they won against a hapless Rabbitohs, however convincingly you beat them, it does not show your true form.

The problem with this game is both teams are a tipsters nightmare. The Tigers came away with a good win against the Raiders and this will spur them on again.

The Warriors at home can cause a few headaches at times but it isn’t really the fortress it once was. With most fans more interested how the crusaders are going there likely wont be a large turnout, and boys like benji will enjoy playing back at home.

Daniel’s Tip: Tigers

Game 6: Storm vs Dragons

After a shaky start to the season the Dragons are beginning to shape up as real contenders, with a powerful and all conquering backline and the genius barret controlling the centre. What will hurt them is pretty much their entire backline backing up from the Origin game, especially the back who played the full 80 minutes.

The Storm have Billy the Kid slater back but he and team mate matt king will be backing up as well. This is certainly going to be a tough one to pick. The Dragons have a better forward pack and are probably better through the outside backs as well. But only by a shade over Melbourne. You can also never underestimate orfords ability to weave magic.

Daniel’s Tip: Dragons
Game 7: Sea Eagles vs Penrith

Well its back to Fortress Brookvale and the Alternate Eagles boys will be out in force and full voice, swinging from the rafters.
BK had an outstanding game in origin 1 and will likely be rather tired from it, but the extended rest period should provide him enough time to recover. Choc Watmough also played but was not given a lot of game time so he should be fresh.
Manly are looking to recover from a close loss to Parramatta last week.

They showed outstanding defence in the second half to keep the Eels scoreless and came close to scoring themselves a number of times. The defence will be boosted by BK and Watmough and both these players will adds something to the attack. The loss of Dunley is a concern but willow and randall can cover this spot fairly well anyway.

Panthers pride has been hurt this season, especially when they came so close last week only to have victory snatched from them late in the game.
They are lacking confidence in them selves but Campbell and wesser feel they have something to prove and will help to inspire the team.

There is no doubt they will be fired up for this game, there is nothing like pipping the home team in their fortress and starting off a mentality that usually leads to a very nice winning streak.

Daniel’s Tip: Sea Eagles.
I have Storm,Warriors,Sharks and Cowboys different there.

I think Kimmorley will tear it up this weekend after Wednesday
perhaps, perhaps not, but I am willing to take the risk. The Eels didnt look that good against Manly but I think they are going to surprise a lot of people this week
parra in an upset for me, and the dragons, they are a good bet by the way, they are $2.60 outsiders!!!
Crap, Pepsi has put the Mush on now
For what it's worth.

Game 1: Bulldogs vs Cowboys

The Cowboys have a few players backing up, and from reports Bowman and Webb may not make it tonight. If this is the case they will be without their 2 first string centres, and Webb has been one of their key go forward men this year. The Bulldogs come into the game fresh, with Ryan not excatly wearing himself out on Wednesday. After a solid start to the season the Cowboys have a LLB record from their last 3. The Bulldogs seem to be running into a bit of form with a good win over Melbourne. If Bowman and Webb don't play I think the Cowboys will struggle, therefore I'm going for the Dogs.

Game 2: Broncos vs Rabbitohs

I believe all the Broncos players came through SOO without any problems, and this is the perfect game for them to run out a bit of the stiffness they would be feeling. Tate maybe an outside chance of playing too. Brisbane are experts at backing up from SOO and do it year in, year out, so complacency won't be a problem. Webcke and Bennett will see to that. Souths have nothing and all they can hope for is not to be embarrassed by a much classier outfit. Broncos by however many they feel like racking up.

Game 3: Roosters vs Raiders

It's hard to get excited about the Raiders without Smith and Woolford. They did carve up the Tigers early in the second half last week to get back into the game without this pair on the feild, but the Roosters defence around the rucks will be a lot tighter than the Tigers' was. I guess a fair bit rides on how well the Roosters SOO players back up. Fitzy in particular must be dog tired after his effort. Too much class on the feild for the Rorters so I'm reasonably confident they will get home.

Game 4: Sharks vs Eels

If there is a God then he will ensure that Cronulla get flogged in this one and that Kimmorley will have a shocker and blow any chance of selection for SOO2. However we all know that there is no God so we will have to rely on astute analysis. Cronulla at home are always a tough proposition. However Dykes is out this week, so the playmaking responsibility rests fairly on Kimmorley's shoulders. How he reacts to his shocker on Wednesday remains to be seen, but I reckon that intercept will be in the back of his mind everytime he runs to the line looking for a flat pass. Parra have been playing some pretty good footy and seem to be coming together quite well. They have a solid forward pack which should more than match the Sharks go forward, and I think their interchange forwards in MoiMoi and Widders have a little bit more attacking flair than their Sharks counterparts. Kimmorley to crumble and the Eels to get home.

Game 5: Warriors vs West Tigers

The Tigers triumphed in their first meeting in round 5, in a wet and sloppy game, but the Warriors have improved dramatically since that day. They are starting to show some form and seem to have settled on a starting line up that works. The Tigers, as always, showed a willingness to attack against the Raiders and it paid dividends giving than an unassailable lead early in the first half. But they also showed a willingness to get lazy and showed poor ruck defence which let Canberra back in the game. I don't think they have the starch up front to match Price and Wiki, who should give Jones, Faumuina and Co. the room and time to be creative. I'm never confident tipping either of these sides but I'm going for the Warriors in this one.

Game 6: Storm vs Dragons

Probably the toughest game of the round to pick. The Storm have been a bit up and down, but they have some key players in Smith, Slater and King back. Their normally good record at home hasn't eventuated this year , having lost their last 3 at Olympic Park. BUT they do have a good record against the Dragons. The Dragons have got their campaign back on the rails after a very shaky start. They have 5 players backing up from SOO, but you couldn't imagine that Ryles' effort took too much out of him. I like the Dragons pack as they have a good mix of experience, youth, size and skill. They also obviously have two of the classiest centers going around, but in Matt King the Storm have a very solid defensive centre who did a wonderful job of snuffing out Berrigan a few times on Wednesday. Both Orford and Barrett perform well behind a pack that can go forward, and as they hold the key for their respective sides whichever one of them gets the space will be able to orchestrate the win. I think the Dragons pack can get over the Storm, especially if Ryles and Bailey put in and play for their SOO2 positions. This will give Barrett the room and time to lead them to victory.

Game 7: Sea Eagles vs Penrith

On current form you would have to say Manly will win this no problems, especially at Brookie. On paper an unbiased analyst would lean towards the Panthers side. Therein lays the problem, if the Panthers team fire than we may be in for a fight. I keep thinking that they are a better team than the one that has managed one lucky win against the Warriors from their last 5 games. But confidence is a valuable commodity, we have some and they must be running low. Manly will have to watch Priddis from dummy half and keep that good defence going that has been the key all year. We will miss Dunleys spark off the bench (yes I think the appeal will be fruitless), as I can't see either of the journeymen Randall and Willo providing anything other than solid no frills play. It's ironic that the key to this game lays with our back row, as it has been Penriths back row that made them so successful for the last two seasons. We missed BK and Choc's impact last week, and I'm hoping that they can make the difference for us this week. I think Choc will be champing at the bit, he didn't get much game time on Wednesday but no doubt the experience has fuelled his desire and bolstered his self belief. I think he will have a blinder and I hope some of his enthusiasm rubs off on King, Kite and Harris.

Also be interested in the battle between Monas and Gower, it might go some way towards settling the long running argument of where Monas sits in the hierachy of NRL halfbacks. On the basis of us been a 8-10 point better side at Brooky I'm sticking with the mighty Eagles to put the Panthers 2005 campaign to bed.
St G have an appalling record at OP. Warriors are a good show against the Tiges in my opinion and Sharks are very hard to beat at Caltex, Ronson, Endeavour or whatever derivation of the name they come up with.
The MB crystal ball says Tiges to win by 12, Sharks to hang on with Noddy having a hugely improved game, and Doggies and Sharks to just get home.
Same tips as Kiwi for the following reasons.

Cowboys - sure they have people backing up, but all but one is a back (Webb is the forward, and he might be ruled out anyway). Shouldn't be a huge task for the backs to play a couple of games in a week.

Storm - Dragons have their frontline props backing up from a hectic game of forwards footy where they both racked up 30+ tackles.

Broncos - Should have no problem. Bunnies are done.

Sharks - Kimmorley will have a point to prove, their forward pack is unchanged. They should have no problems + Hindy will do well to back up - he was absolutely out on his feet last weds. Looked dead after 25 minutes, and will surely still be feeling the effects of Origin.

Roosters - No Smith is a massive blow for the Raiders. Crocker, Flannery and Fitzy are the forwards backing up from Origin but they could pretty much all start from the bench given the strength that the Roosters possess in terms of depth.

Sea Eagles - Who knows why. Panthers are in sh*t form. Manly at home. No other reasons really.

Warriors - Not confident on this one either. Banking on home ground advantage.
My tipping has been disgraceful so far this year. Granted, I've improved in the last month but still. I'm happy with 4/7 each week.

Sorry dude.
One right, except that I just checked OzTips.....F*CKING TIPPED THE DOGS.

I must've done them on Monday or something as I've just tipped all the home teams. Must've done that with the intention of updating them after Origin. God. Damn.
nope 1 game does not a shocking round make!

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