Oil Reserves

[clontaago]

Some interesting facts to come out of the forum I recently attended were the amount of barrels of crude produced and consumed each day. I have posted some figures below:

Global Oil : 2005 (Million Barrels Daily)

Production Consumption Reserves to Production ratio:Years

North America
13.6 24.9 12

S & C America
7.0 4.8 41

Europe/Eurasia
17.6 20.3 22

Middle East
25.1 5.7 81

Africa
9.8 2.8 32

Asia Pacific
8.0 24.0 14


Total
81.1 82.5 41

What do we think?

 

[Fluffy]

no punch line?

 

[clontaago]

Just wanted to get some opinions Fluffy.

A combined total of 41 years (at current consumption rates) of crude oil reserves left in the world.

In 12 years time North America will have to start importing ALL of their crude oil requirements.

 

[Dan]

Just wanted to get some opinions Fluffy.

A combined total of 41 years (at current consumption rates) of crude oil reserves left in the world.

In 12 years time North America will have to start importing ALL of their crude oil requirements.

Hence the "war on terror"

 

[clontaago]

Ditto that Dan.

Largest Oil Reserves 2005

(‘000 Mil Barrels) R/P Ratio Share of Total (%)

Saudi Arabia 264 66 22
Iran 137 93 11
Iraq 115 ? 10
Kuwait 101 ? 9
UAE 98 97 8
Venezuela 80 73 7
Russia 74 21 6

USA 29 12 2
OPEC 902 73 75
World 1,201 41 100

It is estimated that by 2020 OPEC countries will control 95% of the worlds reserves.

 

[Dan]

Looks liek Iran is next on the list then.

Saudi Arabia are already an allie of the US

 

[Fluffy]

Hydrogen powered cars will change these figures before that time, both Honda and toyota are advancing on this at a great rate in order to cash in on the current environmental push.

There are already commercially available hydrogen powered cars on the market. Unfortunatly they are only toys about 4 inches in lenght but the point is this technology isnt too far off.

 

[Narcissus]

... and in the mean time, use my Fuel Efficiency Calculator

 

[clontaago]

And where are we going to fill these hydrogen powered cars Fluffy? Whilst the technology is available, the infrastructure to support it is at least a decade or 2 away.

 

[Ryan]

Cripes...that's a worry. There HAS to be some forms of alternate power sources.

I have a company on my portfolio, that processes a renewable energy source, that when burnt....wait for it....doesn't emit harmful toxins. I know it sounds weird, but it's fact.

They have created it so that while the one source is being utilised, a 2nd source is renewing over only a 2 year period, that then becomes renewable on a constant cycle.

There are some big companies around the world that have already offered the company contracts as follows:-

We will buy, at any price (subject to a cap I'm sure), everything you can produce. Everything. Therefore demand will always be higher than supply I guess.

I won't go into specifics for privacy reason..but what Clontaggo says above is a worry, and would make investment into the company I have on my books very worthwhile.

Once Oil is gone, other fuels utilisation will increase....it's a worry....what kind of a world have we bought our kids up in?

 

[Fluffy]

Definatly a worry Ryan, i have kids??

lol

You make a good point and i would be very keen to know more about the renewable source you talk about, mostly out of curiosity but understand you may not be able to say much for privacy.

Clon - the hydrogen stations could easily be incorporated into your standard petrol stations in the same way LPG is. All you would need is some Hydrogen plants and delivery vehicles. All said and done you could do this within 5 years if there is a market for it - its the funding that will delay things.

There are about 500 hydrogen powered cars in the world already.

Taken from Wikipedia

Hydrogen filling stations
Since the turn of the millennium, filling stations offering hydrogen have been opening worldwide. Among them:

Some fuel stations in Germany (among them, Aral), within the Clean Energy Partnership, are offering hydrogen.
Bus refueling stations in a small number of European cities as part of the Clean Urban Transport for Europe programme.
Iceland began opening stations in 2003 as part of the country's initiative to implement a hydrogen economy.[1]
Stations in California opened by the California Fuel Cell Partnership, and under Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's hydrogen highway program.
A Washington DC Shell gas station on Benning Road sells mostly gasoline but also has one hydrogen pump. President George W. Bush made news by visiting the station.
The third hydrogen filling station in the world opened in Dearborn, Michigan in 1999, sponsored by Ford.[2]
Japan has a number of hydrogen filling stations run by the JHFC (Japan Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Demonstration Project) to test various technologies of hydrogen generation.
British Columbia, Canada is building a seven node hydrogen refueling station network from Victoria to Whistler timed to coincide with the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. The node in Surrey was the first in the world to deliver hydrogen at 70 MPa, and is the longest operational node in the network, having been supplying hydrogen since March 2002.[3]

 

[Fluffy]

There is also developement on home stations that allow you to refill from home as well as heat the house in the process

eg

Hydrogen filling stations
Since the turn of the millennium, filling stations offering hydrogen have been opening worldwide. Among them:

Some fuel stations in Germany (among them, Aral), within the Clean Energy Partnership, are offering hydrogen.
Bus refueling stations in a small number of European cities as part of the Clean Urban Transport for Europe programme.
Iceland began opening stations in 2003 as part of the country's initiative to implement a hydrogen economy.[1]
Stations in California opened by the California Fuel Cell Partnership, and under Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's hydrogen highway program.
A Washington DC Shell gas station on Benning Road sells mostly gasoline but also has one hydrogen pump. President George W. Bush made news by visiting the station.
The third hydrogen filling station in the world opened in Dearborn, Michigan in 1999, sponsored by Ford.[2]
Japan has a number of hydrogen filling stations run by the JHFC (Japan Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Demonstration Project) to test various technologies of hydrogen generation.
British Columbia, Canada is building a seven node hydrogen refueling station network from Victoria to Whistler timed to coincide with the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. The node in Surrey was the first in the world to deliver hydrogen at 70 MPa, and is the longest operational node in the network, having been supplying hydrogen since March 2002.[3]

 

[clontaago]

Yeah I did read that on Wikipedia Fluff but I also read this from msnbc:

Industry: Fuel cells a decade off

The major automakers are all working on fuel cells but none predict mass production vehicles this decade. The California Fuel Cell Partnership, which has brought carmakers together at a test hub in Sacramento, doesn't expect take-off until 2012-2020, with numbers in the low thousands initially until an infrastructure can be developed

It is ALSO the cost of the fuel cells that will hold things up the most.

 

[clontaago]

I guess we need to look at it like this:

How many cars are in there in the US?
How long would it take for everyone to make the switch from Gasoline powered vehicles to Hydrogen?
I am sure that in between time, North America will run dry its reserves of crude oil.

Now thats scary Ryan, especially if GWB is still in power!!

 

[Fluffy]

GWB can only be in power for one more term - one thing the yanks have done well is limit the number of consequtive terms.

Fuel cells are not infrastructure clon nor are they what you fill from.

I beleive the range currently is only around the 150 - 200km mark, however if you have a home system you can refill over night and wont need the infrastructure.

Secondly i dont expect the yanks to lead the way in this technology, they will lag behind Europe and Japan like they have in everything car wise for well ever really.

I expect these things to start to become available in 5 - 10 years.

and yes the yanks running out of oil will be scary but i think it will be 15 - 20 years away, this will just prolonge the inevidable

 

[The Gronk]

As part of my job I am a member of what is called the National Hydrogen Materials Alliance, which is doing research aimed at the production, storage and use of hydrogen in vehicles. We have a bunch of targets we are supposed to aim at meeting in each area, which if we did would give a car that competed on price and performance with petrol. The deadline for meeting them is 2010. At the moment there are problems in all of the categories, so yeah I think it will be a fair way off. Also it would only take one safety incident and the oil companies would run a massive scare campaign to convince everyone that all hydrogen cars would be mini Hindenburgs.

 

[Canteen Worker]

I am surprised the Oil companies haven't done what happens every time someone has a good idea. Offer them money, buy them out and let the project fall into oblivion and then raise the oil prices.

 

[Jatz Crackers]

I am surprised the Oil companies haven't done what happens every time someone has a good idea. Offer them money, buy them out and let the project fall into oblivion and then raise the oil prices.

But of course CW, you know that they (big money self interest) have multiple strategies for multiple scenarios. Left field opportunities will come from left field political changes. Its the only way evolutionary political influences produce change. And im not talking about Garrett's promotion to the starry front bench either.

 

[Fluffy]

There a bloke in Tassy who did just that - sold his patent to caltex for good money quite a few years ago now, however as part of his deal he was alowed to keep running his car.

 

[clontaago]

Fluffy I know the difference between Fuel Cells and Infrastructure you clown.

I left out the word "Also".