Powerhouses the Rabbitohs and the Eels are tipped to miss the finals again in 2024, while there is just one change to the top eight in Fox Sports Lab’s predicted ladder.
The 2024 NRL draw has been revealed, making the picture for next season’s premiership race clearer.
To help — and for a bit of off-season fun — Fox Sports Lab has pulled together a predicted ladder, based on the 2024 draw and last year’s results.
There’s a big asterisk here — the ladder, based on simulating the season 10,000 times and factoring in teams’ record at certain venues in 2023 — doesn’t take into account team changes.
But based on the data available, it could be another lean year for Souths, who are rated a 2.70 per cent chance to win the minor premiership and a 16.61 per cent chance to make the top four.
Souths are just a 42.95 per cent chance to make the top eight and a 3.31 per cent chance to finish last, with their highest percentage of probability for where they will finish predicts they will run 11th.
The Eels are given a 18.27 per cent chance to make the top four, a 45.8 per cent chance to make the top eight and are predicted to finish in 10th place.
The Cowboys are the only team who missed the finals in 2023 to break into the top eight, but the finishing order has been altered.
The Cowboys replace the Raiders in eighth with a 25.75 per cent chance of making the top four and a 56.06 per cent chance of making the top eight, while Canberra slip to 12th with just a 9.15 per cent chance of making the top four and a 28.95 per cent chance of playing finals.
The top three is the same as last year with the Panthers in first with a 26.90 per cent chance of winning another minor premiership, while the Broncos (16.60) and the Storm (11.50) come in second and third.
The Knights surge into the top four with a 36.63 per cent chance of making the top four and a 68.9 per cent chance of playing finals, while the Warriors slip to seventh with a 26.83 per cent probability of making the top four and 57.56 chance of making the top eight.
The Sharks are predicted to finish one place up in fifth, while the Roosters also rise one spot to sixth to round out the top eight.
Bad news for Bulldogs fans with Canterbury tipped to run last with a 0.10 per cent chance of winning the wooden spoon and just a 7.23 per cent chance of making the top eight.
The bottom four remains the same as last year, but the order changes with the Dragons moving to 14th, the Titans to 15th and the Tigers to second last.
Manly are predicted to just miss the finals and finish in ninth place, while the Dolphins will have to settle for the same finish as their inaugural season in 13th.
Of course every team starts Round 1 on zero competition points and the players will decide the real ladder in 2024.
Pre-season training, injuries, new recruits, coaching and luck will all play their part, but time will tell if the Panthers will once again climb the mountain or will a dark horse come from the clouds.
But Fox Sports Lab ran the numbers and came up with its predicted ladder for 2024.
PREDICTED 2024 NRL LADDER
Based on NRL draw and 2023 results
Pos Team Minor Premiers Top 4 Top 8 Last
1. Penrith Panthers (MP 26.90%, T4 55.16, T8 88.56, Last 0.1)
2. Brisbane Broncos (MP 16.60%, T4 52.48, T8 88.68, Last 0.25)
3. Melbourne Storm (11.50%, T4 42.49, T8 72.2, Last 0.51)
4. Newcastle Knights (8.80%, T4 36.63, T8 68.9, Last 0.99)
5. Cronulla Sharks (8.36%, T4 36.4, T8 67.61, Last 0.71)
6. Sydney Roosters (5.40%, T4 26.95, T8 57.9, Last 1.45)
7. Warriors (5.10%, T4 26.83, T8 57.56, Last 1.33)
8. North Queensland Cowboys (4.80%, T4 25.75, T8 56.06, Last 1.53)
9. Manly Sea Eagles (3.50%, T4 20.11, T8 47.76, Last 2.65)
10. Parramatta Eels (2.90%, T4 18.27, T8 45.8, Last 2.42)
11. South Sydney Rabbitohs (2.70%, T4 16.61, T8 42.95, Last 3.31)
12. Canberra Raiders (1.10%, T4 9.15, T8 28.95, Last 6.64)
13. Dolphins (1.00%, T4 8.01, T8 27.12, Last 7.34)
14. St George-Illawarra Dragons (0.70%, T4 5.73, T8 21.9, Last 9.39)
15. Gold Coast Titans (0.50%, T4 5.07, T8 18.66, Last 11.17)
16. Wests Tigers (0.10%, T4 2.1, T8 10.16, Last 22.74)
17. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (0.10%, T4 1.26, T8 7.23, Last 27.47)
The 2024 NRL draw has been revealed, making the picture for next season’s premiership race clearer.
To help — and for a bit of off-season fun — Fox Sports Lab has pulled together a predicted ladder, based on the 2024 draw and last year’s results.
There’s a big asterisk here — the ladder, based on simulating the season 10,000 times and factoring in teams’ record at certain venues in 2023 — doesn’t take into account team changes.
But based on the data available, it could be another lean year for Souths, who are rated a 2.70 per cent chance to win the minor premiership and a 16.61 per cent chance to make the top four.
Souths are just a 42.95 per cent chance to make the top eight and a 3.31 per cent chance to finish last, with their highest percentage of probability for where they will finish predicts they will run 11th.
The Eels are given a 18.27 per cent chance to make the top four, a 45.8 per cent chance to make the top eight and are predicted to finish in 10th place.
The Cowboys are the only team who missed the finals in 2023 to break into the top eight, but the finishing order has been altered.
The Cowboys replace the Raiders in eighth with a 25.75 per cent chance of making the top four and a 56.06 per cent chance of making the top eight, while Canberra slip to 12th with just a 9.15 per cent chance of making the top four and a 28.95 per cent chance of playing finals.
The top three is the same as last year with the Panthers in first with a 26.90 per cent chance of winning another minor premiership, while the Broncos (16.60) and the Storm (11.50) come in second and third.
The Knights surge into the top four with a 36.63 per cent chance of making the top four and a 68.9 per cent chance of playing finals, while the Warriors slip to seventh with a 26.83 per cent probability of making the top four and 57.56 chance of making the top eight.
The Sharks are predicted to finish one place up in fifth, while the Roosters also rise one spot to sixth to round out the top eight.
Bad news for Bulldogs fans with Canterbury tipped to run last with a 0.10 per cent chance of winning the wooden spoon and just a 7.23 per cent chance of making the top eight.
The bottom four remains the same as last year, but the order changes with the Dragons moving to 14th, the Titans to 15th and the Tigers to second last.
Manly are predicted to just miss the finals and finish in ninth place, while the Dolphins will have to settle for the same finish as their inaugural season in 13th.
Of course every team starts Round 1 on zero competition points and the players will decide the real ladder in 2024.
Pre-season training, injuries, new recruits, coaching and luck will all play their part, but time will tell if the Panthers will once again climb the mountain or will a dark horse come from the clouds.
But Fox Sports Lab ran the numbers and came up with its predicted ladder for 2024.
PREDICTED 2024 NRL LADDER
Based on NRL draw and 2023 results
Pos Team Minor Premiers Top 4 Top 8 Last
1. Penrith Panthers (MP 26.90%, T4 55.16, T8 88.56, Last 0.1)
2. Brisbane Broncos (MP 16.60%, T4 52.48, T8 88.68, Last 0.25)
3. Melbourne Storm (11.50%, T4 42.49, T8 72.2, Last 0.51)
4. Newcastle Knights (8.80%, T4 36.63, T8 68.9, Last 0.99)
5. Cronulla Sharks (8.36%, T4 36.4, T8 67.61, Last 0.71)
6. Sydney Roosters (5.40%, T4 26.95, T8 57.9, Last 1.45)
7. Warriors (5.10%, T4 26.83, T8 57.56, Last 1.33)
8. North Queensland Cowboys (4.80%, T4 25.75, T8 56.06, Last 1.53)
9. Manly Sea Eagles (3.50%, T4 20.11, T8 47.76, Last 2.65)
10. Parramatta Eels (2.90%, T4 18.27, T8 45.8, Last 2.42)
11. South Sydney Rabbitohs (2.70%, T4 16.61, T8 42.95, Last 3.31)
12. Canberra Raiders (1.10%, T4 9.15, T8 28.95, Last 6.64)
13. Dolphins (1.00%, T4 8.01, T8 27.12, Last 7.34)
14. St George-Illawarra Dragons (0.70%, T4 5.73, T8 21.9, Last 9.39)
15. Gold Coast Titans (0.50%, T4 5.07, T8 18.66, Last 11.17)
16. Wests Tigers (0.10%, T4 2.1, T8 10.16, Last 22.74)
17. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (0.10%, T4 1.26, T8 7.23, Last 27.47)
