Preview: Sea Eagles v Cowboys
Adam Lucius sportal.com.au
HEAD TO HEAD: Played 19 - Sea Eagles 12, Cowboys 7.
LAST TIME: Round 22, 2012 - Sea Eagles 8-6
MISSING IN ACTION: Jamie Lyon looks to have overcome a calf injury and is a near certainty to play. Steve Matai is serving one of his regular bans and has played his last game for the year unless Manly win. The reliable Dean Whare shifts from wing to centre as cover with Michael Oldfield brought in on the flank. Cowboys hooker Aaron Payne (knee) is a doubtful starter, with Anthony Mitchell on stand-by.
FORM: North Queensland haven't lost since Manly edged them 8-6 back in Round 22. That's five straight wins. They were super impressive in seeing off Brisbane in the first week of the finals but, to be honest, the Broncos aren't much of a yardstick. This is a much bigger test, especially given the Cowboys' appalling form in the Harbour City. Turn away now if you support Neil Henry's men because it makes for ugly reading: North Queensland have played 112 games in Sydney for 33 wins (success rate 29 percent). They have won just four of their past 25 matches since 2008 and only one of their past 10 in the NSW capital. Records are meant to be broken but that one needs a sledgehammer to crack it open. Manly's six-match winning run came to an end last week at the hands of Canterbury. It was enough for many critics to write them off but not this one. There were only six points in it and if Matai hadn't super glued the ball to his hands, the Sea Eagles may have scored a late try to lock it all up. They love playing at Moore Park and have beaten the Cowboys in six of their of past eight meetings
FOR SEA EAGLES TO WIN: Lyon is critical to Manly's chances. If he is not there or plays half-fit, Matty Bowen and Johnathan Thurston will carve up the Sea Eagles' right-hand side defence. No wonder Manly fans have set up candlelight vigils for Lyon this week. Those same supporters are also starting to dread half-time breaks. Someone must be spiking the Sea Eagles' oranges because they are falling away dramatically in the final 40 minutes of matches. They have scored just 10 points in their past four second halves. Ball control was also an issue against the Dogs and will have to be dramatically improved otherwise it will be end-of-season drinks time.
FOR COWBOYS TO WIN: Henry reckons he has seen a glint in Thurston's eye over the past few weeks. The Cowboys skipper is desperate to lead the club to their first premiership and the players are buying into it in a big way. The No.7 will exploit any small weakness in the Manly defensive line, especially if there's uncertainty on the edges. The North Queensland pack has to deliver first and there is every indication they will. The engine room has been tremendous over the past month, allowing Thurston and Bowen to do their stuff. Kane Linnett and Brent Tate will also prove a handful out wide.
WE THINK: We're not sucked in by the doom and gloom surrounding Manly after just one loss. They were poor against Canterbury yet were in the game right until the final seconds. They won't play that badly again. The Cowboys deserve an enormous amount of respect and are in this match right up to their necks. If Thurston pulls out one of his specials, then they are capable of marching on. But that appalling record in Sydney is simply too hard for us to ignore. Manly by 4.