My heart always wants to see us top 4, (play and win GF’s) as a realist, my head says theres a chance, albeit a slim one.
We need a lot thing to fall our way and a few things to fall apart for some of the other sides. 17 sides begin the season aiming to play finals footy, 9 don’t make it, 13 can’t and won’t make the 4, that’s a 23% probability statistically speaking to finish top 4.
Took 38 points to secure a top 4 finish last year, I expect it will be very similar this year, if so, it will take 16 wins from 24 games, a 67% win ratio and may take 17 to guarantee, shifting the odds to a 71% win ratio, (2024 we won 13 games for a 54% winning ratio, excluding our draw)
Below is the season ahead, taken from the Sea Eagles offical website. Find 16 possibly 17 wins there and a finish top 4 finish is the deal, it’s a tough challenge, however we have a reasonably favourable draw with 12 home games at Brookie, however we also have a tough run home into the finals
Pretty sure it’s no secret you need a top 4 finish to be any shot of playing in September (history says so) I also feel pretty confident saying we would need a top 4 finish and a win week one of the finals to earn a week off if we were any chance of progressing.
I think top 4 is a huge task, here’s hoping we have a huge year.
The challenge is spelt out below, it’s only 16 wins right, shouldn’t be that hard! You know it is and if you don’t you should know it will be, anyway be interested to see if anyone will place their 16 W’s in the right place.
The Sea Eagles open their season at 4 Pines Park against the North Queensland Cowboys on Saturday, March 8, at 7.35pm.
Manly will have a massive advantage in 2025 with all 12 home games being played at 4 Pines Park.
Click here to download our printable .pdf of our 2025 draw
Here are some of the key points of the 2025 Sea Eagles draw:
Home Games
Four of Manly's first five games will be played at 4 Pines Park in a terrific start to the season with three consecutive games at home against the Canberra Raiders, Parramatta Eels, and the Melbourne Storm.
The Brisbane Broncos also finally return to Brookvale for the first time since 2014.
Manly play the following teams at 4 Pines Park in 2025: Nth Qld Cowboys, Canberra Raiders, Parramatta Eels, Melbourne Storm, St George-Illawarra Dragons, Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, Brisbane Broncos, Wests Tigers, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Sydney Roosters, Dolphins, Warriors.
Following the unprecedented demand for tickets in 2024 that saw the Sea Eagles sell out eight of their 10 home matches, supporters are encouraged to become a Manly Member now to secure the best seats available. Check out the Membership packages
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One time only
Manly play the following teams just once in 2025: Penrith Panthers. Brisbane Broncos, Newcastle Knights, Gold Coast Titans, South Sydney, Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Sydney Roosters, Dolphins.
Take two
The Sea Eagles only play three of last year's finalists twice in 2025. Here are the teams we play twice: Nth Qld Cowboys, Warriors, Canberra Raiders, Melbourne Storm, St George-Illawarra Dragons, Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, Parramatta Eels, Wests Tigers.
Bye rounds
The Sea Eagles have been allocated byes in rounds 9, 16 and 19.
Home games at 4 Pines Park
Thursday 7.50pm: vs St George-Illawarra Dragons (Rd 7)
Friday 6pm: vs Wests Tigers (Rd 17), Warriors (Rd 27)
Saturday 3pm: vs Dolphins (Rd 25)
Saturday 7.35pm: vs North Queensland Cowboys (Rd 1), Brisbane Broncos (Rd 13), Sydney Roosters (Rd 22)
Sunday 4.05pm; vs Parramatta Eels (Rd 4), Melbourne Storm (Rd 5), Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (Rd 10), South Sydney Rabbitohs (Rd 18)
Sunday 6.15pm: vs Canberra (Rd 3)
Huge advantage...the Sea Eagles will play all 12 home games at 4 Pines Park in 2025©NRL Photos
The Run In
In the run into the finals, the Sea Eagles play the following teams in the last five rounds: Canberra (away), Wests Tigers (away), Dolphins (home), Dragons (away), Warriors (home).
The mileage
The Sea Eagles will travel 17,956 km in 2025. The average team travel next season is 25,109km.
Turnaround time
The Sea Eagles have been allocated the following all-important turnaround times between each round.
- 8 x 6 day turnarounds
- 2 x 5 day turnarounds
- 13 x 7 or more day turnarounds
Demanding times
The Sea Eagles face two very big challenges in 2025 with Manly playing three games in 11 days between rounds 5-7, and three games in 12 days from rounds 10-12.
After playing Melbourne on a Sunday at home in round five, Manly fly to Perth to tackle the Sharks the following Saturday. Manly then back up just five days later to play the Dragons at 4 Pines Park on Easter Thursday.
Following an away game to premiers Penrith at CommBank Stadium in round eight and the team's first bye in round nine, Manly then face their second demanding turnaround schedule between rounds 10-12.
Round 10 sees a Sunday showdown with the Sharks at 4 Pines Park before Manly travel to Townsville to play the Cowboys the following Saturday in round 11.
The Sea Eagles then back up the following Friday in round 12 to tackle the Eels at CommBank Stadium.
Not so 'perfect in Qld'
Queensland, beautiful one day, not many Manly games the next!
Unfortunately for Manly members and supporters up north, the Sea Eagles will not appear in Brisbane next season after missing out on Magic Round (bye), and the Broncos and Dolphins.
The Sea Eagles only travel to Queensland to take on the Gold Coast Titans and the North Queensland Cowboys.
'West Coast' Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles tackle the Sharks in an away game at Optus Stadium on Saturday, April 12, at 1pm (AWST) as part of an NRL Double Header with Souths and the North Qld Cowboys.
Manly have a great record in Perth, winning four of their six premiership matches played there.
Origin period
The Sea Eagles will be without their Origin players in Rd 12 (vs Parramatta), Rd 15 (vs Titans) and Rd 19 (vs Souths).
The State of Origin series kicks off on Wednesday, May 28, at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, before heading to Optus Stadium, Perth, on Wednesday, June 18, for Game two. Game three will be played at Accor Stadium on Wednesday, July 9.
NRL Themed Rounds
The Sea Eagles play the following teams in NRL themed rounds.
Rd 5 Multicultural Round: vs Melbourne Storm, 4 Pines Park
Rd 8 ANZAC Round: vs Penrith Panthers , CommBank Stadium
Rd 9 Magic Round: Bye
Rd 17 Beanie Round: vs Wests Tigers, 4 Pines Park
Rd 24 Indigenous Round: vs Wests Tigers, Allianz Stadium