Fox Sports 2025 Top 4 prediction

[BOZO]

FOX Sports Lab has crunched the 2025 NRL draw to predict next season’s final ladder.

On face value, it delivers another devastating blow to Wests Tigers fans by forecasting a fourth consecutive wooden spoon, while Melbourne Storm are tipped to win back-to-back minor premierships.


However, the projection cannot take into account the major personnel changes that Benji Marshall’s side have welcomed, meaning there’s every chance that Jarome Luai, Terrell May and company will lift the long-suffering club out of 17th place. The projection also cannot account for injuries that may occur. Broncos, Eels and Rabbitohs fans can also note those two points, with their sides forecast to again miss the top eight.
How does it work?

FOX Sports Lab simulates the season 10,000 times over, based on each team’s final rating from last season and the draw for 2025.

The position percentage is based on the number of times in those simulations that a team finished in its designated ladder spot - meaning that the Storm finished first 23 per cent of the time, while Wests Tigers were last in 21.9 per cent of simulations.

Melbourne ran first more than nine per cent more often than the Roosters, who are projected to finish second, while the Tigers were nearly six points ahead of the Titans for the wooden spoon position.
1. MELBOURNE STORM (23.00%) - top eight 85.00%

2. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (13.70%) - top eight 74.70%

3. PENRITH PANTHERS (12.40%) - top eight 73.00%

4. MANLY SEA EAGLES (11.50%) - top eight 71.60%


5. CRONULLA SHARKS (10.30%) - top eight 68.80%

6. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (7.50%) - top eight 62.60%

7. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (5.10%) - top eight 54.40%

8. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (3.90%) - top eight 51.40%

9. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (3.00%) - top eight 44.40%

10. DOLPHINS (2.50%) - top eight 40.30%


11. CANBERRA RAIDERS (1.90%) - top eight 37.60%

12. BRISBANE BRONCOS (1.60%) - top eight 34.00%

13. PARRAMATTA EELS (1.40%) - top eight 29.80%

14. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (1.10%) - top eight 25.90%

15. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (0.50%) - top eight 17.00%

16. GOLD COAST TITANS (0.30%) - top eight 17.00%


17. WESTS TIGERS (0.30%) - top eight 11.80%

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

I think that’s a fair assessment.

We did much better this yesr than the previous.

We will do better next year than this ( injuries aside ).

Top 4 should be the aim.

Good draw , another year under the belt for the existing side.

Still a player or two short ti be a real contender BUT,

Home semi
Win the next one after that
And anything is possible

 

[BOZO]

Top 4 should be the aim.

Anything other than a top 4 and we are going backwards
We will be taking one step forward and one step back again
We need to keep building Momentum and moving forward
and not keep falling back to Mediocracy

 

[maxta]

Roosters missing some big players and have injuries, lower 8 imo and also Tigers who have recruited very well will climb the table, at least a bit

 

[BOZO]

Roosters missing some big players and have injuries, lower 8 imo and also Tigers who have recruited very well will climb the table, at least a bit

At the end of the day and the end of the 2025 season and regardless of their playing roster
Each coach will either over achieve and be Great
or Under achieve and fail to produce

Benjie now has a top 8 roster and Anything other than a top 8 is a failure
Robbo is under the pump with his weaken Roosters Roster and a top 8 spot will be an over achievement

The moral of the story
It is not what you have but what you do with it

 

[BOZO]

Rooster lose
Keary
Jwh
Manu
May
Suali
Tupouniua
Have injures to (long term)
Smith
Walker
Isn’t Sandon Smith also in trouble but will get a slap on the wrist as he plays for the Rooster.

Roosters Loses stem from enforces to grand final winners and game breakers
On paper the Roosters looked crumbled
But games are not won on paper
They are won on the playing field
Interesting to see what team Robbo fields and how capable he is of lifting his players

We rise indeed by lifting others

 

[maxta]

At the end of the day and the end of the 2025 season and regardless of their playing roster
Each coach will either over achieve and be Great
or Under achieve and fail to produce

Benjie now has a top 8 roster and Anything other than a top 8 is a failure
Robbo is under the pump with his weaken Roosters Roster and a top 8 spot will be an over achievement

The moral of the story
It is not what you have but what you do with it

I get your point to a degree Bozo......but if you coached a game, for example as Melbourne coach in a game against Gold coast.......I would think Melbourne would win and win well.....and not to be rude, but I don't think I would rate you near the standard of Des Hasler (the GC coach) ,even regimented in his old stubborn ways....thing is, the cattle (players) and the setup of the entire organisation is the deciding factor and yes, that includes the coaching staff.

 

[maxta]

Rooster lose
Keary
Jwh
Manu
May
Suali
Tupouniua

Have injures to (long term)
Smith
Walker

Isn’t Sandon Smith also in trouble but will get a slap on the wrist as he plays for the Rooster.

And the Rooster are going to improve and finish second.

Still think the Roosters are going to make a big signing.

All is true and there are 100% plans for signings - especially 2026, but unfortunately Robinson is not some messiah that will make them Top 2 with that roster, they had better in 2024 and struggled at times.

 

[Top End Eagle]

Rooster lose
Keary
Jwh
Manu
May
Suali
Tupouniua

Have injures to (long term)
Smith
Walker

Isn’t Sandon Smith also in trouble but will get a slap on the wrist as he plays for the Rooster.

And the Rooster are going to improve and finish second.

Still think the Roosters are going to make a big signing.

Seems like they might be on the hunt for a hooker/halfback. Brandon Smith apparently told if he can get a club for this year roosters will pay some freight.

Him playing in that Croker role Manly has now but pushed to lock when Simpkin or GCKT come on after twenty and the side looks like a real threat.

 

[BOZO]

I get your point to a degree Bozo......but if you coached a game, for example as Melbourne coach in a game against Gold coast.......I would think Melbourne would win and win well.....and not to be rude, but I don't think I would rate you near the standard of Des Hasler (the GC coach) ,even regimented in his old stubborn ways....thing is, the cattle (players) and the setup of the entire organisation is the deciding factor and yes, that includes the coaching staff.

We all have our degree on point of views and we will agree to disagree feathered friend

 

[danny-boy]

If Reuben Garrick stays out of the centres a top 4 position is very realistic.

 

[TJ55]

I wouldn’t give much credit to the Fox Sports Lab predictor Bozo,based off previous years it is wrong and wrong again apart from Penrith and & Storm, this year they predicted the Broncos finishing second lol

 

[jbb/james]

I wouldn’t give much credit to the Fox Sports Lab predictor Bozo,based off previous years it is wrong and wrong again apart from Penrith and & Storm, this year they predicted the Broncos finishing second lol

Yeah , i think its a sign of how desperate Manly fans have become for hope that we are championing the fox bot predictor. manlys weakest links are getting stronger in the squad but we havnt moved the needle in any major way

As always manlys season is based on Tom

lehi is a great fullback replacement, but Tom plays more than fullback in attack, he is our main man. Without Tom we are taking a knife to a gunfight

Good news though 63% of publication tipsters tip us to finish in the top17 and thats a strong stat.

 

[mickqld]

They've picked the same top 8 as this year. Won't happen. At least 2 teams will drop off. Knights and Dogs will fall out of the 8 , Rorters and Manly won't be in top 4.

 

[mickqld]

If Reuben Garrick stays out of the centres a top 4 position is very realistic.

And F.F.S don't put DCE and Garrick defending together. Worst defensive combination in years.

 

[Tragic Eagle]

We blew a top 4 spot this year with some poor performances against lower opposition. I don’t take much comfort from the draw.

 

[Jay Eagle]

We need a quality prop amd second rower to be top 4.. I'm disappointed the club didn't even look at May and they let Lodge walk, so infact we are technically weaker in the engine room .Burbo and Waddell are not the answer we've lost Lawton and now dropped off Bateman again I see us weaker in the backrow.

And the final point, regardless of a "favourable" draw I can't see us winning anything with Croker at hooker and Garrick at centre.

We need to get ruthless
LET GO OF
Waddell
Matterson
James
AND even possibly Burbo

AND sign
A top shelf hooker
A hard nosed Frontrower in his prime
And an athletic ball playing secondrower

How can there be any advances towards a premiership when there are zero advances to our roster.

And PS - move Jake to the front row and ask him to hand back $300k, love the guy but sorry he's not a lock and he's definitely not worth $900k per season.

 

[Ryan]

We need a quality prop amd second rower to be top 4.. I'm disappointed the club didn't even look at May and they let Lodge walk, so infact we are technically weaker in the engine room .Burbo and Waddell are not the answer we've lost Lawton and now dropped off Bateman again I see us weaker in the backrow.

And the final point, regardless of a "favourable" draw I can't see us winning anything with Croker at hooker and Garrick at centre.

We need to get ruthless
LET GO OF
Waddell
Matterson
James
AND even possibly Burbo

AND sign
A top shelf hooker
A hard nosed Frontrower in his prime
And an athletic ball playing secondrower

How can there be any advances towards a premiership when there are zero advances to our roster.

And PS - move Jake to the front row and ask him to hand back $300k, love the guy but sorry he's not a lock and he's definitely not worth $900k per season.

We have some of the answers already I think mate.

Hooker- Simpkin is fantastic
Lock: Caleb Navale looks an amazing player
Back row: If slSiebold is smart and switched on, he gets Arthur on the weights as soon as his foot breaks, bulks him up, and prepares him for that 12 jersey.

I totally need glasses but am in denial. Sorry about the spelling. It's worse at night and in the morning.

 

[BOZO]

I wouldn’t give much credit to the Fox Sports Lab predictor Bozo,based off previous years it is wrong and wrong again apart from Penrith and & Storm, this year they predicted the Broncos finishing second lol

In Regards to the dominating Broncos young talent time team and 2023 Grand finals who were Seconds away from Success ...
Seriously .....Who would not have picked them to make the 4 with that grand final roster ?
The Fox sports and other expert top 4 predictors base their tips on expectations from teams superior rosters

But as we know people do not always live up to expectations
This is why Broncos coach Walters was gone
and all other coaches are under the pump to pump their players up and deliver

 

[Pete W]

We have some of the answers already I think mate.

Hooker- Simpkin is fantastic
Lock: Caleb Navale looks an amazing player
Back row: If slSiebold is smart and switched on, he gets Arthur on the weights as soon as his foot breaks, bulks him up, and prepares him for that 12 jersey.

I totally need glasses but am in denial. Sorry about the spelling. It's worse at night and in the morning.

Agreed, except that I don't think Arthur will be putting on a minimum of 10kg anytime soon. He is extremely slight for his height (weighs less than most halfbacks), and tbh by now I would have hoped he would have put on at least 5kg over the last couple of seasons but if, in fact, he is still at 82kg, no chance he can play in the forwards. Karl Lawton one of the smallest backrowers going around last year and is 12kg heavier than Arthur with a lower centre of gravity.

Definitely Simpkin and Navale should be our predominant 9 and 13 moving forward.