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fLIP

UFO Hunter
Joined
Jul 15, 2004
Messages
7,453
Ok, so im bored, but I thought Id give this a go and see how it turned out.

We all talk about form and how hard it is to guage the top sides so early in the season. What I would guess we all agree on is, the higher the side your playing, obviously, the harder the match is supposed to be. I thought it would be interesting to do a little play on numbers and have a look at who is actually racking up wins against the highest placed sides, and how important it is.

What I have done is, after each round of the season, a side is awarded a certain amount of points, depending on the apparent difficulty of the side they oppose. I have not taken into account injuries, send offs, all that rubbish. Rather I have given teams a ranking by their position on the ladder after every round.

Should you come up against a side like Newcastle, relativly low on the ladder (second last) you would expect (in the grand scheme of things) that the game is a relativly easy win. A walkover you should say and thuse should not count much to a teams form because the Knights are yet to win a match. So, being second last I have given them a rating of 2 points for a win.

Then, should a side beat a team higher on the ladder, say 2nd place, they will be awarded 14 points for the win due to the obviouse good game that has been put on to beat such a high side. This is the case as with every side, and changes from week. One week the Eels may be forth place and giving 11 points if you beat them, and next week are 7th place giving just 9 points for the win. 5 additionial points are added for an away win and the over all standings after each round are tallied and put in a ladder. Mathamatically its fairly accurate as to who is beating the top sides most consistently however not factoring in suspesions, injuries, etc etc will change the results.

Round One:

Bulldogs: 2 points
Eels: 3 points + 5 away points = 8 points
Roosters: 5 points
Sharks: 6 points
Broncos: 4 points
Manly: 7 + 5 away points = 12 points
Melbourne: 1 point

Standings After Round 1:

Manly: 12
Eels: 8
Sharks: 6
Roosters: 5
Broncos:4
Bulldogs: 2
Melbourne: 1
Raiders: 0
Dragons: 0
Tigers: 0
Souths: 0
Panthers: 0
Cowboys: 0
Warriors: 0
Knights: 0

Round 2:

Cowboys: 14
Raiders: 1
Warriors: 12 + 5 away points = 17 points
Storm: 2 + 5 away points = 7 points
Manly: 10
Roosters: 6 + 5 away points = 11 points
Souths: 13

Standings After Round 2:

Manly: 22
Warriors: 17
Roosters: 16
Cowboys: 14
Souths: 13
Storm: 8
Eels: 8
Sharks: 6
Broncos: 4
Bulldogs: 2
Raiders: 1
Dragons: 0
Tigers: 0
Panthers: 0
Knights: 0

Round 3:

Broncos: 12 + 5 away points = 17 points
Panthers: 2
Sharks: 6 + 5 away points = 11 points
Cowboys: 10 + 5 away points = 15 points
Manly: 15
Tigers: 9 + 5 away points = 14 points
Raiders: 11 + 5 away points = 16 points

Standings After Round 3:


Manly: 37
Cowboys: 29
Broncos: 21
Warriors: 17
Sharks: 17
Raiders: 17
Roosters: 16
Tigers: 14
Souths: 13
Storm: 8
Eels: 8
Bulldogs: 2
Panthers: 2
Dragons: 0
Knights: 0

Round 4:

Eels: 4
Storm: 12
Cowboys: 2
Raiders: 1
Warriors: 7
Sharks: 6
Tigers: 10 + 5 away points = 15 points

Standings After Tound 4:

Manly: 37
Cowboys: 31
Tigers: 29
Warriors: 24
Sharks: 23
Broncos: 21
Storm: 20
Raiders: 18
Roosters: 16
Souths: 13
Eels: 12
Bulldogs: 2
Panthers: 2
Dragons: 0
Knights: 0
 

The Wheel

https://membership.seaeagles.com.au/
Premium Member
2019 Tipping Competitor
Joined
Jul 15, 2004
Messages
14,035
Too much for me Flipper
 

Fluffy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2004
Messages
21,161
interesting but in round 1 you awarded the team that had the smallest winning margins
 

fLIP

UFO Hunter
Joined
Jul 15, 2004
Messages
7,453
In both round 1 and 2 I used the round 1 ladder. I should have done this all the way through, using the ladder results directly after the games but I didn't.
 

Fluffy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2004
Messages
21,161
exactly. So if i you beat a team by 1000 in round 1 you scored less than if you beat a team by 1.

just saying that round 1 results are skewed.

As the season continues it becomes more accurate of coarse.
 

fLIP

UFO Hunter
Joined
Jul 15, 2004
Messages
7,453
no. Its on positions. If the team you beat in round one ended up in 10th place f/a, you got 6 points. Nothing to do with F/A, just place on the table. But teams change places and it was purly to do with beating a team in a ceratin spot means X amount of points.
 

fLIP

UFO Hunter
Joined
Jul 15, 2004
Messages
7,453
Yes fluff, your right, oops, didn't understand you, but I should have started from round 2. As the season continues, yes it will become more accurate.
 

fLIP

UFO Hunter
Joined
Jul 15, 2004
Messages
7,453
BUT, if you thrash a team by 1000 points, you shouldn't score high anyway. Because obviously that side is poor.... so very very poor. lol
 

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