Deeper Analysis

[Highflier]

100%. Good assessment. Totally agree.

I think it all went wrong when Des started using Walker as a prop and dropped Sipley. Sipley was effective with his runs. So Walker plays 13 and Jake plays prop. Jake is too small and has no leg drive to be a prop. So effectively playing one prop and going wide early.. worked against the lesser sides. Against the best.. you need to do the basics.

I 2nd that assessment and agree that over the last few weeks not having Sipely on the bench has hurt us for these finals games due to lack of fresh go forward and line bending which he provides from the bench.This was masked to a degree by the fact we were largely flogging lesser teams with our attack so it appeared we could comfortably win with both Walker (who has been excellent) and Lawton(also excellent) on the bench.For these big games I think we needed all the foward power you can muster esp with a group of backs that we have, who we know can create and finish with some space.
Its not rocket science but as I look back on this game and the Melbourne game and the last few weeks of the season it becomes more apparent that with no space created by the foward's all our top shelfer's like DCE Turbo ,etc dont have the space to move as the other side is all over them.But its not this BS about controlling TT its about our fowards not winning the space to play and having that extra fresh bopper on the bench should give us that .

For me next year
-Schu and Walker to the centers ,both will have to drop some kegs but would give us some super strike and I think although the Schu has been fanatstic in his 1st year there is no doubt his best attribute, his attack , has been blunted. (with Parker and Harper as back ups)
-Schu's 2nd row spot to Bullemore
-Sipely on the bench with our normal forward rotation of Keppie/allooai/Paseka/Tapau(if he is here ) / plus Woods (not sure about this) Davey ,Saddler , De Luis,S Fainu (hopefully ready by next year) we would look alot fresher .
-the 4th bench spot could be Lawton/MFainu (hopefully sooner rather than later)/Cust?not sure who else ?

The NSW cup etc s/b back in 2022 and you never know who or what we may unearth out of that and with Scott Fulton ? working a bit of talent spotting magic he may discover a diamond or 2 in the rough

Anyway very disappointed in last night and but have calmed down considerably , but happy for the year overall ,I don't think too many of us would have thought we would be playing off for a GF appearance in 2021 ,and if asked the question after the 1st 4 rounds we would have gladly accepted it .
Go Manly and onto 2022

 

[John Nicholson]

As has happened for many years, if Manly get "a kick in the guts" with a seemingly unfair ref. decision (obstruction) followed by any other negative occurrence, they go into their shell feeling the world is against them.

They need strengthening psychologically in this regard and need attention off field.

Unfortunately DCE is not strong enough in this to pick them up on field and no one seems to take notice of Jake. Maybe he should be (C) next year?

 

[Sea Eagle 4 Life]

As has happened for many years, if Manly get "a kick in the guts" with a seemingly unfair ref. decision (obstruction) followed by any other negative occurrence, they go into their shell feeling the world is against them.

They need strengthening psychologically in this regard and need attention off field.

Unfortunately DCE is not strong enough in this to pick them up on field and no one seems to take notice of Jake. Maybe he should be (C) next year?

The Manly obstruction no-try was how the refs have been adjudicating the rule all season, so it wasn't unfair.
Manly scored 3 tries & nearly had 2 others. I cant see Souths winning the GF as their outside backs defence isn't up to standard & Melbourne will cut them to shreds.

 

[Arko-admirer]

Yep agree @Snake With your analysis

Just went and watched the replay on kayo

Sat through the whole match.

We never gave ourselves a chance.
The errors and miss tries were costly


We were in that game for the first 25 minutes and had our opportunities but couldn't take them.

That was my first preliminary final manly had lost in my lifetime.

That was harder to take than a GF loss when u are so close. Can see why souths wanted to win it more last night 3 PF defeats in 3 years hope we don't go down that path.

You must be pretty young because I am fairly sure (without checking) we lost a prelim in 2012 to The Storm. Sadly I might have even been there

 

[Snake]

Was the make up of the bench wrong for this game? We lacked some forward grunt which was not helped when Keppie was wiped out. Would it not have been better to have an extra prop on the bench such as Sipley rather than carry a “luxury utility” like Lawton? HIAs and injuries occur regularly, particularly for forwards and it feels like we didn’t plan for it.

Croker hasn't been playing 80 mins so I think Lawton was picked as a genuine part of the 9 rotation, more so than just injury cover. Also, Paseka didn't play big minutes so there would have been petrol in his tank if required. I think the game was lost regardless of Keppie's HIA because we played like headless chooks. No amount of bench forwards would have accounted for that.

 

[mickqld]

The lack of forward power play is interesting in the fact what do we do with the Shoe and Jake in the future.

Shoe is all class with the ball, plays wide but rarely takes a hard hit up - with Keppie gone early this was more evident. Is he really going to be a forward long term? I think getting him to 5/8 throughout next year at some stage is required despite what Foz does.

Jake - exceptional defense and good with ball but his hit ups are generally average (seems to tippy toe into the line) - he needs to see Tom’s sprint coach and widened his stride in the off-season.

We a short an aggressive forward or 2 plus we really need a class centre - Parker is Parker and reliable, after a good start Harper didn’t deliver in the finals and was poor to be honest. All our great teams have top line centre - Lyon, Bell, Hill, O’Connor, Gartner, Fulton.

Froggy is another solid performer but is a class below Grant, Cheese, Cook and probably Api. Fainu adds another dimension to our side when and if available - what do we do in the meantime? We need variation and smart decisions at dummy half to give us more go forward and space against these top teams.

Interesting off-season coming with recruitment in key positions critical I feel which will add to an already above average young squad.

Spot on. We need a class center and aggressive hard tough backrower. Hopefully Ethan Bullemore and Andrew Davey coming back can provide that. I love Foz but he's too slow for this game now. Schu to 5/8 eventually next year or 2023 but he needs to drop 10kg and add more speed. The rest are a work in progress. Added we desperately need Manase back. Croker adds nothing in attack.

 

[Snake]

Spot on. We need a class center and aggressive hard tough backrower. Hopefully Ethan Bullemore and Andrew Davey coming back can provide that. I love Foz but he's too slow for this game now. Schu to 5/8 eventually next year or 2023 but he needs to drop 10kg and add more speed. The rest are a work in progress. Added we desperately need Manase back. Croker adds nothing in attack.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying but I thought Foran was one of our better players last night.

 

[davohan123]

You must be pretty young because I am fairly sure (without checking) we lost a prelim in 2012 to The Storm. Sadly I might have even been there

Forget about that one ..I remember it clearly now we got hammered in that game.

Make that 2 preliminary finals in my life time we have lost. Well spotted.

 

[Arko-admirer]

Forget about that one ..I remember it clearly now we got hammered in that game.

Make that 2 preliminary finals in my life time we have lost. Well spotted.

 

[Arko-admirer]

I think it's an easy mistake to make because they kept talking about Des not losing any before last night.

 

[davohan123]

I think it's an easy mistake to make because they kept talking about Des not losing any before last night.

But hasler was not our coach it was 2V in 2012 as our head coach and so last night was the first preliminary final loss for des.

 

[Arko-admirer]

Yes the year after Des did the dirty, Des-picable, unforgiveable... oh... temporary leaving of his home club to do something that ... well let's not talk about that... everything is forgiven... we won't even mention it (I think someone mentioned it before but we may have got away with it)*... we love you Des... in Des we trust!

*You need to be of age to remember a certain hotel-based British sitcom to understand this reference

 

[Rowdy]

First 15 mins:

• NRL a joke. Klein sees Keppie stumbling and clearly a HIA concern but due to criticism from week before, plays on.
• Campbell Graham knock-on not called to gift Souths another fatigue inducing set on Manly line.
• Manly start two sets 10m out; one of which contained only 1 run from a forward (Schuster who made 3 metres). Kick inside own half, Souths start multiple sets from 30m and get a 6 to go off a Harper touch after an attacking raid inside our 40m.
• Costly one on one miss on Gagai from Harper after a good read in defence. Gagai kicks for first Bunnies try.

Next 15:

• finally get the ball and play risky short side with Saab into touch. Needed to hold the ball and build pressure.
• Forwards actually do a good job for next 5 mins. Dylan Walker line speed is excellent.
• DCE earns high shot penalty. We are well in the contest at this point.
• Suli obstruction costs us try (no way Reynolds stops the try but rule is black and white). 6 points begging. We score here and who knows what happens next. Instead, Souths get penalty and start another fatigue inducing set inside our half and earn a repeat set off the back off it.
• Jake gives away set restart after Cook starts playing off back of ruck speed. Forwards starting to look fatigued in D.
• poor read from Saab who didn’t trust Harper leaves open window for Alex J to score. All off the back of weight of possession.
• Haumole steal finally gives us ball. Tom bombs try off back of it. Should be 12-6 and in the game. Instead 7 tackle set with Souths rucking it all the way into our 20 (really poor line speed and a bad read down an edge give Souths opportunity to put in attacking kick and get a lucky 6 more off Haumole failing to clean up grubber). Part luck, part poor defence to concede so many metres. Campbell Graham held up in ensuing set.
• we only manage 30m gain...clearly fatigued. Souths start set in good field position again allowing for an attacking kick. Tom fails to attack bomb, battered back and poor miss from Harper gives Cook the kick for the Walker try.

Game was lost in this 15 minute block IMO. No punch with the ball, bombed tries and no line speed to stop Souths marching into good field position. Forwards really struggled in defence during this period.

Final 10:

• one of our better sets with the ball gives Souths ball back inside own 10m zone. However, line speed not great as Reynolds bombs from 40m out and we ruck from own 10m again.
• DCE into touch of risky short side play. Have to say it was probably a good play and just stumbled. Bit of bad luck here. In saying that, at 18-0 down, do we need to throw that offload inside our own half? Still, Souths have good ball again. Thankfully they make an error due to good pressure from Harper and we get ball back.
• earn set restart and poor error from DCE as he is smashed and drops it cold. Souths run 30m and are in attacking field position again.
• really poor read from Suli gifts Paulo try. At 22-0 in a prelim, the game is over.

I could analyse the second half but at 22-0, the game is done at this point and everything else that happens is a by product of score board pressure. The forced Tom T pass to Harper is a classic example. Campbell Graham scored off the back of it. Another poor read from Suli (with help from Foran).

So, I’m gonna retract my criticism of the forwards. I think they played as well as can be expected given the amount of tackling they had to do. It seems the extravagant style of play and lack of composure and leadership cost us more than anything. We simply use the ball too much and go wide too often. Not to mention when you go wide and get shut down, you gotta ruck it back to the middle off long passing to centre the play again...this does not help build momentum.

Great diligence on your part Snake to go back and watch that game again for your analysis. I don’t think I can bring myself to watch it again

 

[Snake]

Great diligence on your part Snake to go back and watch that game again for your analysis. I don’t think I can bring myself to watch it again

It was brutal but I really wanted to get my head straight about whether our forwards were to blame or not.

 

[Technical Coach]

Do we have a new technical coach now.

Technical Coaches tell you why it is so, journalists recap what has just happened.

All good i need some assistants though and i'm sure Snake will make a good one.

 

[skull61]

On deeper analysis maybe we need to learn how to defend kicks better. Could be something to work on in the off season

 

[Rosko]

You must be pretty young because I am fairly sure (without checking) we lost a prelim in 2012 to The Storm. Sadly I might have even been there

Yes, two PF losses in the past 10 years, none for 35 years before that.

 

[Rosko]

Might be worth a mention in discussing our lack of go forward due to prop rotation, that there is a third front rower. Croker ran for 3 metres.
The other 3 hookers in the 2 games ran for 101 (Cook), 87 (Api) and 56 (Grant).

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

over the last few weeks not having Sipely on the bench has hurt us for these finals games due to lack of fresh go forward and line bending which he provides from the bench.This was masked to a degree by the fact we were largely flogging lesser teams with our attack so it appeared we could comfortably win with both Walker (who has been excellent) and Lawton(also excellent) on the bench.For these big games I think we needed all the foward power you can muster esp with a group of backs that we have, who we know can create and finish with some space.
Its not rocket science but as I look back on this game and the Melbourne game and the last few weeks of the season it becomes more apparent that with no space created by the foward's all our top shelfer's like DCE Turbo ,etc dont have the space to move as the other side is all over them.But its not this BS about controlling TT its about our fowards not winning the space to play and having that extra fresh bopper on the bench should give us that .

I've seen a number of people putting forward this idea.
But the finals matches against both Storm and Souths were lost in the first half (against Storm it was all over after 15 minutes!) A third prop on the bench probably wouldn't have even been used that early.
So while there may be some merit to the idea, personally I'm not convinced of it.

 

[Mataiforever]

So, I’m gonna retract my criticism of the forwards. I think they played as well as can be expected given the amount of tackling they had to do. It seems the extravagant style of play and lack of composure and leadership cost us more than anything. We simply use the ball too much and go wide too often. Not to mention when you go wide and get shut down, you gotta ruck it back to the middle off long passing to centre the play again...this does not help build momentum.

the reason for all the tackling was how poor our line speed was in the middle and on the edge.

we wouldnt pressure them - we'd merely stay at our 10m and absorb their running game.

that is what lost us the game IMO, and that will be the main issue for us not being one of the top 3. our forwards line speed compared to penrith & souths is miles off and needs fixing.