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The run home

Discussion in 'Rugby League Forum' started by Berkeley_Eagle, Jul 11, 2008.

  1. Berkeley_Eagle

    Berkeley_Eagle Current Status: 24/7 Manly Fan 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    NRL's run home in 2008

    By Neil Cadigan | July 11, 2008

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/sport/nrl/story/0,26799,24001110-5006066,00.html

    We've asked Fox Sports Stats, providers of comprehensive analysis and statistics to The Daily Telegraph and Fox Sports, to predict the results of every remaining game and come up with the answers.

    They ran all this season's information on every team through their computers, plus the history of the past seven seasons, and predicted only one change to the current top eight - the injury-ravaged Gold Coast dropping out for the second straight season (they were eighth after 17 rounds in 2007) and being replaced by Parramatta.

    Penrith, its computers deduct, will win four of their last nine to hang on for eighth on 27 points - meaning, for the fourth time in the past seven seasons, the final finals spot will be won by a team losing more games than it won.

    But they see a massive shift between the top six and the rest - with the Sharks finishing eight points clear of seventh - headed by the Sea Eagles finishing with their first minor premiership since 1997, beating Melbourne home on for-and-against.

    Wherever your team finishes, one thing is more evident this year than any other - with five teams rested from last weekend's bye and a gallery of stars returning over the next few weeks in Mark Gasnier, Darren Lockyer, Peter Wallace, Justin Hodges, Sia Soliola, Ben Creagh and Greg Bird _ the starter's gun sounds tonight on a truly run run home.

    Brisbane, with the "softest'' draw, are looming as the danger team - and they sense it. Their players all shook hands yesterday as if they were reporting for their first pre-season session.

    Their non-Origin players had been given eight days off after their round 16 draw with Penrith and, thanks to a bye last weekend, their Origin reps Darius Boyd, Karmichael Hunt, Sam Thaiday and Ben Hannant reported back only yesterday.

    Hunt and Boyd spent a week in Thailand, arriving in Brisbane yesterday morning refreshed, wiping the zinc cream off their lips just in time for training.

    "The timing of the bye after Origin III was perfect for us,'' said Bennett. "You can see how the players have freshened up and there is a real buzz in the place since they got back. We hadn't trained together as a whole squad since May 10.

    "For us it's about getting a good start, holding together during the rep season, then being in good shape to take it home. We're not a tired team as we often have been at this time of year, so that's encouraging.''

    Departing Sharks halfback Kimmorley doesn't want to dwell on it, but he knows how tough these next two crucial months have been for his team for too long.

    There's no hiding from it, they have failed the test for the past five seasons - winning three of their last nine every year except 2006 when they crashed to lose all nine - dropping out of the eight for four seasons straight.

    Yet everyone recognises new steel in the Sharks' make-up, and the benefit of their many close losses last year. And with six home matches, more than any other side, they know a top-four finish is at their mercy.

    "We spoke about going into last weekend's bye on a positive, and with five straight wins having most of the week off, we're in a healthy position,'' Kimmorley says.

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  2. eggson

    eggson Well-Known Member

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    Such a tight comp.  A win tonight will ease the butterflies.
     
  3. Berkeley_Eagle

    Berkeley_Eagle Current Status: 24/7 Manly Fan 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    who you goin for tonight ?
     
  4. The Wheel

    The Wheel Well-Known Member

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    I think the Storm might lose a couple especially if they start resting players as Bellamy has suggested.
     
  5. clontaago

    clontaago Well-Known Member

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    Agreed Wheel I think its a massive call to suggest that they will go through undefeated from here on in, and I also think its a huge call to suggest we will only lose one game.

    Danger games for us apart from Storm are the next 3 rounds and the last round against the Panfers who may well be playing for a finals spot that day.
     
  6. Garts

    Garts Well-Known Member

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    I think we will lose 2 or 3 games, hopefully I am wrong but we have some tough ones coming up.
     
  7. The Wheel

    The Wheel Well-Known Member

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    At the end of the day I guess it does really matter whether we come 1st or 2nd
     
  8. fLIP

    fLIP UFO Hunter

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    I'd like us to be the team that ends the Eels season in the first week of the finals.
     
  9. Dan

    Dan Administrator Staff Member Administrator 2016 Tipping Competitor

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  10. PONTIAN SEA EAGLE

    PONTIAN SEA EAGLE Well-Known Member

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    We have the one more extra away game than most of the top 4 teams.Gee it seems like an eternity since the last game at brookie.
     
  11. weev

    weev Well-Known Member

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    This sort of prediction chart is practically useless.

    Could the game be so utterly predictable that it will all just go according to the state of the comp right now?

    What of the twist and turns, the drama - on and off the field? Injuries, rising stars, new 'tackling' techniques from bellyache, etc.

    No upsets, no late charges, no massive chokes, no golden point nailbiters going against the run. No team pulling out a huge effort to make the 8 against a cruising side trying to avoud injuries.

    This is dribble used to fill-up newspaper columns.

    If it was this dull then lets just cut to the finals now and give Storm the trophy.
     
  12. The Wheel

    The Wheel Well-Known Member

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    You are right Weev - if you look at most tipping comp there are not too many who will get 100% for the rest of the season.

    However I hope the prediction of us being minor premiers is correct.
     
  13. Dan

    Dan Administrator Staff Member Administrator 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Betting agencies wouldn't release the real facts, but I have seen some of the applications that they use and been involved in writing some of one of them, and I can tell you this, their equations for working this stuff out is more accurate than you can believe, sure there is a fair bit of chance involved but they don't mess around when it comes to money.

    On the project we worked on there were several very accomplished mathematicians doing the work that we put into the program!

    However I would say that what they have written here should be taken with a grain of salt
     
  14. eggson

    eggson Well-Known Member

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    who you goin for tonight ?
    [/quote]

    ah my bad, for some reason i was thinking we were playing tonight  :p  all these friday night games you see haha
     
  15. nodd

    nodd Well-Known Member

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    I hope we lose at least a couple between now and the finals. Nothing worse than a bit of complacency going into the big games.
     
  16. Berkeley_Eagle

    Berkeley_Eagle Current Status: 24/7 Manly Fan 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Yeah it does !

    Minor premiers get a cheque of about $100,000
     
  17. Chip and Chase

    Chip and Chase True Supporter Staff Member Administrator Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Gee Cronulla are world class chokers. I really hope we smash them tomorrow and start the rot to see them slide out of the 8 for the sixth year in a row.
     
  18. Canteen Worker

    Canteen Worker Well-Known Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I tip we will lose two or three. Most important thing is to be injury free and fresh going into the semis. No sense being busted up winning an honour that doesn't mean too much.
     
  19. Fluffy

    Fluffy Well-Known Member

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    the storm will be gonski's come finals time as their team will just be too tired. on top of the origin toll they are playing and beating both us and the sharks in round 23
     
  20. weev

    weev Well-Known Member

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    I am sure you are right, but all the equations would change, if say, folau and slater were long-term injured (not to wish that on them, at least not seriously injured  :p)

    I do feel better about our team than last season because there is some fresh talent coming through. See, there is life after Monas!
     

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