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My Dally M theory

Discussion in 'Rugby League Forum' started by mosto, Sep 7, 2011.

  1. mosto

    mosto Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    While the Dally M is a nice individual recognition, it's not something you want one of your players to win. The Dally M Awards have been running since 1980. In that time, only 5 winners have gone on to claim a premiership that year. Ray Price '82, Mick Potter '84, Peter Sterling '86, Craig Gower '03 and Matt Orford '08.

    If one player is collecting the large majority of points for their team, that team is relying heavily upon one person, and more often than not that ain't gonna win you a premiership.
     
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  2. Masked Eagle

    Masked Eagle Well-Known Member

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    RE: My Dall M theory

    Glenn Stewart could easily have won the award last night and if he did would that have meant we have relied too much on him this season?
     
  3. Stevo

    Stevo Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't mean you're a 1 man team. It just means that more often than not 1 player was the best on field.
     
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  4. mosto

    mosto Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    RE: My Dall M theory

    I'm biased but I think that would have been the exception. It's not a hard and fast rule, just an opinion. Johns, Thurston, Hayne, Carney...all Dally M winners whose teams looked very average without them.
     
  5. Kiwi Eagle

    Kiwi Eagle Moderator Staff Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I think 2003 was the year it wasn't awarded
     
  6. mosto

    mosto Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Which sounds suspiciously like the definition of a one man team ;)
     
  7. Fro

    Fro Well-Known Member

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    Bull**** it does, the best out of 13 excellent players is a damn side more effective as a team than the best out of 13 mediocre or poor ones.

    Both of which are the best on the field.

    My Theory on theories, a load of crap :)
     
  8. Cameron

    Cameron Cambo Premium Member

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    My theory is

    Cam smith 3 dally m, that's one for every contract he signed
    Billy Slater 2 dally m's thats one for every contract he signed.
     
  9. King

    King Active Member

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    I think you will find Billy Slater was the only high profile Melbourne player to have signed just the one contract.
     
  10. SeaEagleRock8

    SeaEagleRock8 Sea Eagle Lach Staff Member Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Gee Glen was very close to winning the whole darn thing.
     
  11. mosto

    mosto Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    No doubt, but with the salary cap, who has 13 excellent players?

    Let's forget theories and deal in facts. Why do 5 out of 6 Dally M medallists fail to go on and win the comp?
     
  12. codewana

    codewana Active Member

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    Because there's only a 1 in 8 chance that their team will do it (assuming the Daly M player places in the top 8).

    in 1999, Trent Barret from St George won it and that team were in the finals. Same with Thurston in 2005, Smith in 2006, Hayne in 2009 and Carney last year.

    So of the last 11 awards (no award for 2003), one Daly M winner won the premiership (1/11) and the Daly M's winner side have made the GF six times (6/11).

    1/8 * 11 = 1.375 (this is how many times we should expect the winner of the Daly M award to win the Premiership). Its only happened once, but more than half of the Daly M winners have made it to the GF.

    Based on these facts, I would argue that the teams that make the GF are not one man teams, and that reality is similar to what we should be expecting statistically.
     
  13. mosto

    mosto Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Fair enough, my theory has been shot down in flames. Happy to admit it :D
     

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