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Manly paying 25/1

Discussion in 'Rugby League Forum' started by Cliffy4PM, Mar 24, 2010.

  1. Cliffy4PM

    Cliffy4PM Active Member

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    Am i missing something? Last year after going 2 and 8 our odds blew out to 15/1. This year we have started strongly, blowing two good teams out of the park only to have our massive forward pack wilt in the heat. Its only going to get cooler.
    On last weeks game, with a green halfback i thought we proved our selfs the equal of Parramatta at the very least yet they are paying 5/1 and Manly 25/1.


    TYVM Damian
     
  2. Rambo1987

    Rambo1987 Well-Known Member

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    Last year we were waiting on Brett to come back in round 3. This year we have inexperiened halves and no fullback or winger.

    We will be lucky to finish 8th this year but I only hope we finish higher.  

    :mad:
     
  3. DSM5

    DSM5 Well-Known Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    Parra mugs putting money on their ****e team.  Odds have nothing to do with form or potential.  It's all about where the money goes. 
     
  4. ManlyBacker

    ManlyBacker Winging it Staff Member

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    I took the $26 divie on Tuesday afternoon, also $1000+ divie Manly/Bombers and $132 divie of Dogs/Manly GF quinella. Money down the drain probably but you never know.
     
  5. clontaago

    clontaago Well-Known Member

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    Gees Stu I thought you were a decent punter but you've just proven me wrong  ;)
     
  6. DailyTerrorgraphHater

    DailyTerrorgraphHater Member

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    like the others said, its where the money goes.
    With Brett out till the final rounds again, all but Manly supporters will be putting their money on other teams, thus pushing Manly out to second to last on the line of betting.
     
  7. Central Coast Eagle

    Central Coast Eagle Active Member

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    With Brett gone for the season now, will the odds blow out even more?
     
  8. DSM5

    DSM5 Well-Known Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I would imagine so, but with this blow-out, we're good value. 
     
  9. Central Coast Eagle

    Central Coast Eagle Active Member

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    Yeah that's what I was thinking
     
  10. Cliffy4PM

    Cliffy4PM Active Member

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    The only thing thats stopping me emptying my online betting account is I'm not sure when the last premiers had a rookie halfback. Any ideas?

    Last year even though we had a team that was sooking for most of the year and a halfback that wasn't overly interested it still took the best footy Melbourne has ever produced to knock us out. Im sure the boys have their mind on the job this year.

    I thought Hodkinson was super impressive in his first game in the NRL and Farrar also looks the goods. Our forward pack has probably improved if anything. All in all i think we are in a great position this year. Mind you, i tell myself that every year.
     
  11. DSM5

    DSM5 Well-Known Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I didn't tell myself that at all last season, and you're right, we still finished a credible fifth.  I think, on the games thus far, we play a decent game.  After a lousy official beat us twice so far, all we need is a decent go and we'll be up there.   
     
  12. SeaEagleRock8

    SeaEagleRock8 Sea Eagle Lach Staff Member Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    2010!
    Seriously the comp is more even than ever, we might win. Or come 10th. On what I have seen so far we are better than many other teams and also have more room to improve. How many teams are there? Anything better than 16 to 1 is good odds I would think.
     
  13. Matabele

    Matabele Well-Known Member

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    Can someone explain to me what it means to lay off a bet?  So if you take the 25/1 odds, we go on a winning run, you can lay off the bet at say $15 and you've covered your original investment with a chance to cash in if we do indeed go on and win?
     
  14. Nutzcraw

    Nutzcraw Active Member

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    I think Parra came closest with Tim Smith in 05.
     
  15. Fro

    Fro Well-Known Member

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    that Perry Nuffy with Brisbane?
     
  16. SeaEagleRock8

    SeaEagleRock8 Sea Eagle Lach Staff Member Premium Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    I thought it was making a counter bet to reduce the damage if your first bet goes pear-shaped. Often bookies who have fielded large bets might themselves make a bet with someone else, ie if Manly started to go very well and they thought we might actually win & they would have to pay out a fortune bet at $25  - they might then back Manly with another bookie, even if the price has come in a lot, just to minimise the damage?
     
  17. Jatz Crackers

    Jatz Crackers Moderator Staff Member

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  18. TokyoEagle

    TokyoEagle Well-Known Member

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    That's spot on SER8.
    You can also do it yourself, if you took the 25-1 and manly make the last 4, you could back the other teams for smaller amounts to guarantee getting back your original investment, if Manly won your original bet would pay but you would then have the loss of the money on the other 3 bets.
     
  19. ManlyBacker

    ManlyBacker Winging it Staff Member

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    That is the ideal scenario Matas. The hard part in the past of achieving this was to be able to easily find someone who would take your offering @ 15s. These days though Betfair is around which means you can be both a punter and a bookie. You can probably find someone offering better that 25-1 (maybe 30-1) and place a bet on Manly to win, and when the odds drift back in you play the position of bookie on Betfair offering 15s for the amount of your original bet. You then have the difference between the odds you first got and the odds you got as a bookie going for you for no cost at all, but the payout only occurs if Manly actually wins. Hope that is clear as mud. :)
     
  20. ManlyBacker

    ManlyBacker Winging it Staff Member

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    I missed page 2!
    Both SER8 and TE describe what traditionally is the meaning of 'laying off a bet'. Usually a bookie might have accepted a huge wager to appease a regular client would then lay off part of the bet to other bookies so that damage wouldn't be so great. It did also sometimes mean what you intended Matas. Your original premise of making money IF Manly's odds do shorten is valid and achievable with Betfair.
     

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