"its like a sample group if you will"
I won't. But then hey, I only took statistics for a year at uni, so maybe your training is better than mine when it comes to that.
To be perfectly honest, I agree that they're idiots for believing that it's Mary. Unfortunately, neither you, nor I, nor anyone on this forum know exactly what the mean educational level of those people is. We're just guessing. Plus, your 'sample group' is what? A sample group of "people within driving distance of a single area that believe in God AND in apparitions". Unfortunately your 'sample group' is really not that at all because it isn't random.
If you like, I can point you to some VERY intelligent people that work at the Vatican to show you that "the more intellectual the pre-disposition becomes more and more".
Statistics is hard at the best of times Daniel and unfortunately this incident is not one of those. We have no idea about the educational level of those people or even the circumstances of them being there! Who knows, we might be looking at a 'sample group of people that are willing to feign believing for $50 and the possibility of being on the news'!