Spartan Eagle
Bencher
Some interesting stats. Of note was 7 tries from Roosters came through the edge of Parker, Garrick, Gosiewski and Foran....Foran is arguably the only first grader.
The numbers behind Manly's defensive decline
- Thread starter Spartan Eagle
- Start date
Some interesting stats. Of note was 7 tries from Roosters came through the edge of Parker, Garrick, Gosiewski and Foran....Foran is arguably the only first grader.
The numbers behind Manly's defensive decline
The stats behind the Manly Sea Eagles' defensive decline
www.nrl.com
Manly's worrying defensive downturn of recent years took another turn in round one with the Roosters piling on nine tries with concerning ease.
NRL.com Stats has crunched the numbers behind the decline of the once-formidable Manly defence.
Even with an upward trend in total tries per game last year as a result of the new rules, Manly's numbers are stark.
In this analysis, NRL.com has gone back to 2013 – the year in which more detailed statistics such as location and action of try causes began to be recorded – a period which overlaps with Manly's last two top-four finishes in 2013-14.
In 2015 Manly slipped to ninth and since then have finished 13th, sixth, 15th, sixth and 13th. The years in which they finished 13th or lower are 2016, 2018 and 2020.
Those three seasons are the only three in this analysis in which they conceded four or more tries per game on average, with 4.50 last year the worst and 4.29 in 2018 the next worst.
Their 5.05 line breaks conceded per game last year is also the worst in the eight years in the analysis.
Manly's right edge has become an increasing target for opposition attacks.
While skipper Daly Cherry-Evans is considered one of the best defensive halves in the game, he has had a rotating cast of edge partners in recent years with Curtis Sironen in and out through injury (though less so in the past two seasons), and a changing list of centres and wingers outside that.
Looking at location of try causes – the spot on the field where the problem resulting in the try happened – last year was the worst in the analysis for the right edge (generally patrolled by the centre and winger) with 1.60 causes per game. Neither of Manly's far edges has had a worse year in the past eight years.
There were a further 3.45 try causes per game in the right channel (generally the region from the edge back-rower and half to the centre) last year. The only worse season for either the left or right channel for Manly in the past eight years was that same right side in 2018, with 3.63 try causes per game.
Left side starts poorly
Bearing in mind more than one try cause can be attributed per try if multiple players were deemed to have been at fault, Manly's left side started season 2021 with 16 try causes.Seven of the Roosters' nine tries came on that side of the field, with Reuben Garrick, Brad Parker, Kieran Foran and Jack Gosiewski having a torrid afternoon.
"They were quite vulnerable there," NRL.com expert Brett Kimmorley noted on NRL Teams.
"There doesn't seem to have been much improvement from what they did last year."
Fellow panellist Robbie Farah added their recent defensive record is particularly poor, with the side conceding below 30 points just once in its past seven games.
"They've conceded over 30 points per game over their last 10 games," Farah said.
"That's obviously a trend, there's some concern there. It's something that's been part of their team now for the last 12 months, it's not something they can change over the next seven days."
Tries conceded from kicks with Turbo
Manly have certainly struggled defending kicks in the games Tom Trbojevic has missed. The week after his round six injury last year the team conceded three tries from kicks.The team also conceded 10 in four games to finish the season, which included one game in which the star fullback made a brief return from injury before being hurt again.
It was a similar story in 2019; in round two with Turbo out the Roosters scored three tries from kicks against Manly. He played rounds three and four and Manly conceded no tries from kicks, then he was injured again.
The team conceded 11 tries from kicks in eight games he was out, then he returned and they didn't concede another for a month. There were just three tries from kicks let in in 11 games he played before his next injury.
In the three seasons from 2016-2018 when he hardly missed a game, the team conceded 0.63 tries from kicks per game.
In the games he's missed over the past two seasons the rate is 1.3, or 35 tries from kicks in 27 games the fullback has missed. In games he's played over the past two seasons they've conceded 0.52 tries from kicks per game, or 10 in 19 games.
No easy fix
With no specialist fullback in the top 30, the team will have to make do until Trbojevic returns in a few weeks.The left edge is missing Joel Thompson, with former Eel Andrew Davey promoted to start this week in a move that could stem the tide somewhat.
The task doesn't get a whole lot easier this week with heavyweights South Sydney ready to test out those Manly edges at Lottoland on Saturday.
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The rain might slow them down but still won’t save us.
That left edge is basically "brand new". How many games have Garrick/Parker/Jetski/Foran played as a combo ?? a grand total of 1. Defence is as much about trust and combination as it is about technique.
Funny how many people here were tearing Horhay a new one last year for all his "try causes". LOL, be careful what you wish for. Look at how leaky the RH edge of Suli and Garrick was last year, and who has gone over to the left now ? Be interested to see if Davey goes to the right now that Siro is out, or whether Jetski slips over there. DCE's defence did drop off last year, he's falling off more tackles than he ever has in the past. So we need someone with him to add a bit of starch and stop him getting isolated in one on ones
Funny how many people here were tearing Horhay a new one last year for all his "try causes". LOL, be careful what you wish for. Look at how leaky the RH edge of Suli and Garrick was last year, and who has gone over to the left now ? Be interested to see if Davey goes to the right now that Siro is out, or whether Jetski slips over there. DCE's defence did drop off last year, he's falling off more tackles than he ever has in the past. So we need someone with him to add a bit of starch and stop him getting isolated in one on ones
TagMonster
Reserve Grader
Honestly, my biggest take away from that article was the line "with no other specialist fullback in the top 30"
How the hell do we have 1 fullback and 0 hookers in the top 30..... What the hell do we have then ????
1 and 9 make up half of the spine (arguably the most important 4 positions), yet Manly have next to none of half these positions....
How the hell do we have 1 fullback and 0 hookers in the top 30..... What the hell do we have then ????
1 and 9 make up half of the spine (arguably the most important 4 positions), yet Manly have next to none of half these positions....
JenEagle
Bencher
We let them all go. Api, zdc, levi and Edwin Ipape were our hookers the last couple of years and we allowed them all to leave.
Same at fullback - jade anderson and Elliot were out backups and we let Elliot go. Elliot was great in 2019.
NYEagle
Bencher
Souths are the worst team to play in the NRL when you have defensive woes.
They can be bullied offensively, but in attack if they start to dominate they pick apart defenses out wide better than any other team IMHO. Walker and Reymolds, Campbell-Graham, and Johnstone are absolute pests when on the front foot if you don't have a team that can bully them defensively. Note these guys don't do much in origin.
Regardless of what Manly score, I think if they keep Souths below 24 points in this game it will be progress.
I'm even thinking of going to the game so I stand there in the pouring rain and yell at Little Rabbit Dylan every time he is sluggish to get up. I should be able to a nice spot close to the fence
NYEagle
Koula is a full back and is in there top 30. Hes a kid and Des doesnt throw in kids. But hes an option.
Souths are the worst team to play in the NRL when you have defensive woes.
They can be bullied offensively, but in attack if they start to dominate they pick apart defenses out wide better than any other team IMHO. Walker and Reymolds, Campbell-Graham, and Johnstone are absolute pests when on the front foot if you don't have a team that can bully them defensively. Note these guys don't do much in origin.
Regardless of what Manly score, I think if they keep Souths below 24 points in this game it will be progress.
I'm even thinking of going to the game so I stand there in the pouring rain and yell at Little Rabbit Dylan every time he is sluggish to get up. I should be able to a nice spot close to the fence
NYEagle
The rain might be our only saviour from another shellacking.
On a fine night they’d lap us .......twice!!!!
But we have an abundance of useless wingers
manlyfan76
There is no A.I. Just better computers
And our 5/8 copped another injury on round 1 to add to a long list of chronic injuries.
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2020 Ladder
| Team | P | W | D | L | PD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 74 | 14 |
| 2 | Storm | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 78 | 12 |
| 3 | Warriors | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | Broncos | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 78 | 10 |
| 5 | Raiders | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 46 | 10 |
| 6 | Sharks | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 8 |
| 7 | Dragons | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Cowboys | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -42 | 8 |
| 9 | Rabbitohs | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -44 | 8 |
| 10 | Dolphins | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 6 |
| 11 | Sea Eagles | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 6 |
| 12 | Tigers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| 13 | Titans | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -36 | 6 |
| 14 | Roosters | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -52 | 6 |
| 15 | Knights | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -74 | 6 |
| 16 | Eels | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -107 | 6 |
| 17 | Panthers | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
