NRL Finals 2019: Fixture taking shape with one round to play

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BOZO

Journey Man
Tipping Member
PREDICTED FIRST WEEK OF NRL FINALS

1v4 Melbourne Storm v South Sydney Rabbitohs

2v3 Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders

5v8 Manly Sea Eagles v Cronulla Sharks/Wests Tigers

6v7 Parramatta Eels v Brisbane Broncos

Seven of the eight spots in the NRL Finals series are locked up which means one great of the modern game is set for a tough final round exit.

Melbourne Storm are minor premiers, the Sydney Roosters are locked into second, the Raiders have a top four spot and the Brisbane Broncos are going to have to play all their finals on the road.

But outside of that there’s plenty to be settled ahead of the NRL finals in round 25.

Manly and South Sydney can both claim the final spot in the top four, while Parramatta are likely to finish sixth.

RABBITOHS v ROOSTERS (Thursday 8pm)

A cat-and-mouse contest given these two teams could meet in the first week of finals. The Roosters’ ladder position can’t change so their approach will be interesting. The Rabbitohs haven’t beaten the Roosters or the Storm this season and while they are all but assured of finishing top four, they likely can’t finish third either. Get ready for Melbourne at AAMI Park.

EELS v SEA EAGLES (Friday 6pm)

Parra’s top four hopes were snuffed out in Brisbane but they may get a chance for quick revenge depending on results in the final round. The Eels would need to defeat their arch-rivals by 23 points to climb to fifth, which seems unlikely.

RAIDERS v WARRIORS (Saturday 3pm)

The Raiders are likely to be locked into third win or lose here. And it’s hard to see them losing to the lowly Warriors. A chance for them to build momentum as they get set for a trip to Sydney to take on the Roosters.

BULLDOGS v BRONCOS (Saturday 5.30pm)

The Bulldogs have been in pretty good form of late, so have the Broncos so this should be a decent match. Thing is Brisbane have very little to play for. Only a 90-minute draw between the Sharks and Tigers could see them miss the eight. Realistically they should take care of the Dogs and finish seventh.

WESTS TIGERS v SHARKS (Sunday 2pm)

This is the match with it all on the line. The simple scenario win and you’re in. The Sharks have to bounce back from a heartbreaking golden-point loss to Canberra, while the Tigers flogged the Dragons 42-14 and are riding high.

manly_celebration_190727_ar_284.jpg
 
I think we'll end up against the Tigers at Brookie (5th v 8th). If we win that, then we'll likely get the Rabbits at ANZ in Week 2. If we win that, we would then play the winner of Roosters/Raiders from Week 1.
 
I think we'll end up against the Tigers at Brookie (5th v 8th). If we win that, then we'll likely get the Rabbits at ANZ in Week 2. If we win that, we would then play the winner of Roosters/Raiders from Week 1.
We want to avoid 6th or 7th if we can
We would if results go the way they should we would play the loser of roosters vs raiders ( raiders at home week ) then followed by if we win that the winner of storm vs rabbits week 1 ( storm will win week 1) so storm down in Melbourne.

I would rather be on the other side of the draw as you have laid out.
Staying in Sydney could help us.
 
Incorrect? An Eel win by 12 points would put them to 5th and us to 6th.
Wouldn't make much difference, except we'd play Broncos instead of Sharks/Tigers.
Doesn't an eel win by 12 put them on 30 but 10 points behind?
 
Doesn't an eel win by 12 put them on 30 but 10 points behind?
No it doesn’t because you have to remember we lose what they gain
Every point they win we lose off our points differential
So we would be 66-12= 54 30 competition points
Parra 44+12=56 30 competition points
they would overtake us by 2 on f/a
 
No it doesn’t because you have to remember we lose what they gain
Every point they win we lose off our points differential
So we would be 66-12= 54 30 competition points
Parra 44+12=56 30 competition points
they would overtake us by 2 on f/a
Thanks.
Maths wasn't my strong point.

Though it doesn't make much difference it would still be unbearable to me to be beaten by them let alone the germs get higher on the ladder.
More arse than class...
 
Yesterday we spent a while trying to figure out the chances of us getting a home quarter final on the Sunday 4pm game. If the ladder stays as is, this is what we came up with:

FACTS:
  • Highly likely for there to be an AFL finals game at the MCG on Friday night and Saturday afternoon
  • Sharks v Tigers is on a Sunday - need to attempt to avoid a 5 day turn around

This means:
  • Melbourne will avoid hosting a game on Friday night or Saturday afternoon
  • Manly will avoid hosting on Friday night

Therefore the ideal for us would be:
  • Friday night: Roosters v Raiders
  • Saturday 5.30pm: Eels v Broncos
  • Saturday 7:30pm: Storm v Souths
  • Sunday 4:00pm: Manly v Tigers/Sharks

I’d be happy with anything but Friday, which shouldn’t happen if we play the winner of Tigers v Sharks
 
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Yesterday we spent a while trying to figure out the chances of us getting a home quarter final on the Sunday 4pm game. If the ladder stays as is, this is what we came up with:

FACTS:

  • There is a Rugby game at Bankwest on Saturday night
  • Highly likely for there to be an AFL finals game at the MCG on Friday night and Saturday afternoon
  • Sharks v Tigers is on a Sunday - need to attempt to avoid a 5 day turn around

This means:

  • Parramatta cannot host a game on Saturday night
  • Melbourne will avoid hosting a game on Friday night or Saturday afternoon
  • Manly will avoid hosting on Friday night

Therefore:

  • Friday night: Roosters v Raiders
  • Saturday 5.30pm: Manly v Tigers/Sharks
  • Saturday 7:30pm: Storm v Souths
  • Sunday 4:00pm: Eels v Broncos

There are a few other combinations also, such as if the Rugby lets the Eels play before their game. However I feel like this won’t happen seeing as though the Rugby ‘booked it in’ first. The way the AFL games go this week will also shuffle things around.

Anyways, there’s still hope we could get Sunday 4pm! I’d be happy with anything but Friday, which shouldn’t happen if we play the winner of Tigers v Sharks

Good post. Yes the NRL will avoid any team in the first week of the semi’s getting pushed into a 5 day turn around. They will avoid Tigers/Sharks playing us Friday night. If we played the Broncos we could play Friday (the other possibility).

Only way to get the Sunday game if Parra got Friday night (vs Broncos with a 6 days turn around).EDIT update: Rugby game is this Saturday not Saturday week.

Brookie’s NRL Semi at 5.30pm Saturday 14th Sept (a possibility?). The sunset will be 5.46pm that Saturday (the days are getting longer) so day light at the start of the game. Book it in your diaries to keep that Saturday free the 14th or the Sunday 15th ! Update it could be Sunday 15th Sept 4pm too as Parra's game can be Saturday night!
 
Last edited:
Yesterday we spent a while trying to figure out the chances of us getting a home quarter final on the Sunday 4pm game. If the ladder stays as is, this is what we came up with:

FACTS:

  • There is a Rugby game at Bankwest on Saturday night
  • Highly likely for there to be an AFL finals game at the MCG on Friday night and Saturday afternoon
  • Sharks v Tigers is on a Sunday - need to attempt to avoid a 5 day turn around

This means:

  • Parramatta cannot host a game on Saturday night
  • Melbourne will avoid hosting a game on Friday night or Saturday afternoon
  • Manly will avoid hosting on Friday night

Therefore:

  • Friday night: Roosters v Raiders
  • Saturday 5.30pm: Manly v Tigers/Sharks
  • Saturday 7:30pm: Storm v Souths
  • Sunday 4:00pm: Eels v Broncos

There are a few other combinations also, such as if the Rugby lets the Eels play before their game. However I feel like this won’t happen seeing as though the Rugby ‘booked it in’ first. The way the AFL games go this week will also shuffle things around.

Anyways, there’s still hope we could get Sunday 4pm! I’d be happy with anything but Friday, which shouldn’t happen if we play the winner of Tigers v Sharks
There is no rugby game at bankwest on 14 September
 
NRL finals countdown: Best and worst-case scenarios for all teams in Round 25
Manly Sea Eagles (5th, 30 points)
Best finish: 3rd

Worst finish: 6th

Manly are only two points behind Canberra (third) and South Sydney (fourth) but points-differential looks to be their biggest obstacle in making the top four.

First and foremost, Des Hasler's troops need to trump Parramatta and rack up a decent score in doing so.

With a for-and-against total of 66, it would be a hard ask for the Sea Eagles to catch the Raiders (154).

But if the Rabbitohs (98) suffer a thumping defeat to the Roosters, Manly could leapfrog them into fourth position.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/09/02...rst-case-scenarios-for-all-teams-in-round-25/
 

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