Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey issued a press release last week where he chose the look at the average level of interest rates under the 11 and a half years of the Howard Government and he compared that to the average level of interest rates under the 4 and a half years of the Rudd/Gillard Government.
Mr Hockey concluded that mortgage rates were a touch lower under the Howard government than under Rudd and Gillard. That is indeed a fact using that methodology, although once the lower level of interest rates from May and beyond are included in these averages, it is likely that the average level of interest rates under Labor will move lower than under the Coalition by year end.
That got me thinking about more important economic indicators – in this instance, the unemployment rate. Using Mr Hockey’s methodology and applying it to the unemployment rate, the following facts emerge:
Average unemployment rate under the Howard Government was 6.4%;
Average unemployment rate under the Rudd and Gillard Governments is 5.0%.
Mr Hockey’s methodology had me thinking about Government debt.
I turned to my favourite budget document, Statement 10, and looked at the history of net government debt over the past 20 years or so.
Using the same methodology that Mr Hockey used for interest rates and applying that to Government debt, this is what I found.
Average Net Govt Debt
(% of GDP)
Howard 1996-97 to 2007-08 5.2%
Rudd/Gillard 2008-09 to 2011-12 4.4%
As is obvious, the average level of net Government debt under the Howard Government was 5.2% of GDP; under the Rudd and Gillard Governments it’s been 4.4%.
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2032-mr-hockeys-methodology-applied-to-government-debt